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Author: [College Football] Topic: Tips for novice bettors...
packers1992 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 8/9/2012 7:19:47 PM

Guys every year before,during and after the season we have new posters ask what do i need to do to win in college football. So i came up with a list. I divide the list as universal and opinion. Universal is ones i think we all can agree on. Opinions are mine and most probably won't agree with. So here we go we start with universal:

1. Try to have at least 2 places to bet. Its hard today because of the us gov't not getting their head out of their fools legalizing online betting. Whether you bet online or in vegas etc try to have at least 2 places to play so you can price shop the lines. Instead of getting Mich.State at -7 maybe you can find them at 6.5 etc

2. Pay on time if you lose. will they pay you on time if you win? IDK but as the old saying goes treat others the way you want to be treated

3. Try to specialize in a conference. Whether its the conference your team plays in. Or the one closest to you or whichever you want try to find a conference to specialize in. On here the best is BigEastexpert. Now BEE is great at all conferences but the Big east especially. Sometimes i think he knows if Tino Sunseri's girlfriend is cheating on himbut you get the point

4. Would you bet that game on saturday? I noticed during tuesday night mac games guys saying why do i bet these crap tuesday mac games? Well i try to treat every game as if it were on saturday. If i wouldn't bet the game saturday why would i bet it if the game was tuesday?

5. Get the different football publications. Its 3 weeks to the season now but get as many of these college books as possible.

6. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. I shouldn't have to explain that

7. Its ok to ask for help. It's alright to ask the forum opinions on a game but remember we can't make the decisions for you

8. $100 on UCF pays the same as $100 on Florida. A lot of guys don't understand that when you win $100 on Florida a guy who won $100 on UCF gets paid the same. They don't go sorry you bet UCf you only get $35. Nothing wrong with betting small conference teams. A win is a win

9. Watch games you don't bet. Its okay to watch a game you don't bet. Some of the most fun i've had in football is watching those tuesday mac games and commenting on them in the in game threads. Sometimes you can win a bet later down the line from watching a game then

10. Try to use fans of different teams. A lot of guys on here will help you. When i have a question about a Clemson game i usually ask BoomBoom. Most of the fans on here are realists about their team. Most don't go I think Ole Miss will go undefeated etc.

11. The line is to get equal betting action. The whole point of the line from the bookmaker's point of view is to get the same amount of money on Team A and Team B. So when you go how is Team A a 14 pt fave vs Team B? The whole point is to get equal betting action.

12. I have inside Information. If anyone tells you they have inside information on the game they're liars and frauds and scumbags. There is information you can get on teams from the different newspapers/websites/team sites. But there is no inside information

13. Look for Undervalued favorites and overvalued underdogs. A favorite that isn't getting enough points and a dog that's getting too many. LY i bet Toledo as an 8.5 point dog at Temple. Why? I thought Toledo should've been the dog but not an 8.5 pt dog. They ended up winning the game su.

Now here are the opinions of mine

1. Buy a half point? Yes in certain situations. Probably 3 and 7 are the numbers you should do that on. But not a lot. There was someone on here when Boise State was a 42 pt favorite against someone bought the half point to 41.5. WHY! If you're betting a  42 pt favorite you don't need a half point. You better be sure Boise would kick that team's behind and win by 7 td's

2. I think guys make mistakes with teasers. The mistake is a lot of guys kind of turn up their nose at teasers. I like the standard 2 tm 6 point teaser myself. Like is aid earlier a win is a win.

3. Do i bet parlays? No. It's kind of like that saying i don't drink,chew and i don't despise those that do. Same for me and parlays. I don't bet parlays and don't despise those that do.

4. Personal/health problems? No bets. Its hard enough to win when you have great health and no problems at home. But if your mind is in another place you can't win IMO.

5. You're gonna make mistakes. You're gonna pick the wrong team. You're gonna bet the too big on a loss. Not nig enough on a win. Never make the same msitake twice.

Final thoughts. This is to help out the new posters/bettors to covers. Have fun enjoy the games. Win Money. If you do any/some/or none of these things wll you win or lose? IDK because at the end of the day you gotta pick winners. If you have anything to add guys feel free

 

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#2
Posted: 8/9/2012 7:31:28 PM
Wow, intense and time consuming write up, well done, salutes from the tar heel state
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#3
Posted: 8/9/2012 7:34:42 PM
#s 4, 8, 9, and 13 are the most significant, IMO.
Outstanding list and advice, Packers.
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#4
Posted: 8/9/2012 7:36:42 PM
nc1 i like both teams from your state this year
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#5
Posted: 8/9/2012 9:31:25 PM
"13. Look for Undervalued favorites and overvalued underdogs. A favorite that isn't getting enough points and a dog that's getting too many."

 That's the name of the game isn't it?



"1. Buy a half point? Yes in certain situations. Probably 3 and 7 are the numbers you should do that on. But not a lot."

 JMO but I'd never do it in CFB. I would, however, sell pts.


 Some good tips for newbs 



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#6
Posted: 8/9/2012 9:34:57 PM
Great list!

It is number 4 that gets me....typical degenerate..I like the action.

Another weakness of mine which other are sure to do; even on a Saturday, I tend to bet games that are on TV. Although I want to win at gambling, I also look at it as entertaining, and that TV game is more entertaining when there is something on the line.

As far a parlays are concerned the math never really added up to me, so I do not like to play them myself. I know how the bookmakers get the $100 to win $260 (start with $100 on one game then double down on a second game and you will win $260). IMO the payout should be 4 to 1 less some juice.  With a point spread each game is basically a coin flip. The odds of a coin landing on heads two times in a row is 4:1.

Played parlays when I was younger because I had less money to bet with....betting $5 to win $5...not enough to get excited about so you play those 10 teamers.....might as well by a lottery ticket. (I know the odds are not that bad, but you get my point)

Not a big hedger either....in the long run you are just cutting into the profits by adding juice.

Let's get some money this year!
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#7
Posted: 8/9/2012 9:43:51 PM

Looks like you have your bases covered Pack.....I have a couple addons that I have found to be helpfull.

14)  Do the handicapping and betting BEFORE you start pounding beers on  Saturday morning.  Saturday's are sacred and exciting, but don't place wagers when you are tying one on...and yes that includes the chase bet on Hawaii in the late game.

15)  Don't fall in love with "value" bets.  Lots of guys don't mind losing if they percieve a "value" in a given wager. It is not ok to be ok with losing. A loss is a loss, I don't care if there is "value" there or not........"Value" does not pay the rent, winning tickets do.  

 

Good insights Pack...GL this season.

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#8
Posted: 8/9/2012 9:53:27 PM
Looks good, if the juice is too tempting your probably just giving them $$$!! 4 or more game parlays, just give em your cash!
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#9
Posted: 8/9/2012 9:53:59 PM

Good stuff packers.

I will add one:

If you see a line that looks too good to be true, its not because you are smarter than the linemakers, its because you arent even close to their level and you should immediately second guess yourself.

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#10
Posted: 8/9/2012 10:10:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Good stuff packers.

I will add one:

If you see a line that looks too good to be true, its not because you are smarter than the linemakers, its because you arent even close to their level and you should immediately second guess yourself.


I'm going to beg to differ a little bit on this one. There were lines that were too good to be true. This past superbowl the Giants were +3!!! That was way off. Before they released that I had them at anywhere from -5 to -7 facing either New England or Balt. Add in the injury to Gronkowski before that game and you could maybe justify a pick 'em, but they do darn up all the time. 

If the oddsmakers were that good they wouldn't be making book for some corporate casino, instead they'd be betting their own money and getting rich.
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#11
Posted: 8/9/2012 10:12:20 PM
Good advice. Well done.
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#12
Posted: 8/10/2012 1:09:39 AM
Nice list, well done.

With all due respect, i would like to also suggest the following for you to add to the list:

Dont get tricked by the top 25 ranking of a team! Its very easy for novice bettors to look at #12 vs #24 and think the #12 is vastly superior. This is a 12 spot difference out of pool of 110 teams and the differnce between these teams is often minimal. most of the poles are highly variable and inconsistent.

o
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#13
Posted: 8/10/2012 1:14:14 AM
Should say "polls" not "poles" above...lol....

....and also to add: dont fall in love with teams that have won 3 or 4 in a row and rise into the top 25. Often they have spent so much energy and played with such focused intensityand gotten some lucky breaks for the last few weeks, they are due for a flat performance and or bad luck and lose againsg a good opponent...
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#14
Posted: 8/10/2012 3:42:47 AM
i got some inside info ..lol   true so true
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#15
Posted: 8/10/2012 9:37:25 AM

bob i agree on polls too. But for me i never bet a team based on the top 25. But i think rankings of a team can sometimes affect the number. I mean there's a difference from being 26 and 25 in reality and in thepoint spread

bigvern makes a good point for an honorary mention for the list. Would You bet that Hawaii game no matter the time? If you're just betting Hawaii because you lost that day or you need action at 12 am just hand the place where you bet your money. treat a hawaii game like its a 3:30 game. Thank you bigvern

train i agree with you for the most part about lines too good to be true. Sometimes i get a weird feeling about those games like something doesn't past the smell test

also guys i just noticed this #5 in opinions is supposed to say big. And i made a typo. My Bad

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#16
Posted: 8/10/2012 10:26:38 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rated91:


I'm going to beg to differ a little bit on this one. There were lines that were too good to be true. This past superbowl the Giants were +3!!! That was way off. Before they released that I had them at anywhere from -5 to -7 facing either New England or Balt. Add in the injury to Gronkowski before that game and you could maybe justify a pick 'em, but they do darn up all the time. 

If the oddsmakers were that good they wouldn't be making book for some corporate casino, instead they'd be betting their own money and getting rich.


I understand what you are saying, but that is not quite what I am talking about. First, that line should have been a pk. No way the Giants should have been -5 or -7, and if they had been, thats exactly what I am talking about. Imagine the enormous amount of money New England would have got if they were catching a td in the SB. Second, that was a 2 week set up game, not and average college football game on a saturday when the linemakers have 70 other games to focus on.


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#17
Posted: 8/11/2012 2:55:37 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Good stuff packers.

I will add one:

If you see a line that looks too good to be true, its not because you are smarter than the linemakers, its because you arent even close to their level and you should immediately second guess yourself.



i think most ppl need to realize this one lol

also disagree with big's value comment. like if i happen to cash all my bets one week but they were all -ev that's not going to bode well for the future imo. i mean a casual bettor isn't tabulating ev anyway (most ppl just say i think usc covers enough of the time, not like 57.2% of the time) but i just disagree with the premise that it's not about value. if you're not focused on whether a bet had value it's all just a results oriented coin flip...
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#18
Posted: 8/11/2012 9:13:00 AM
Recommending people buy a half point in college football just loses any credibility the post had.  
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#19
Posted: 8/11/2012 9:39:48 AM
stick that one was in the opinion category not universal
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#20
Posted: 8/11/2012 12:18:14 PM

Great thread!!!

Let me add one to your great collection:

If 70% or more of your gambling buddies are on one side of a game, bet the other side.  If 90% or more, double down!! This works well for me. 

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#21
Posted: 8/11/2012 12:25:02 PM

Hey packers i have bets placed at betonline, and i couldnt get online today....then i found this article, am i just screwed??

BetOnline Poker’s poker client is offline yet again, and players are continuing to be cut off from their poker cash according to recent posts at various online poker forums. Players who have recently signed up for the site are reporting that they can’t even load the software let alone get access to their player admin. Additionally, more allegations of fraud and cash flow problems have also been reported.

**Update: BetOnline Poker’s client is back up and running as reported by Stephen, a company manager representing the company. The site has also fixed up prior funds transfer issues that players had been experiencing around the time this article being written.

The poker room is apparently not that broke because they recently purchased a very high-value domain in Sportsbetting.ag, a signal that the company is ready to become an even more serious player in the sports betting industry. However, while BetOnline has been ramping up their sports betting divisions, poker players have already been waiting for months to cash out and now they are being told it will be September at the very least before any cash MIGHT be handed out – and that’s definitely not guaranteed with the way things are going now.

A new report against the site refers to employee tampering and account hacking on at least 2 BetOnline accounts. A recent thread on Sports Betting Review stated that his bankroll at the site had been completely wiped out after he had $4,000 in it just days before. The player contacted customer service and had a more than frustrating chat with one of the reps there, including a moment where the BetOnline Poker employee admitted he had the player’s password and login number on file. The chat rep apparently needed to verify with him over an open internet chat browser to confirm what it is, something that is normally not . This is clearly the most surprising revelation of the conversation, especially after the company has been experiencing similarly controversial issues with their poker client for months now.

After this particular PR nightmare one would think BetOnline Poker would try to keep its nose clean; however, only more and more negative stories have been popping up about the company and its treatment of players. The above controversy happened only last week, with tons of other news already posted all over the internet for months now. From missing player balances to chip-dumping to Lock Poker accounts, the site is surely showing some tell-tale signs of a pending infrastructure collapse.

Many different gambling forums such as SBR.com and 2+2 have seen thousands of posts that focus on BetOnline and the loss of their cash. Serious theft allegations have been made against the site over the past year and it seems the bad press isn’t going to be ending anytime soon. If you’re curious about some of the more controversial posts regarding BetOnline I suggest reading up on the following links:

BetOnline Poker is ROGUE
BetOnline Poker Issues
BetOnline Employees Know Your Player Passwords

It is with absolute certainty that we here at 4Flush.com DO NOT recognize BetOnline Poker to be a legitimate website at this point. They are completely and 100% rogue and depositing money there would be a dangerous decision, especially considering it may be months before existing payouts may start getting shipped. We’ll keep you covered on this developing story as more information hits other sports betting and poker forums.

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#22
Posted: 8/11/2012 12:29:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rated91:


I'm going to beg to differ a little bit on this one. There were lines that were too good to be true. This past superbowl the Giants were +3!!! That was way off. Before they released that I had them at anywhere from -5 to -7 facing either New England or Balt. Add in the injury to Gronkowski before that game and you could maybe justify a pick 'em, but they do darn up all the time. 

If the oddsmakers were that good they wouldn't be making book for some corporate casino, instead they'd be betting their own money and getting rich.


I think that if the Sportsbook directors who monitor this site
offered their opinion,they collectively state that they would
prefer to get rich by us putting our money at risk instead.
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#23
Posted: 8/11/2012 12:29:43 PM
Great list!! 
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#24
Posted: 8/11/2012 1:23:19 PM
Don't overthink the game, usually first gut instincts are right because with the internet you can find a million facts and stats to support either team, make a choice and move on to next game
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#25
Posted: 8/11/2012 2:13:33 PM
To borrow a quote from lem Banker's book of Sports Betting:

" The harder you work, the luckier you'll get"
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