Posted:
#1
2012-2013
NBA YTD: 2-2 -2.4 units
NCAAB YTD: 0-2 -5.5 units
CFB BOWLS YTD: 2-0-1 +5 units
-------------------------------------------------------
2012-2013 YTD: 4-4-1 -2.9 units
We are in for another entertaining bowl game on national television. These are two very high powered offenses with very mediocre defenses. Both these mediocre defenses have not faced offenses like they will in the Orange Bowl.
Clemson is ranked 24th in scoring offense in the FBS with 33.6 pts/game. WVU is ranked 20th in scoring offense in the FBS with 34.9 pts/game. Sometimes the Joe Public method of handicapping is the best way to look at a game. I have this game finishing in the 80s. I tend to fade the public, but I will grab this number at 62 as I anticipate it to increase to 63 or 64 by kickoff. The O/U opened at 60 and has already moved 2 points.
As for a side, there will be max motivation on both sides here being it is a BCS game and I believe 1 team is most certainly getting blown out. Clemson is coming off a blowout of VTECH in their conference championship. WVU is coming off a win vs a bad USF team. Clemson is 1-4 SU in their last 5 while WVU is 3-2 SU in their last 5. Traditionally, I like to look at how teams are playing coming into their bowl games and Clemson is in a good spot being that usually they would be undervalued here. However, that does not apply here. Both teams lost in their bowl games last year so both will be hungry for wins.
Due to the fact that Clemson is fresh off a blowout, combined with the fact both these teams have been preparing and talking about a high scoring affair for about a month now, Clemson traditionally may come out a little less focused here. Maybe a bit of arrogance in combination with the nerves of a BCS game in January. There are 2 power stats that stand out to me here and they are Yards Per Pass and the Turnover differential. WVU holds the edge in both power stats with 8.3 yds/pass on offense while giving up 6 yds/pass on defense for a differential of 2.3. Clemson on the other hand gained 7.7 yds/pass on offense while giving up 7.1 yds per pass on defense for a differential of .6.
In both of the teams last 5 games, Clemson is -7 in the turnover battle while WVU is at 0. Clemson has been turning the ball over down the stretch as the pressure started to mount. Now that they have achieved their goal of winning the ACC and they are in a BCS bowl and have had a month to correct any issues I do believe this will be turned around. Nonetheless, stats don't lie as I expect Clemson to lose the turnover battle in the pressure packed game.
After all of this, I believe the wrong team is favored in this one. I will wait until closer to kickoff to place my bet as I anticipate MORE public money to come in on Clemson. I am hoping to get 3.5 or even 4. (Just in case this game happens to be close). Anyways, I hope this helps you with your decision. BOL with whatever side you play.
Clemson/WVU OVER 62 -110 3 units
NBA YTD: 2-2 -2.4 units
NCAAB YTD: 0-2 -5.5 units
CFB BOWLS YTD: 2-0-1 +5 units
-------------------------------------------------------
2012-2013 YTD: 4-4-1 -2.9 units
We are in for another entertaining bowl game on national television. These are two very high powered offenses with very mediocre defenses. Both these mediocre defenses have not faced offenses like they will in the Orange Bowl.
Clemson is ranked 24th in scoring offense in the FBS with 33.6 pts/game. WVU is ranked 20th in scoring offense in the FBS with 34.9 pts/game. Sometimes the Joe Public method of handicapping is the best way to look at a game. I have this game finishing in the 80s. I tend to fade the public, but I will grab this number at 62 as I anticipate it to increase to 63 or 64 by kickoff. The O/U opened at 60 and has already moved 2 points.
As for a side, there will be max motivation on both sides here being it is a BCS game and I believe 1 team is most certainly getting blown out. Clemson is coming off a blowout of VTECH in their conference championship. WVU is coming off a win vs a bad USF team. Clemson is 1-4 SU in their last 5 while WVU is 3-2 SU in their last 5. Traditionally, I like to look at how teams are playing coming into their bowl games and Clemson is in a good spot being that usually they would be undervalued here. However, that does not apply here. Both teams lost in their bowl games last year so both will be hungry for wins.
Due to the fact that Clemson is fresh off a blowout, combined with the fact both these teams have been preparing and talking about a high scoring affair for about a month now, Clemson traditionally may come out a little less focused here. Maybe a bit of arrogance in combination with the nerves of a BCS game in January. There are 2 power stats that stand out to me here and they are Yards Per Pass and the Turnover differential. WVU holds the edge in both power stats with 8.3 yds/pass on offense while giving up 6 yds/pass on defense for a differential of 2.3. Clemson on the other hand gained 7.7 yds/pass on offense while giving up 7.1 yds per pass on defense for a differential of .6.
In both of the teams last 5 games, Clemson is -7 in the turnover battle while WVU is at 0. Clemson has been turning the ball over down the stretch as the pressure started to mount. Now that they have achieved their goal of winning the ACC and they are in a BCS bowl and have had a month to correct any issues I do believe this will be turned around. Nonetheless, stats don't lie as I expect Clemson to lose the turnover battle in the pressure packed game.
After all of this, I believe the wrong team is favored in this one. I will wait until closer to kickoff to place my bet as I anticipate MORE public money to come in on Clemson. I am hoping to get 3.5 or even 4. (Just in case this game happens to be close). Anyways, I hope this helps you with your decision. BOL with whatever side you play.
Clemson/WVU OVER 62 -110 3 units
0
Hot Forum Topics
