Va Tech-Michigan Writeup

I really like Va Tech here for a few reasons. Va Tech has all the motivation in the world coming off a huge loss in the ACC Title Game and a blowout loss last year in the Orange Bowl vs Stanford. I love backing teams who everyone is saying doesnt belong here. If Va Tech wins tonight they also set a school record for 12 wins in a year. Meanwhile, Michigan is coming off one of the biggest wins in school history beating Ohio St for the first time in 8 years! The motivation is clearly with Va Tech.

Va Tech has the defense to slow down Michigan. Michigan relies heavily on the ground game as they are 90th in the country in passing. Va Tech has a stingy run defense at 107 yds per game and 3.3 per rush! They matchup well here with Michigan because they can rush the passer as well. If you keep Denard in the pocket hes good for 2-3 turnovers every game! This kid has 14 ints this year and numerous fumbles. I think Va Tech will win the turnover battle which is huge. If you win the turnover battle its 72% likely you win the game. I doubt Michigan's passing game is going to light up an active Va Tech secondary. Michigan's passing game has pretty much been throw it up to Hemmingway and Roundtree and pray they come down with it. That wont work vs Hosley and the others in this secondary.

MSU and Iowa had the personel to run the ball on Michigan and VT certainly does as well with Thomas and Wilson. I also think Thomas can expose Michigans secondary. Michigan is a lot better this year on the backhalf but still unreliable vs good passing offenses. ND ripped this team up threw the air and so did Ohio St. All the other teams Michigan played have mediocre passing games. I think Logan Thomas has a big night with his legs as well as Michigans OLBs are not good.

Michigan is also a very poor road team going 2-2 on the road and they were down 24-14 at half vs NW before an epic collapse by NW 2nd half. How you play on the road is very important come bowl time.

I know people want to compare schedules but both teams played weak schedules. I think Va Tech was a superior road team blowing out Wake, GT, and Virginia on the road while Michigan lost to MSU and Iowa on the road. VT is the best team Michigan played all year while I would argue Clemson is clearly superior to Michigan as well. Dont forgot Michigan didnt play Penn St or Wisky this year and loaded up on cupcakes with 8 home games and 4 road games.

I am a huge Michigan fan and it pains me to bet against them but I know value when I see it. I played against them 3 times this year vs MSU, Iowa, and Illinois. I was clearly right 2 of 3 times. I see this as a bad spot for a Michigan team that is just happy to be here and has no motivation. This offense has been like fitting a square peg into a round hole all year. Denard is just not suited for this offense. I think their defense gets burned tonight too vs all this speed. I think Va Tech hits the high 20s or low 30s tonight. Not taking the points when ML is +125. The wrong team is favored here.

If you think this game was as important as Ohio St than you know nothing about Michigan football. Hoke wont even call them Ohio St. He calls them Ohio. That game was a lot more important than this game.