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B10 Title Game.. Wisky -9.5 vs. MSU

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Posted: #1
That line seems insanely high..

I continue to think while Wisky is the most talented team in the B10, they are also the most overvalued and blow out weaker talent, which is why they get so much love..

Sparty and that D, with Gholston this week, should be able to force Wilson into mistakes, just like in the game in October..

Not sure Sparty wins outright, but over a TD on a neutral field is ridiculous..

thoughts?

 
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Posted: #2
The oddsmakers are pretty much taking the MSU win over Wisconsin earlier in the season completely out of the equation with this line. The line for the first game ended up at around -7.5/8 near kickoff at MSU and assuming the game was played on NF, the line would have been -9/10; which is pretty much what the line we have now. Wisconsin are beastly at home but they aren't very scary on the road in a rough environment. Wisconsin is no different from the beginning of the year, a strong running game with a weak QB, but a slow and vulnerable secondary.

The only time that Wisconsin played on neutral this year was against No-ill and blew out the Huskies. Not a very good sample size. Value clearly lies with MSU, and if you want the 9.5, you better take it now because the line will almost certainly drop.
 
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by Laroja:

The oddsmakers are pretty much taking the MSU win over Wisconsin earlier in the season completely out of the equation with this line. The line for the first game ended up at around -7.5/8 near kickoff at MSU and assuming the game was played on NF, the line would have been -9/10; which is pretty much what the line we have now. Wisconsin are beastly at home but they aren't very scary on the road in a rough environment. Wisconsin is no different from the beginning of the year, a strong running game with a weak QB, but a slow and vulnerable secondary.

The only time that Wisconsin played on neutral this year was against No-ill and blew out the Huskies. Not a very good sample size. Value clearly lies with MSU, and if you want the 9.5, you better take it now because the line will almost certainly drop.


meant to say great QB.
 
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Posted: #4
While I agree that Wisco has more talented than MSU, MSU is more motivated.  I know getting snubbed last year angered the entire program, and Coach D has been seeking revenge all year.  Both teams are thus seeking revenge.

MSU football has had a habit of getting blown out in big games such as this one over the last few years.  As a fan, all I can hope is that this weekend is different, because I'd love to make the trip to Pasedina.  I look for Wisco to punch MSU in the mouth again early, and the game will be won/lost in the second quarter (can MSU withstand the blow and get their own party started).  In week 8, Wisco owned the first quarter while Sparty owned the second AND third quarters.  Best case scenario for MSU, the same thing happens Saturday.  If not, well, PSU showed MSU the way...

Gholston didn't play last time v Wisco, so that should be a benefit for Sparty.  Indoors favors MSU at this time of year because we rely slightly more on the passing game.

All in all, I can definitely see this game going either way (very tight or Wisco blowout), but I will be on Sparty +9.5.  I'll have you note that I lost on Wisco -7.5 in week 8.


 
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Posted: #5
I seem to agree with the above comments

MSU basically spotted Wisky a 14-0 lead and then basically shut down the Badger offense until Sparrty went into prevent D up 14 with 8min left w.o their leading tackler on the DL..

Very surprised Wisky continues to get so much love..
 
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Posted: #6
Wisconsin has not played on a neutral field all season long..The Soldier Field game was a home game for Northern Illinois, as it is only a 40 minute drive each way...
 
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Posted: #7

Rose Bowl on the line and a date w/ Oregon (?).

Connected people might prefer seeing Ducks vs Badgers.

 

 

 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by Quantum_Leap:

Rose Bowl on the line and a date w/ Oregon (?).

Connected people might prefer seeing Ducks vs Badgers.



Absolutely..

you could see in the Wisky/Illinois game, refs did everything they could to make sure WIsky stayed in the game in the first half..

Delany does not like MSU and agree, would much rather see Wisky in the Rose again than the Spartans
 
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Posted: #9

While someone pointed out reasons why Wisconsin came back, don't forget the other side of the coin here. 

First, MSU scored on a blocked punt TD and also on a very short field after Russell Wilson threw one of his 3 interceptions all season.  MSU needed a hail mary on the game's final play to win outright.  If you believe those three things happen again, by all means, take MSU.

Personally, this is a no-play for me as the line seems pretty sharp.

 
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Posted: #10
Fever;  

Your right Whiskey is a home field bully, they are really talented, but they do have issues when away from Camp Randal, the home field advantage they posses when they are home are TOP 3 in the country, to many points for a them to lay for a tough defensive squad, Wilson, Ball, Toon that O line are great, but MSU is not intimidated, that is the key to the game., The fact that the MSU D has faith in the MSU offense is very important.
 
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Posted: #11
Who would draw a bigger tv audience in the Rose Bowl? Michigan St vs Oregon  or Wisconsin vs Michigan St      Tease Wisky down
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by dk1230:

While someone pointed out reasons why Wisconsin came back, don't forget the other side of the coin here. 

First, MSU scored on a blocked punt TD and also on a very short field after Russell Wilson threw one of his 3 interceptions all season.  MSU needed a hail mary on the game's final play to win outright.  If you believe those three things happen again, by all means, take MSU.

Personally, this is a no-play for me as the line seems pretty sharp.

 
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Posted: #13
If we are talking about issues away from home... Wisky is not the team to point out.  They lost their away games on one hail mary pass and lost their other on a "throw'em up, hope he catches it" pass by Braxton Miller.

MSU on the other hand, did not play well at all vs Nebraska and ND. 

That said..  those losses don't mean anything imo.  This game is for the Rose bowl, is in doors, and obviously neutral to both.  They will both be equally prepared and ready for this game.  

imo. Russell Wilson will be the difference and I personally don't think Cousins & Co will have enough in the tank to keep pace.  Although I love MSUs defense (a lot actually) Wisky, imo, just has too much on offense and will be able to score a little more than MSU.  In the end, I could easily see a 10 to 14 point Wisky victory.  

It's going to be one hell of a game..  

 




 
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Posted: #14
 dk is right and I don't think this is a good game to bet on. Compare this to the Saints tonight at home just a few hours, for example. Easy money on the over.

Which defense will come out for either side? Both of these teams play poorly on the road, but I'd have to give the edge to Wisconsin with Ball in the backfield. That being said, Bielema's nowhere near as good as Alvarez, so it's possible MSU will cover.

I'd also like to see Wisc vs Oregon in the Rose Bowl, as MSU looks and plays a lot like Stanford. Which does not bode well for a good match-up.
 
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Posted: #15
Hard game to bet on. I definitely like Wisky, but +9 is a LOT to give in a tough championship game. Mich. St. has the defense to cover, but is their offense gonna show? Gonna be a great game, don't know which way I'm gonna be cheering yet tho. BOL
 
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Posted: #16
I added Mich. St. in a 4 game teaser! + 22.5

Leaning towards Mich St. +9.5 as well.

I also lost -7.5 Wisc week 7......

Mich st. Def should slow down the run and should keep this game close into the 2nd half.....

Goodluck to you all!  

 
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Posted: #17
People have mentioned the blocked punt, blocked FG, and hail mary pass for MSU in the first meeting, but also, MSU didn't commit one penalty in that game!  That's unbelievable coming from them.  They're typically pretty undisciplined under Dantonio.  So, basically, a lot of shit had to happen in order for MSU to win that game, and it was at home.  So, based on that info, MSU gets blown out, right?

However, you're not gonna find a much more motivated team this weekend than MSU.  Last year, they finished 11-1 and ended up in the CapitalOne bowl, while they watched tOSU and Wisky play in BCS games.  If they lose this weekend, they likely end up in that damn CapitalOne bowl again and watch Wisky and possibly Michigan (2 teams they beat in the regular season) play in BCS games.  Sparty is 21-3 in the last two regular seasons, and may only have 2 CapitalOne bowls to show for it?  Sure, this system is fuckin' flawed, we all know that, but MSU knows going in, that they control their own destiny, win=Rose Bowl, loss=CapitalOne Bowl.  Win=Great season, loss=Average season.  

The Sparty running game has been inconsistent all year, but has come on as of late with Le'veon Bell taking over as the main back.  He's a horse and delivers the blow when he runs.  If MSU is able to get him going and play ball control, I see no reason why they can't win SU.  But if the running game struggles, I don't think Cousins can carry this team in this game.  As of right now, I've got no action on this game at all, but the +10 is tempting and I'm probably gonna hit the under.  I would advise anyone backing Sparty to throw a small wager on the juicy ML, hell, MSU has won the last two, maybe they've got Wisky's #.  But.........there is definitely the potential here for Wisky blowout.  

Good luck ya'll, I should be around quite a bit this week to discuss the game with anyone that wants to 
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by bense197969:

People have mentioned the blocked punt, blocked FG, and hail mary pass for MSU in the first meeting, but also, MSU didn't commit one penalty in that game!  That's unbelievable coming from them.  They're typically pretty undisciplined under Dantonio.  So, basically, a lot of shit had to happen in order for MSU to win that game, and it was at home.  So, based on that info, MSU gets blown out, right?

However, you're not gonna find a much more motivated team this weekend than MSU.  Last year, they finished 11-1 and ended up in the CapitalOne bowl, while they watched tOSU and Wisky play in BCS games.  If they lose this weekend, they likely end up in that damn CapitalOne bowl again and watch Wisky and possibly Michigan (2 teams they beat in the regular season) play in BCS games.  Sparty is 21-3 in the last two regular seasons, and may only have 2 CapitalOne bowls to show for it?  Sure, this system is fuckin' flawed, we all know that, but MSU knows going in, that they control their own destiny, win=Rose Bowl, loss=CapitalOne Bowl.  Win=Great season, loss=Average season.  

The Sparty running game has been inconsistent all year, but has come on as of late with Le'veon Bell taking over as the main back.  He's a horse and delivers the blow when he runs.  If MSU is able to get him going and play ball control, I see no reason why they can't win SU.  But if the running game struggles, I don't think Cousins can carry this team in this game.  As of right now, I've got no action on this game at all, but the +10 is tempting and I'm probably gonna hit the under.  I would advise anyone backing Sparty to throw a small wager on the juicy ML, hell, MSU has won the last two, maybe they've got Wisky's #.  But.........there is definitely the potential here for Wisky blowout.  

Good luck ya'll, I should be around quite a bit this week to discuss the game with anyone that wants to 


No one I trust more when it comes to Sparty sports.

Like you said in your 1st paragraph, MSU needed a perfect storm to win that game the first time around. I'm assuming Wilson has a better game, the special teams has a better game, and that MSU commits some penalties (hard to seriously believe a team can go a whole game without getting called for anything). That 1st matchup was 14-0 (yes, Wisky got handed a td lead), and Wilson and Co were driving again until a int.....Take 2 plays out of that game (that int and the blocked punt for a td), and I think you're looking at a 38-17 Wisconsin win. Not taking anything away from MSU, it was a great win, but I doubt everything goes their way this time around.....The linesmakers know this.....


Bense
 
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Posted: #19
Wisky will roll MSU and this line will go up as MSU keeps getting more love ..... and the odds makers know this is more then a 2 td victory for the badgers ....
 
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Posted: #20
Nebraska and ND killed MSU. That is all I need to know.

Wisc lost focus after that first loss then the OSU meltdown. They are focused and will play like we all thought they can to begin the year.

Wisc. 37
MSU 24
 
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Posted: #21

I dont post much....but when I do its usually to try to understand better a guys pick because I went the other way...... I see Wisky winning this game by double digits...maybe a lucky back door cover for Mich St.....dont get me weong, I'm not always correct...who is in this game....and its not a rerally strong game for me....but -9 and under, I'm biting!!!

GL SNF.......always a pleasure reading your thread....solid contributer to the site.

 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by Win12345:

Nebraska and ND killed MSU. That is all I need to know.

Wisc lost focus after that first loss then the OSU meltdown. They are focused and will play like we all thought they can to begin the year.

Wisc. 37
MSU 24

Are you saying that Nebraska and ND smoking MSU carries more weight than MSU beating Wisky head-to-head?  Just curious what ND and Neb have to do with this game/conversation.  You must be one of those guys that doesn't understand situational (dis)advantages.  There was no way in hell MSU was gonna win either one of those games because of the situations.  I'm not gonna explain those again because I already did it before those games were played.  
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:



No one I trust more when it comes to Sparty sports.

Like you said in your 1st paragraph, MSU needed a perfect storm to win that game the first time around. I'm assuming Wilson has a better game, the special teams has a better game, and that MSU commits some penalties (hard to seriously believe a team can go a whole game without getting called for anything). That 1st matchup was 14-0 (yes, Wisky got handed a td lead), and Wilson and Co were driving again until a int.....Take 2 plays out of that game (that int and the blocked punt for a td), and I think you're looking at a 38-17 Wisconsin win. Not taking anything away from MSU, it was a great win, but I doubt everything goes their way this time around.....The linesmakers know this.....


Bense


Thanks TRAIN, it sounds like you'll be on Wisky, I can't argue with that.  Like I said, all signs point to a Wisky DD win, but I think this may be the most motivated Spartan squad for a single game that I've seen in a few years.  The question is, is that motivated squad gonna be good enough to hang around with Wisky, assuming Sparty isn't the recipient of a "perfect storm" like they were in October?  Who knows.  I'll say this, if Wisky jumps on 'em early like the first meeting, you'll win your bet easily 'cuz MSU's floodgates open rather easily when they're away from home.  
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by bense197969:

People have mentioned the blocked punt, blocked FG, and hail mary pass for MSU in the first meeting, but also, MSU didn't commit one penalty in that game!  That's unbelievable coming from them.  They're typically pretty undisciplined under Dantonio.  So, basically, a lot of shit had to happen in order for MSU to win that game, and it was at home.  So, based on that info, MSU gets blown out, right


you have pointed out something very important here and that is
although MSU won on a fluke hail mary

1.- they got lucky as hell
2.- they played as perfect as they could

and yet they needed the help of the gods of football to overcame it and win it

will it happen again---hell no --- so , besides, indoor game in turf field, wisky has the fastest athletes ---- this might be close just a bit before half time--- but i think that i will be it
 
 
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Posted: #25
Just wanted to point out, Sparty recently had 12 guys named to either 1st or 2nd team All-Big Ten teams, so they've got some talent too.  Again, I'm not supporting a bet on either team right now, just trying to throw out some info for the game.  
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