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#1
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution
As the season moves on we have to acknowledge the phenomenon occurring in college football this season. We've all heard the outrageous statistics of the top 9 ranked teams record ATS this season; my question is when or will we see a return to the mean?
At what point do some of these dogs start covering against the cream of the crop?
I see this as a very dangerous position to be in right now, books are raising the numbers on the teams week in and week out and it doesn't seem to make a difference. Betters are still hammering the favorites and having success.
Are the top 9 teams that much better then the rest? IMO we've seen far better teams from Alabama and LSU within the past 5 years. The Alabama 2009 championship team and LSU 2007 championship teams come to mind, along with the Gators '06 and '08 teams.
Gators '06 team: 13-1 overall record with a loss to Auburn on the road 27-17. The played close games against the Vols winning by 1, UGA by 7, FSU by 7. All the close games were on the road or a neutral field.
LSU '07 team: 12-2 overall, with losses to UK in triple OT and Arkansas in triple OT. Every other SEC game they won were decided by 7 points or less except S.C. and Ole Miss.
Gators '08 team: 13-1, a team whose performance can be compared very closely to the top teams of this years NCAA rankings, at least in regards to dominance and even they slipped up at home losing to Ole Miss 31-30.
Alabama '09 team: A team nearly equally as dominant as the Gators '08 team which in my opinion are the two best teams I've seen in college football in at least 10 years. Alabama ran the table and had only two close games but one extremely close call. They beat Auburn 26-21, a game they trailed 14-0 in the first quarter only to dominate the remaining 3 quarters.
But the game that truly sticks out is the game against the Vols, Bama won 12-10 and needed a blocked FG as time expired to secure victory as Tennessee blew a 45 yard FGA.
The reason I went through the struggle of looking through all these great teams seasons of the past 5 years is to highlight the point that we've never seen such dominance ATS and overall by not only the best teams of previous years but the top 9.
My feeling is that either the rest of NCAA is just that bad or we're seeing an anomaly and we must expect a return to the mean at some point.
GL Gents
As the season moves on we have to acknowledge the phenomenon occurring in college football this season. We've all heard the outrageous statistics of the top 9 ranked teams record ATS this season; my question is when or will we see a return to the mean?
At what point do some of these dogs start covering against the cream of the crop?
I see this as a very dangerous position to be in right now, books are raising the numbers on the teams week in and week out and it doesn't seem to make a difference. Betters are still hammering the favorites and having success.
Are the top 9 teams that much better then the rest? IMO we've seen far better teams from Alabama and LSU within the past 5 years. The Alabama 2009 championship team and LSU 2007 championship teams come to mind, along with the Gators '06 and '08 teams.
Gators '06 team: 13-1 overall record with a loss to Auburn on the road 27-17. The played close games against the Vols winning by 1, UGA by 7, FSU by 7. All the close games were on the road or a neutral field.
LSU '07 team: 12-2 overall, with losses to UK in triple OT and Arkansas in triple OT. Every other SEC game they won were decided by 7 points or less except S.C. and Ole Miss.
Gators '08 team: 13-1, a team whose performance can be compared very closely to the top teams of this years NCAA rankings, at least in regards to dominance and even they slipped up at home losing to Ole Miss 31-30.
Alabama '09 team: A team nearly equally as dominant as the Gators '08 team which in my opinion are the two best teams I've seen in college football in at least 10 years. Alabama ran the table and had only two close games but one extremely close call. They beat Auburn 26-21, a game they trailed 14-0 in the first quarter only to dominate the remaining 3 quarters.
But the game that truly sticks out is the game against the Vols, Bama won 12-10 and needed a blocked FG as time expired to secure victory as Tennessee blew a 45 yard FGA.
The reason I went through the struggle of looking through all these great teams seasons of the past 5 years is to highlight the point that we've never seen such dominance ATS and overall by not only the best teams of previous years but the top 9.
My feeling is that either the rest of NCAA is just that bad or we're seeing an anomaly and we must expect a return to the mean at some point.
GL Gents
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