Week 8 Plays

Squeezed out a small win in week 7, not counting a UVA spread/ml bet that I made but didn't post.

Week 7: 7-6, +.3 units

YTD: 17-15, +2.45 units.

Grabbed a bunch of early lines, still looking at more throughout the week.

Arizona -3 (2 unit play). Explained my train of thought in a separate thread, like this one a lot.

Indiana +23. Betting against Iowa covering back to back as a home conference favorite. Indiana getting smacked in Madison gives a few additional points too. I'm aware that this has a shot at hitting 24, but I'd rather the 23 than waiting and seeing a 21 which is entirely possible.

Missouri +7.5. Liked that half a point, good value for a solid home team. May move off this position over the course of the week, may add an ml play or may even middle it if Ok State hits 6.5. Time will tell, but for now, I have a standard play pending on the 7.5.

Kansas +12 (2 units). Watched the OU/Kansas game, they fought hard, it was actually a game for 3 whole quarters. Lot to build off, and it's not the type of gutwrenching, emotional loss that lingers, it's a positive loss that should fire them up in practice for their season's super bowl. Yes, fading K State off all those upset wins, 12 noon game against a team they probably feel they can roll over. Also love that this opened at 14 and took what, 5 minutes to jump two points? That's not a coincidence.

UNC +10.5. Upset I didn't get it when it was dangling at 11, but so be it. I just think it's too many points for a good team with good talent.

Iowa State +20.5. Team had really good mojo until the last couple weeks, now the value is back. Lot of points.

Lafayette -3. Fading Western Kentucky off b2b upset wins, simple as that.

Eastern Michigan +13.5 (2 units). Sad that I missed the hook, but I'll live. Enormous game for both teams but more so for an EMU squad that has always been trash but now has to believe it has a shot at a bowl game, them getting dd points at home in a conference rivalry game is silly considering the circumstances. People will say WMU will rebound off an ugly loss, but forget to factor that losses that ugly linger. These are kids, it's not the NFL where one week the Giants shit the bed against Seattle and come back in 3 days ready to wreak havoc.

Wisconsin -7. Simple value play, got it when it was at 7 really like the play, figuring that if I decide at any point to opt out I can get a lovely middle later in the week. May stick with it, may decide to take Michigan State. Dream scenario is having the -7 and the +10.5.

Still waiting on a few: Umiami (2.5?), Notre Dame (7?), Washington (21?), Southern Miss. Liked Army but hate the early movement, they seem ready to be a hip dog this week.

Good luck to everybody, all productive thoughts welcome.

Check my reasoning in RJ's thoughts thread....really liking this one alot / under as well

adding:

Colorado at +32. So many points.

Umiami -2.5. Better team at home fighting for a bowl berth and building something under Golden. Gtech won't come back if they fall behind by 2 scores.

Still waiting on a few more.

Rutgers ml +110

I just think they're the better team and will find a way to win the game.

A glance at the ATS records of the AP Top 10 college football teams heading into Week 8 might say it all:

1)      LSU (5-2 ATS)

2)      Alabama (6-1 ATS)

3)      Oklahoma (4-2 ATS)

4)      Wisconsin (5-0-1 ATS)

5)      Boise St (4-2 ATS)

6)      Oklahoma St (5-1 ATS)

7)      Stanford (6-0 ATS)

8)      Clemson (6-1 ATS)

9)      Oregon (3-2-1 ATS)

10)   Arkansas (4-2 ATS)