I am playing this week based on BCS rankings and soft schedules for top 10. I looked at week 7 of last year’s schedules and found most of the top 10 teams covered the spread. The ones that did not cover were playing other ranked teams, rivalry games, or were in bad spots in their schedule.
This week, none of the top 10 ranked teams have difficult teams to play, but most are on the road. I am going to take a chance and play the top 8 teams to cover in the same weekend.
LSU -15.5
My top pick this week is by far LSU -15.5 over Tennessee. Tennessee played Florida and had -9 rushing yards and against Georgia they had -20 yards rushing. This led to a lot of passing yards which they were successful with, but now that QB Bray is out. LSU defense will keep Tenn off the field and create enough short fields for LSU to cover 16 points.
Oklahoma -35.5
This is a lot of points after a big rivalry game. I can see Oklahoma having an emotional letdown after beating Texas 55-17 but this is the same Kansas team that little brother Ok St beat 70-28 with 14 of Kansas’ points in the 4th quarter so it wasn’t really that close. Oklahoma doesn’t have an issue running up the score since they beat Ball St 62-6 the week before.
Alabama -25.5
Mississippi lost to Vanderbilt 7-30, and Alabama beats Vanderbilt 38-0, yet the line is only 25.5 because Alabama is on the road and Miss may be desperate after going 0-2 in the SEC. . Alabama still has one of the best defenses and Miss will be lucky to score 10 points.
Wisconsin 1st half
4th ranked Wisconsin is a 40.5 pt home favorite over Indiana. Wisconsin just beat 8th ranked Nebraska 48-17 so they may be a little worn down from that. Indiana gives up over 400 yards offense against weak teams like N Texas. I could see a repeat of something like last year’s score 83-20, but don’t think the coach will let it get that bad. I will be taking Wisconsin at the 40.5 if it is on the parlay cards but would be more comfortable taking the 1st half score off the board.
Stanford -21
Washington St’s toughest opponents were San Diego St and UCLA and they lost them both. Stanford is considerably better than both of them and are continuing to run up the scores to get Luck the Heisman.
Boise St 1st half
Boise St is 5-0 against the spread in the 1st half but only 3-2 for the games because they are given high spreads and allow back door covers when their backups play. Colorado St has been able to score the last few weeks and I almost expect them to put up some points in the 2nd half which could back door this large of a number.
Oklahoma St -7.5 over Texas
Texas had a pretty weak schedule going into last week against Oklahoma. They are playing with mostly freshman and sophomores so they will get better, but not this week. Last week they allowed Ok defense to score 21 points off their turnovers alone and Oklahoma still racked up over 450 yards offense, with 350 by passing. Oklahoma St defense may not be as good as Oklahoma’s, but their offense is just as explosive. Texas secondary is not good enough to stop their passing attack.
Clemson -8.5 over Maryland
Clemson is 5-0 against the spread. Their defense has been great and the offense scores enough to cover the spread. Maryland was down 21-0 until the 4th quarter last week before losing 21-16 against Ga Tech who played their worst game of the year. Clemson has the better defense and more balanced offense than Ga Tech and they should cover by at least 10.
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