Ok, we have a Thursday night matchup in which the Falcons where blown out by a good offensive team in the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. At no point did I think they would lose by that much but they did throw up 33 points on a decent Irish defense. The Falcons are ranked 2nd in rushing offense and 107 in passing offense. They haven't done too well defensively giving up points.
San Diego State has played TCU losing by 13 while Air Force lost by 16. All the models have this game pegged between 3-6 and hence the spread of 6. San Diego State's strength statistically wise is turnover margin ranking 8th nationally. This is a tough stat to measure as expected regression is expected.
Air Force has dominated this series except for last year as they were defeated away by two points. The Falcons play Boise State next week while San Diego State plays Wyoming. It's easy to say that Boise State is an expected loss and this week is a chance for a win. I like taking defensive teams on the road and the Aztecs aren't the defense to bet one. They rank third to last on defensive rankings (ahead of the Falcons) who rank dead last. Last weeks 59 points to the Irish really didn't help their cause.
I can't trust a defense who's almost last to stop a rushing offense who is third in the country on the road on a nationally televised game that the home team was embarrassed the previous week.
I really think the offense of the Falcons will control the clock, dominate the line of scrimmage and come out with a 14-17 point victory.
Ok, we have a Thursday night matchup in which the Falcons where blown out by a good offensive team in the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. At no point did I think they would lose by that much but they did throw up 33 points on a decent Irish defense. The Falcons are ranked 2nd in rushing offense and 107 in passing offense. They haven't done too well defensively giving up points.
San Diego State has played TCU losing by 13 while Air Force lost by 16. All the models have this game pegged between 3-6 and hence the spread of 6. San Diego State's strength statistically wise is turnover margin ranking 8th nationally. This is a tough stat to measure as expected regression is expected.
Air Force has dominated this series except for last year as they were defeated away by two points. The Falcons play Boise State next week while San Diego State plays Wyoming. It's easy to say that Boise State is an expected loss and this week is a chance for a win. I like taking defensive teams on the road and the Aztecs aren't the defense to bet one. They rank third to last on defensive rankings (ahead of the Falcons) who rank dead last. Last weeks 59 points to the Irish really didn't help their cause.
I can't trust a defense who's almost last to stop a rushing offense who is third in the country on the road on a nationally televised game that the home team was embarrassed the previous week.
I really think the offense of the Falcons will control the clock, dominate the line of scrimmage and come out with a 14-17 point victory.
The Trojans looked impressive after a nice comeback over the Arizona Wildcats last week. Barkley was unstoppable and was very impressive and living up to all the hype. USC has 1 lone loss coming on the road vs a decent ASU team by almost 20 points.
California has lost two in a row both to quality teams including a blow out loss vs the Ducks. They werent too good on third down conversions but had over 450 yards of offense. I'm expecting an offensive battle as the market has pushed the opening number of 56.5 to 59 at some books.
The number opened at 2.5 and has now seen 3.5 but was quickly bought back to 3 in most spots. 60 % are on USC's moneyline and spread but it keeps hovering around the 3 mark.
I'm disagreeing with the market here and expect a close exciting Thursday night game that California will eventually pull out. My deciding factor is the away loss by USC which really stands out to me. Neither defenses are much to talk about.
The Trojans looked impressive after a nice comeback over the Arizona Wildcats last week. Barkley was unstoppable and was very impressive and living up to all the hype. USC has 1 lone loss coming on the road vs a decent ASU team by almost 20 points.
California has lost two in a row both to quality teams including a blow out loss vs the Ducks. They werent too good on third down conversions but had over 450 yards of offense. I'm expecting an offensive battle as the market has pushed the opening number of 56.5 to 59 at some books.
The number opened at 2.5 and has now seen 3.5 but was quickly bought back to 3 in most spots. 60 % are on USC's moneyline and spread but it keeps hovering around the 3 mark.
I'm disagreeing with the market here and expect a close exciting Thursday night game that California will eventually pull out. My deciding factor is the away loss by USC which really stands out to me. Neither defenses are much to talk about.
I felt like Cal+3 was backwards, and I got +4!! Is USC commanding that much market favor?! Barkley is good; great even compared to Maynard. But given what both teams have done this season, I would've expected Cal-1.5 or even pk to open.
I felt like Cal+3 was backwards, and I got +4!! Is USC commanding that much market favor?! Barkley is good; great even compared to Maynard. But given what both teams have done this season, I would've expected Cal-1.5 or even pk to open.
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