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Author: [College Football] Topic: Talking SEC wk 7
cerealkillas send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 10/9/2011 6:44:17 PM

Last week 4-9

ytd 17-15 + 5.6 units

Some thoughts from last week

1. Alcohol + old college buddies = drunken gambling...drunken gambling =  

2. Conner Shaw did the smartest thing he could this weekend. He threw early and often to Alshon Jeffery. That kid is a beast and should get at least 10 opportunites per game. That being said it looks like South Carolina might be able to make the most of all of that talent and preseason hype.

3. Dear Coach Boom if you can't stop the run you cannot play in the SEC. Thats two weeks in a row your d-line and linebackers has been gashed. Auburn is not nearly as physical as LSU or Alabama but you can bet your behind they will feed Dyer the ball again and again (Bc they refuse to throw it even when they are down 3 td's in the fourth quarter)

4. Coach Saban thanks for lighting a fire under your offense at half time that was a much needed cover for me.

5. Miss St your still garbage, but Tyler Russell seems to run the offense a lot better than Relf.

6. November 5 is going to be the best college football game we have seen in awhile. 

7. Barrett Trotter there's nothing wrong with putting a little touch on the ball. This is not the major league you don't have to throw 90+, although your receivers didn't give you much help. As soon as Fraiser learns to throw it to the right team he will have your job.

8. Mark Richt my hats off to you. You went into knoxville and beat the Vols. Your bulldogs look like a much better team than the guys that toted that behind whooping from Boise.

Thats about it for my thoughts. Two losing weeks in a row, time to buckle down and get back on track.

GL this week boys

 

 

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Posted: 10/11/2011 7:26:20 PM

Georgia -10 (-120) 2 units

Alabama -25.5 1.5 units

Florida -2 - 2 units

LSU -15.5 - 2 units

South Carolina -2.5 - 3 units 

Geez thats a lot of chalk

Write ups later

 

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Posted: 10/11/2011 7:53:28 PM

Ga -10 @ Vandy

Georgia has gotten better each week since the first two in which they lost to Boise and South Carolina. The defense seems to finally be grasping the 3-4 defense Todd Grantham installed last year. The last 4 games they have given up an avg of 3 yds/play, after giving up 5.5 and 5.9 to Boise and South Carolina the first two games. With the exception of South Carolina, Georgia has only given up over a 100 yds rushing to Boise St. In short Georgia's above avg defense should have little problem with Vandy's terrible offense (avg 4.4 yds/play) especially with QB controversy

Georgia has the offensive potential it just has not shown up on the scoreboard...yet. They avg 5.7 yds/play, Aaron Murray has a 150 passer rating, Crowell is really starting to run the ball well and avg close to 5 yds/carry. The last two games Vandy has given up over 5 yds/play and I think Georgia will continue this trend. Georgia's defense should be able to force a turnover and several three and outs to set up good field position for that offense that is bound to come out of its shell and put some points on the board.

Final Ga 30 Vandy 7

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Posted: 10/11/2011 8:03:15 PM

LSU -15.5 @ Tennessee 2 units

Tennessee just coming off a loss that effectively sends them out of East contention, Tyler Bray out for a month at the least, and LSU coming to town...Not a very good week if you are a Vol. LSU could be primed for a let down performance, but even with a let down i think this defense has too much swagger to let Tennessee cross the 50 with no running game and mediocre passing attack. LSU has avg over 30 pts/game with the exception of Miss St. They should have no problem putting 30 + on Tennessee.

Final LSU 35 Tenn 3

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Posted: 10/11/2011 8:36:15 PM

South Carolina -2.5 @ Miss St.

South Carolina finally go smart and kicked Garcia off the team. Last week Conner Shaw showed its not just the Marcus Lattimore show anymore in SC. That was a big boost of confidence that will carry over into this week's game in Starkville.

I'm not sure who Miss St. will start at QB, but neither Relf nor Russell will do well against SC's athletic front especially with one of the nations must disruptive DT playing (Melvin Ingram). Since the Auburn game Miss St. has struggled offensively (just over 4 yds/play) and defensively (avg 5yds/play). Miss St has given up over 140 yds/game on the ground with the exception of La tech who rushed for 107. They have yet to see Marcus Lattimore or a back of his equal. He will soften up that defense for Shaw and Jeffery to connect on some big plays. South Carolina's defense has struggled against the run but with Miss St's lack of a passing attack SC will put 8 or 9 in the box and force the QB to beat them through the air. Something Miss St. has not been able to do all year.

Final SC 27 Miss St. 13

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#6
Posted: 10/11/2011 8:41:05 PM
Love the Georgia play....
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#7
Posted: 10/11/2011 8:51:00 PM
Cereal, I have to go against you again this week on my favorite, UGA. This is the kind of game they have become notorious for playing down to the level of their competition. Vandy has no offense and will struggle to score, but the Dawg offense will step in and help them out. The offense still looks undisciplined and erratic. Crowell is the only one I'd rely on (other than Mitchell who won't play with a bad hamstring). UGA wins, but not by DD. Like the LSU pick, and my head tells me you are right about the Cocks, but something doesn't seem right about that game and the line movement.
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#8
Posted: 10/11/2011 8:52:24 PM
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#9
Posted: 10/11/2011 9:28:36 PM
Really like Alabama, not afraid of the spread.
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#10
Posted: 10/11/2011 9:50:21 PM
Love the teaser with Bama, LSU, USC pays +130
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#11
Posted: 10/12/2011 1:08:24 AM
First off I'd just like to say really like the write ups because I was curious as to what some people were thinking about some SEC games.

Definitely with you on South Carolina, LSU and Bama

 Good Luck This Week 
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#12
Posted: 10/12/2011 1:09:48 AM
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#13
Posted: 10/12/2011 1:25:24 AM
Too much love for South Carolina for the line to be dropping... I played them as soon as they came out but will probably buy it back... Bigger game for MSU and Shaw is inexperienced on the road in an SEC environment


Be careful 
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#14
Posted: 10/12/2011 1:39:23 AM

I think this is the second best bet in the SEC behind LSU's 15 1/2.    

 

My guess before seeing spread was    South Carolina @ Miss State 28-10 S.C.-18 O/U 38, over 35 under 50

S.C. really came alive against Kentucky, they seem to have found a much better QB in the back up QB he looked great against a tough Kentucky D, they can really pass the ball now, I’m really impressed with the offense now, that Alshon Jefferies is looking unstoppable.

The Play here is: S.C -3 ½

Why: S.C. is on fire now, they will certainly win this game by a field goal. I do not see an upset here in any way, this team can run and pass equally now, they dominated Kentucky who is not that bad at D at all. MISS ST did play LSU very close; I chalk that up to more LSU looking ahead to the West VA showdown. I think this is a sure shot at 3 ½.

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#15
Posted: 10/12/2011 1:44:17 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cerealkillas:

South Carolina -2.5 @ Miss St.

South Carolina finally go smart and kicked Garcia off the team. Last week Conner Shaw showed its not just the Marcus Lattimore show anymore in SC. That was a big boost of confidence that will carry over into this week's game in Starkville.

I'm not sure who Miss St. will start at QB, but neither Relf nor Russell will do well against SC's athletic front especially with one of the nations must disruptive DT playing (Melvin Ingram). Since the Auburn game Miss St. has struggled offensively (just over 4 yds/play) and defensively (avg 5yds/play). Miss St has given up over 140 yds/game on the ground with the exception of La tech who rushed for 107. They have yet to see Marcus Lattimore or a back of his equal. He will soften up that defense for Shaw and Jeffery to connect on some big plays. South Carolina's defense has struggled against the run but with Miss St's lack of a passing attack SC will put 8 or 9 in the box and force the QB to beat them through the air. Something Miss St. has not been able to do all year.

Final SC 27 Miss St. 13

Dead on bro, I have not seen much of MISS St, but saw enough of S. CAR to kow they should be any average team by a touchdown, and MISS has shown themselves to be barely average, they did get up for LSU somehow but still dont see a repeat type of effort and SCAR passing attack is actually probably better than LSU's or at least in that 1 game against Kentucy the passing was sharper and more dominat thans LSU's passing agaisnt the same kentucy D-

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Posted: 10/12/2011 3:23:22 PM

Atlanta - I have the seen some of those games where Georgia plays to the level of their competition. For some reason I have a feeling that they finally get it together this weekend. If Murray doesnt turn the ball over, Georgia's defense should keep Vandy in single digits. Might up my bet on LSU. That gamecocks line is fishy i thought it would come out around 7. I realize Miss St played LSU tough at home, but that was a thursday night prime time game that meant a lot more to Miss St than an 11 o clock SC game.

Laroja - Bama just looks good right now

Hdoug -  just put in a teaser just like that

kbaise -

Corley - I have to disagree that its a bigger game for MSU than SC. What is Miss st. playing for at this point? They are out of the west race. South Carolina is still a major player in the East and therefore need this SEC win more. GL this week bud

BigMan - If Shaw plays like he did last week SC should roll Miss St. I don't see him throwing for 300+ again by any stretch, but I think he will make a few plays with his arm, and a few with his legs...the kid runs a 4.6. As long as he doesn't turn the ball over we should be in good shape.

 

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Posted: 10/12/2011 4:05:32 PM

Bumping Bama up to a 3 unit play

In years past Houston Nutt has been dangerous as an underdog especially when he is back into a corner. This is no longer the case with this Ol MIss team. Teams are avg 5.6 yds/play and btw BYU, Vandy, and GA their offense only managed 3.5 yds/play. None of these teams have the quality of defenders Bama has. Ol Miss will not score a TD imo, and will be lucky to put 6 pts on the board. Ol Miss has allowed over 200 yds rushing 3 times this year already to Souther Ill, Vandy, and Georgia. Trent Richardson is looking for the Heisman, and he will be doing his damnest to hit the 200 total yds mark which should be achievable against this porous defense.  

Final Bama 38 Ol Miss 6

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#18
Posted: 10/12/2011 4:22:20 PM
I like the Bama, LSU picks...florida not so much with that true freshman behind center. BOL to you bro
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#19
Posted: 10/12/2011 4:25:24 PM
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#20
Posted: 10/12/2011 4:32:50 PM
MONEY! Couldn't have said any of it better... I actually agree with everything you said about Georgia, but I can't seem to bet that game this weekend. Something about it scares me.... I guess I have seen Vandy pull too much garbage out of their fools this season, and Georgia not consistently impress me. Keep in mind, Vandy did a DAMN good job of keeping Bama under wraps for at least half that game, and that is saying something. 
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Posted: 10/13/2011 7:55:12 AM

tbarrera

teaser

tappy

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#22
Posted: 10/13/2011 8:09:01 AM
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Posted: 10/13/2011 4:42:23 PM

Fla -2 @ Auburn

Fla coming off two blowout losses to the two best teams in the nation and looking to bounce back this week. Right now Auburn's offense is really struggling to score points. They have been moving the ball well, but when they get inside the 30 they tend to turn the ball over. In the last two games they have 7 turnovers. Granted two turnovers were on trick plays but they are turnovers none the less.

Auburn's offense will continue to center around Mike Dyer getting the ball 25+/game. Florida knows this and will put 8 guys in the box to stuff the run. Florida tried to do this against LSU and Bama, but both of those teams have deep, experienced, and big offensive lines that can still get a push against Florida's athletic but smaller d-line. Auburn doesn't have these huge well rounded lineman, and Florida should be able to stuff the run forcing Barrett Trotter to beat them with his arm. With Auburn's top two receivers still banged up I don't see this happening. Last week against Arkansas Auburn had more drops than completetions.

Florida's offense has been bottled up the past two weeks against a quality defense. Auburn doesnt have a quality defense. They have greatly improved since the beginning of the year but still struggle to tackle, and are very susceptible to the big play. Auburn's d-line has been getting a better push as of late, but Charlie Weis will be throwing three step drops all night for several reasons. 1. It gives his rookie qb's easy/confidence building throws. 2. keeps his jersey clean 3. you dont have to go deep against Auburn quick hitters to Rainey will be the ticket Saturday. Auburn will not be able to tackle him in space.

On the flip side if Auburn's freshman qb can make some plays through the air. Enough to keep the defense off balance Auburn could win the game. But the chances of that happening are very slim.

Charlie Weis > Ted Roof

Final Fla 31 Auburn 24

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