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NCAAF Week 5

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Legend
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Posted: #1
Week 1: 3-3, -0.20 units
Week 2: 3-4, -2.00 units
Week 3: 5-2, +2.70 units
Week 4: 2-3-1, -0.85 units

YTD: 13-12-1, -0.35 units

Locking in this one, current line on Bookmaker right now:

1. Boise State -27.5 (-110), 2.2 to win 2


Leans:

Houston -17.5
Idaho +17.5
UCLA +22 (think this could steam to 24?)
Iowa State +10
North Carolina -7
Fresno State -5

Good luck to everyone this week
 
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Posted: #2
would love your thoughts on Fresno as I haven't seen them play and can't look away from an SEC team getting five against a non-SEC team even if they're on the road.


I realize Ole Miss looks terrible and can't score or pass, but if you have some sort of info about Fresno stopping the run well or what they like to do on offense (I would assume Pat Hill still likes to run) I would really appreciate it
 
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Posted: #3
They can throw the ball, David Carr's little brother Derek Carr is the QB, I've followed him since HS ball. Good arm and pocket awareness. Stadium will be psyched to get an SEC team at home, even if its the worst one. Carr has got better every game, throwing for 150 (1 TD, 1 INT), 254 (1 TD, 0 INT), 235 (2 TD, 0 INT) and 371 (5 TD, 2 INT). If Vanderbilt can take Ole Miss behind the woodshed at home, Fresno State should be able to do the same on the West Coast
 
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Posted: #4
Fresno State has been run on the first three games giving up 152 on the ground to Cal, 219 to Nebraska, 216 to North Dakota (yikes!) and then a paltry 44 to Idaho. Very surprised they stuffed the run as well as they did against the Vandals
 
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Posted: #5

GL this week

 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

Fresno State has been run on the first three games giving up 152 on the ground to Cal, 219 to Nebraska, 216 to North Dakota (yikes!) and then a paltry 44 to Idaho. Very surprised they stuffed the run as well as they did against the Vandals


the athlete advantage is so substantial on the Mississippi side, I'm just not sure they will get beaten unless the travel to the west coast takes a huge toll OR if they've given up now that Houston Nutt is on his way out.

the backdoor should be closed because I'm not sure Ole Miss can march down the field throwing the ball late if they're down 10, but they should be able to run the ball especially after looking at those numbers and this will be a whole new type of defensive speed that Cal and Nebraska can't match.

Thanks for the info buddy, the law school ship has sailed so no need to send that letter, ha 
 
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Posted: #7
Anyone else liking UCLA catching more than 3 TD's against Stanford? Think those guys don't remember getting blasted 35-0 on national television last year?
 
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Posted: #8
Best of Luck
 
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Posted: #9
Eff me, UCLA down to +20... I was totally wrong on what way that line was going to move


 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

Anyone else liking UCLA catching more than 3 TD's against Stanford? Think those guys don't remember getting blasted 35-0 on national television last year?


me me me

I was wrong on the movement, too, and I'm not exactly excited to fade Andrew Luck
 
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Posted: #11

Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

Eff me, UCLA down to +20... I was totally wrong on what way that line was going to move


Give it time....it should creep up throughout the week.....

 

 
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Posted: #12
I'm hoping TRAIN is right, early action on UCLA to drive it down and then late action in the week when the rec. players see "OMG Stanford only laying less than 3 TDs against crappy UCLA"
 
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Posted: #13

Line on UCLA will move back up. Now is the time to play Stanford if your gonna do it.  I see Stanford willing by 21 but not by more than that.

However, UCLA is not very good

 
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Posted: #14

Just remember one thing if Texas can score 49 points on them what will the likes of Andrew Luck do.....backdoor cover possible.

Stanford 1st half is my play

 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by Carolinashaun:

Just remember one thing if Texas can score 49 points on them what will the likes of Andrew Luck do.....backdoor cover possible.

Stanford 1st half is my play



Texas got handed 3 INTs in the first quarter courtesy of Kevin Prince. He won't see the field in this game, that's potentially a 42 point swing of three possessions
 
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Posted: #16

Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:



Texas got handed 3 INTs in the first quarter courtesy of Kevin Prince. He won't see the field in this game, that's potentially a 42 point swing of three possessions

 

Dude please UCLA manages to score 20 points all game and you want to talk about a 42 point swing.  They couldn't score 21 points in three quarters and you think they could have in just one.  Texas was what -4 at game time and without your 21 points still would have covered  28-20.

Stanford currently #1 against the run. Not much stock in this because they have played heavier passing teams.

 
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Posted: #17

Good Luck in your plays.  I just don't like UCLA play.

Beware of Houston play no defense

Also Carolina has had their way with ECU past two years.  I like the over but there is a reason its only -7

 
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Posted: #18

BEST OF LUCK!

AP

 
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Posted: #19
 
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Posted: #20
 
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I have learn not to bet against Stanford of late and it has been a good decision. They are a cover machine .
 
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Posted: #23
with you on Boise St.  they will run the ball all over Nevada.  Fresno St. will be pumped up for this game.  they are laying 5 for a reason. 
 
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Posted: #24
1. Boise State -27.5 (-110), 2.2 to win 2
2. Houston -17 (-110), 1.1 to win 1
3. Idaho +17.5 (-110), 1.1 to win 1
4. Iowa State +10 (-110), 1.1 to win 1
5. North Carolina -6.5 (-110), 1.1 to win 1
6. Fresno State -5 (-110), 1.65 to win 1.5

Still holding off on UCLA hoping to do better than +22


 
 
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Posted: #25
1. Boise State -27.5 (-110), 2.2 to win 2
2. Houston -17 (-110), 1.1 to win 1
3. Idaho +17.5 (-110), 1.1 to win 1
4. Iowa State +10 (-110), 1.1 to win 1
5. North Carolina -6.5 (-110), 1.1 to win 1 
6. Fresno State -5 (-110), 1.65 to win 1.5

Week 5: 2-4, -4.05 units


Week 1: 3-3, -0.20 units
 Week 2: 3-4, -2.00 units
Week 3: 5-2, +2.70 units
Week 4: 2-3-1, -0.85 units
Week 5: 2-4, -4.05 units

YTD: 15-16-1, -4.40 units
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