Today Is Saturday, And While Baseball Is My True Passion, Football Makes Me $$$$

87-68-3 +57.2 units

All 5 weeks have been on the plus side. No looking back...lets keep the train going foward. Got some big favs today which could be a bit worrisome or blowouts as expected. Should be fun.

Temple/Northern Illinois Over 49
Risking 3.3 units to win 3 units
The gameplan, for both teams in this matchup, is RUN. And both teams have some trouble stopping the run. Temple allows 174 yards on the ground while NIU allows 150 on the ground. Temple averages 168 on the ground while NIU averages 241...led mainly by Spann. Running doesn't stop the clock as much in college than the NFL with the clock stopping on every first down. If niether team can stop the run, both teams are going to get into scoring position relatively quickly. Moving the chains should be easy for both teams in this matchup. Also...I expect a close matchup with a possible overtime which would make this one easy. But...a 31-28 type of game seems reasonable.

Indiana/Ohio St. Over 57.5
Risking 3.3 units to win 3 units
Indiana's offense is VERY strong. I don't expect them to put up their average (39 points) against the Buckeye's stingy defense...but I don't think 17-21 is out of the question. But the majority of the points will come from Ohio St. Indiana's first true offensive test was last week against Michigan. They gave up 42 points AT HOME against the Wolverines. Now they're on the road against Ohio St. who will keep you off balance, move the chains at will, and throw up 40 with ease. Pryor is fine and will have a ball facing this Hoosier defense.

More to come.

BOL All. Have A Great Day.

BOL,  I like the Temple team being able to buckle down and make red zone stops, yet feel they will be allowing a lot of FG opps. You make some good points though, however, I am rolling with this UNDER. 23-21 N.Illinois

Syracuse/South Florida Over 45.5
Risking 5.5 units to win 5 units
Both these teams have put lots of points on the board, averaging over 30+ each on the season. Maybe it's beacuse they've both had weak schedules...or maybe you can look at it another way. Their defensive numbers look really good. Both teams only allow 16 ppg. But maybe THAT is because of the weaker schedule. When USF faced Florida...they gave up 38 and when Cuse faced Washington...they gave up 41. Both teams are well balanced on offense and they find a weakness on the opponents defense, they can continue to expose it. This line is way to low imo.

Texas Tech PK
Risking 3.3 units to win 3 units
I don't trust Baylor. They've only face 1 good team, TCU, and got murdered. TTech has faced 2 good teams. They beat SMU and lost by 10 to Texas. It's been forever since Baylor has beaten TTech and I expect it to continue. TCU was the only offensive threat Baylor has faced this season and they didn't handle it well. And they were on the road. TTech's offense should expose Baylor and, after last week's debacle, they must have a serious chip on their shoulder.

Tennessee +11
Risking 3.3 units to win 3 units
I know...it looks too good to be true. Kinda like VTech giving up 3 TDs against ECU. However...I just can't support this Bulldogs team. They haven't shown anything and were just beaten by Colorado. AJ Green is certainly a play maker and will be a difference in this game. But the only difference he'll make, imo, is the difference between a win and a loss, not a cover. I think UGA will be pumped up for this game. I think they'll get their first SEC win...but the Vols have been way too competitve to pass up on a number like this against a team with some serious problems. Tennessee also has had a much tougher schedule than the Dogs and that should really help them. Last weeks lost will be REALLY tough to bounce back from but they'll at least keep it close.

Bowling Green/Ohio Over 51
Risking 3.3 units to win 3 units
As I said last week...any total under 55 posted for Bowling Green is a must take. Whether Schilz or Pankratz is taking the snaps for BG...they should still be able to put up points. Ohio isn't an offensive juggernaut but BG is a very poor defensive team who allows about 37 ppg and 511 yards per game. BG has given up 28 points twice this season. That was the least they have given up in a game and both of those were in their 2 home starts. So put it together and they're even worse on the road. Bowling Green overs are like a protocol.

Michigan St. +4.5
Risking 3.3 units to win 3 units
Michigan has faced bad defenses this season. They're 5-0 because they've outscored their opponents. Defense is not their strong suit. They allow 25 ppg and 433 yards per game. Michigan St, on the other hand, has played some solid defense, only allowing 18 ppg. Beating Wisconsin was a huge last week for Michigan St. I don't see a top win like that for Michigan. Scoring 34 against Wisconsin is an impressive feat. Michigan St. is just more well rounded. I understand Denard Robinson is an absolute beast...but while he won't be stopped, I think he may be contained and Michigan picks up their first loss.

Utah St. +1
Risking 3.3 units to win 3 units
LaTech has problems stopping both sides of an offense. That is a problem facing a team like Utah St. who can score both ways. The combo of Borel and Speight should really be too much for LaTech to handle. Since throwing 3 INTs against Oklahoma in the opener...Borel has only thrown 1 INT in his last 4 games. The Aggies have had some bright spots this season. The Bulldogs have shown no life anywhere. Utah St. gives up 383 yards per game while LaTech gives up 482 yards per game yet they both allow 29 ppg. So, looking at stats alone, it seems as if Utah St. has a problem with the "big play". Well...LaTech doesn't have big threats on offense. LaTech doesn't even know exactly who their starting QB is. Maybe Jenkins won it last week but they have 3 guys getting snaps and that doesn't equal big plays.

Oregon -36 & -21 (1st Half)
Risking 3.3 units to win 3 units (Both Game & 1st Half)
Last season, Oregon won 52-6 against Washington St. While the team is different now...I have no reason why the score won't be similar. The Ducks average 56 ppg while the Cougers allow 42 ppg. The Cougers score 21 ppg while the Ducks allow 15 ppg. Washington St. showed some signs of improvement last week against UCLA...but Oregon is a completely different animal. Washington St. allow over 250 yards both on the ground and through the air. Oregon can kill you both ways too. This just spells disaster. Throw out the fact that Washington St. is a D1 team...this could be a very similar blowout to Oregon's thumping of D2's Portland St. where they won 69-0.

Navy/Wake Forest Over 48
Risking 5.5 units to win 5 units
Navy has had problems scoring this season...but they have had no problem running the ball. They average 256 yards on the ground per game while Wake Forest allows 182 yards per game on the ground. Wake Forest has a serious problem stopping offenses. WF's defense is absolutely dreadful, allowing 441 yards per game and 36 ppg. Everyone and their brother is putting up points against this horrid defense. Aside from FSU, teams have had problems stopping the Deacon's offense too. Even with the shutout by FSU, they're still averaging 30 ppg and they seem to put up more at home (42 ppg). Navy put on a terrible offensive effort against Air Force. I didn't expect that low of a score but can they really get shut down twice in a row? This may be the easiest defense Navy has faced this season and I think they show that here. I think Navy may win 35-24.

Northwestern -8.5
Risking 4.4 units to win 4 units
I've you've seen my plays recently...you know I'm not a fan of Purdue. They have not done anything to deserve being favorites yet continue to get lines. Now...after a week off...they are finally big dogs, as they should be. However...this line is not enough. Northwestern has averaged just about 30 ppg this season with a defense that allows only 18 ppg. Purdue's starting QB, Robert Marve, is now out for the season, so Rob Henry will be making his first start of his career, in the Boilermaker's first conference game of the season. On top of that...it's on the road. This just spells disaster for Purdue. Purdue's defense is pretty good...but their toughest offensive opponent was Toledo where they gave up 31 points. I expect a similar outcome here.

Mississippi St. -5.5
Risking 4.4 units to win 4 units
Houston may be home for this one, but without Case Keenum, how are they going to score on Miss. St? The Bulldogs were already good against the pass, but they can also stop the run. In their first game without Keenum, Houston's QB Broadway went only 19-28 for 174 yards, zero TDs and an interception. They relied heavily on the running game behind Beall who had 4 TDs and 123 yards on 24 carries. And lets just say Tulane isn't exactly a top tier team. The Bulldogs have already played in 3 SEC matchups so this should be a piece of cake. Their defense allows only 16 ppg while Houston allows 26 ppg. This will be just too much for Houston.

Quote Originally Posted by jwheels86:

GL buddy

Yankees must have scared the shit out of you guys in game 1.

I've learned to never worry when it comes to Yankees v Twins. One way or another...the Yankees will come around in the 7th inning or later. It's just inevitable.

Mich St Sparty

ML

New Mexico St. -2.5 & -.5 (1st Half)
Risking 3.3 units to win 3 units (Game & 1st Half)
Just like Bowling Green Overs on totals set at under 55...I've vowed to always bet against New Mexico. While I was following how bad they were and how big of a fade they were, I should have been paying attention to their rival, New Mexico St. They have been just as bad. However...I'll take the home team here. New Mexico's leading rusher, Demond Dennis, is not playing this game because of disciplinary reasons. as if this team wasn't bad enough offensively. I know Matt Christian is questionable for NMST, however, I just feel more comfortable going against New Mexico. Week in and week out I'll continue to be against NM. The loser of this game will go 0fer this season while the winner with go 1fer. After this game...I'll be fading both of these teams every week.

Stanford -10
Risking 4.4 units to win 4 units
USC is smoke and mirrors. They're still trying to find themselves. Stanford, on the other hand, knows who they are. They know that they can easily finish this season with last week's 1 loss. They put up a great effort in the first half but was absolutely a no show in the 2nd half. Stanford knows that they're going to probably be a top 5 team come season's end. All the talent is there and it's led my Andrew Luck. Barkley is good but he hasn't faced a defense like Stanford's. Stanford had great defensive numbers until Oregon, but you better expect a turnaround performance after being embarrassed by that. USC's running game is well established and they could possibly attempt to control the tempo but Stanford is too strong offensively to be down to long at any point of this matchup. Stanford will roll all over USC here. Expect them to come into this game with a chip on their shoulder and make a serious statement.

Fresno St. -10.5
Risking 3.3 units to win 3 units
Usually...Hawaii getting points is a good thing. Especially when it's double digits. However...I think this is a bad spot for him. I know Moniz can exploit any secondary, but Fresno has a really good pass defense. They only allow 124 yards per game through the air. And since Hawaii doesn't run at all, if Fresno can contain Moniz, there is no telling what kind of blowout this could be. This will be Hawaii's 3rd road game of the season and, without a doubt, their toughest one and probably second toughest game overall this season. Hawaii is one of the best home teams in the country, year in and year out, but they aren't the same team on the road and I think this line is asking for you to take Hawaii. Sometimes I throw that out the window, but when it works in my favor, I feel a bit more confident (if that makes sense).

Nevada -38 & -23 (1st Half)
Risking 3.3 units to win 3 units (Game & 1st Half)
The ppg differential is basically this line alone. San Jose St. averages a D1 low with 9.8 ppg while Nevada averages 44.6 ppg which is the 4th most in D1. Add that SJST allows 31 ppg and are in Nevada for this game...it just smells like a blowout. They allow 171 yards on the ground while Nevada averages 303 yards on the ground. I really have nothing much to say about this one. Kaepernick is one of the biggest playmakers in college football and he'll get the cover himself. Nevada won this matchup 62-7 on the road last season and I really don't think this will be any less.

i cover UH and u couldn'tbe more right... perfect spot for either/or -- no in between -- a UH crazy-ass win or 17-20 pt. ass whoopin...

all over STAN n ORE w/ u... they should both roll by 7-10 on each respective spread...

only one i differ on is BAY/TT -- i think Bears win by a TD, but BOL either way... nice w-ups

  Goodluck with your 8K in plays   

I expect them to win but I wouldn't put money on it. Actually...I'm mulling over the idea of taking the Twins for the first half. I really like that play but my love for the Yankees is making it hard for me to pull the trigger...even if it is only the 1st half.