Razorback season ticket holder here... i'm as confused as i can possible be on the line dropping to 5??? WTF? i went to this game last year and i have followed Hogs very closely for 15+ yrs now... only of line that seemed this confusing was when USC came to town (opening game '06) and we all knew that USC -6 seemed to good to be true and sure enough USC beat us 50-14.....
i thought line would open at 10 give or take a point and i liked the Hogs at -10... Everyone around here thinks we r the bet... I have 3 or 4 people who don't even bet usually try and lay down $500 bets on Hogs this week.. What can Vegas possible know that we don't??
Razorback season ticket holder here... i'm as confused as i can possible be on the line dropping to 5??? WTF? i went to this game last year and i have followed Hogs very closely for 15+ yrs now... only of line that seemed this confusing was when USC came to town (opening game '06) and we all knew that USC -6 seemed to good to be true and sure enough USC beat us 50-14.....
i thought line would open at 10 give or take a point and i liked the Hogs at -10... Everyone around here thinks we r the bet... I have 3 or 4 people who don't even bet usually try and lay down $500 bets on Hogs this week.. What can Vegas possible know that we don't??
When i saw this line i thought it was strange. To answer your question on what does Vegas knows that we don't? They know A LOT my friend! Vegas has hundreds of people and access to every imaginable stat known to man before they come out with the lines. When i see a line like this it makes want to sell my house, cars, takeout my 401K, and IRA to bet this game.
Vegas puts the line like this out for the casual gambler. A casual gambler would take Arkansas all day long and why wouldn't we? Arkansas the 11th ranked team in the country only giving -5 to Texas A&M seems like a for sure bet.
It's Vegas's job to make the line appealing to the public. I have seen this too many times, but the key is picking out those games and unloading on them. Harder said then done i know.
I have plenty of examples of games like this both in Pro and college. EXAMPLE: Colts giving Jacksonville +7 where the line should be easily +12. All money went to the Colts and we all know the results of that one.
My money is on the AGGIES. Hogs might win but it's going to be a close game where A&M will lead and spend most of the game protecting a 7-10 lead.
If you don't believe me take a look at the college and Pro lines. Don't bet on them but just look at the outcome.
When i saw this line i thought it was strange. To answer your question on what does Vegas knows that we don't? They know A LOT my friend! Vegas has hundreds of people and access to every imaginable stat known to man before they come out with the lines. When i see a line like this it makes want to sell my house, cars, takeout my 401K, and IRA to bet this game.
Vegas puts the line like this out for the casual gambler. A casual gambler would take Arkansas all day long and why wouldn't we? Arkansas the 11th ranked team in the country only giving -5 to Texas A&M seems like a for sure bet.
It's Vegas's job to make the line appealing to the public. I have seen this too many times, but the key is picking out those games and unloading on them. Harder said then done i know.
I have plenty of examples of games like this both in Pro and college. EXAMPLE: Colts giving Jacksonville +7 where the line should be easily +12. All money went to the Colts and we all know the results of that one.
My money is on the AGGIES. Hogs might win but it's going to be a close game where A&M will lead and spend most of the game protecting a 7-10 lead.
If you don't believe me take a look at the college and Pro lines. Don't bet on them but just look at the outcome.
i agree with some of your points but disagree with others.. Colts -7 at Jax was right... Jax has a history of plying Indy close and Indy can't stop the run (esp on road) Indy really can't run it all that well either... I think -4 or 5 should have been the line and they go to 7 b/ Indy is a public team... i do agree every casual bettor loves hogs here (a.k.a sucker bet) But sucker bets don't miss 100, 90 , or even 70% of the time... i know this.. VERY INTERESTING LINE.... i will layoff
i agree with some of your points but disagree with others.. Colts -7 at Jax was right... Jax has a history of plying Indy close and Indy can't stop the run (esp on road) Indy really can't run it all that well either... I think -4 or 5 should have been the line and they go to 7 b/ Indy is a public team... i do agree every casual bettor loves hogs here (a.k.a sucker bet) But sucker bets don't miss 100, 90 , or even 70% of the time... i know this.. VERY INTERESTING LINE.... i will layoff
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