when the auburn line opened at minus 3, 85% was on auburn. reverse line movement has everyone scratching their head and either staying away or choosing MSU. auburn now at minus 1 and only 77% on them. now those who chose miss st only get one point whereas normal line movement should have them getting 6 or 7. so now vegas has gotten money off of auburn while giving the losing play less points to play with. auburn should win tonight by 10 plus
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
when the auburn line opened at minus 3, 85% was on auburn. reverse line movement has everyone scratching their head and either staying away or choosing MSU. auburn now at minus 1 and only 77% on them. now those who chose miss st only get one point whereas normal line movement should have them getting 6 or 7. so now vegas has gotten money off of auburn while giving the losing play less points to play with. auburn should win tonight by 10 plus
I believe it makes perfect logical sense to be able to sway a bettor off of the favorite all the while giving the underdog less points. Enlighten me as to how it is not. There is a greater percentage on state now at +1 than there was at +3. The only reason for this is that every one is scratching their head because vegas is trying to confuse them. I dont believe anyone actually said "hey i think i will take state now that they are getting less points." No. Its because vegas has them fooled and thinking state actually has a shot at winning. I may eat my words, but I have my money on Auburn. And i got it at -3. excuse any typos as i am posting from my phone. more chat later when i get home
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I believe it makes perfect logical sense to be able to sway a bettor off of the favorite all the while giving the underdog less points. Enlighten me as to how it is not. There is a greater percentage on state now at +1 than there was at +3. The only reason for this is that every one is scratching their head because vegas is trying to confuse them. I dont believe anyone actually said "hey i think i will take state now that they are getting less points." No. Its because vegas has them fooled and thinking state actually has a shot at winning. I may eat my words, but I have my money on Auburn. And i got it at -3. excuse any typos as i am posting from my phone. more chat later when i get home
when the auburn line opened at minus 3, 85% was on auburn. reverse line movement has everyone scratching their head and either staying away or choosing MSU. auburn now at minus 1 and only 77% on them. now those who chose miss st only get one point whereas normal line movement should have them getting 6 or 7. so now vegas has gotten money off of auburn while giving the losing play less points to play with. auburn should win tonight by 10 plus
My thoughts exactly!!! PGGL BUDDY!
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Quote Originally Posted by JRoberts5483:
when the auburn line opened at minus 3, 85% was on auburn. reverse line movement has everyone scratching their head and either staying away or choosing MSU. auburn now at minus 1 and only 77% on them. now those who chose miss st only get one point whereas normal line movement should have them getting 6 or 7. so now vegas has gotten money off of auburn while giving the losing play less points to play with. auburn should win tonight by 10 plus
same thing happened last friday with the line AZ line went down, they covered...then the boise line went crazy...they still covered...better team wins tonight....AUBURN
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same thing happened last friday with the line AZ line went down, they covered...then the boise line went crazy...they still covered...better team wins tonight....AUBURN
49 - 24 last year in an Auburn rout. Better offense this year. Stud for a QB. State runs the same offensive attack as Auburn so they are not going to present anything new to Auburn that they haven't seen in practice. A lot of people are saying that the fact that this is Auburns SEC opener on the road in a hostile environment is going to put pressure on Cam Newton and rattle him, shut him down, blah, blah. I watched his stellar perormance, granted against ark state, but he looked like he was playing around with a bunch of tee-ballers out there just clowning all over them. He is not goin g to be affected by a "rowdy" crowd. At least not in a negative way. Best thing for state fans to do is maybe create an awkward silence. Thats the only thing I see that might get to him.
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49 - 24 last year in an Auburn rout. Better offense this year. Stud for a QB. State runs the same offensive attack as Auburn so they are not going to present anything new to Auburn that they haven't seen in practice. A lot of people are saying that the fact that this is Auburns SEC opener on the road in a hostile environment is going to put pressure on Cam Newton and rattle him, shut him down, blah, blah. I watched his stellar perormance, granted against ark state, but he looked like he was playing around with a bunch of tee-ballers out there just clowning all over them. He is not goin g to be affected by a "rowdy" crowd. At least not in a negative way. Best thing for state fans to do is maybe create an awkward silence. Thats the only thing I see that might get to him.
would have to agree that you can read too much into pre-game puzzling line moves which have no correlation with the final score...if the move is from sharp money, o.k...sit up and take notice. and at the very least seriouslt consider reducing or neutralizing your position if it looks funny...my theory is that the line moves notso much in respect to final game outcome but rather is heavily correlated with maximizing the amt bet...which I guess is betting 101...but then the heisenburg uncertainty principle doesnt really apply here that I can see..
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would have to agree that you can read too much into pre-game puzzling line moves which have no correlation with the final score...if the move is from sharp money, o.k...sit up and take notice. and at the very least seriouslt consider reducing or neutralizing your position if it looks funny...my theory is that the line moves notso much in respect to final game outcome but rather is heavily correlated with maximizing the amt bet...which I guess is betting 101...but then the heisenburg uncertainty principle doesnt really apply here that I can see..
49 - 24 last year in an Auburn rout. Better offense this year. Stud for a QB. State runs the same offensive attack as Auburn so they are not going to present anything new to Auburn that they haven't seen in practice. A lot of people are saying that the fact that this is Auburns SEC opener on the road in a hostile environment is going to put pressure on Cam Newton and rattle him, shut him down, blah, blah. I watched his stellar perormance, granted against ark state, but he looked like he was playing around with a bunch of tee-ballers out there just clowning all over them. He is not goin g to be affected by a "rowdy" crowd. At least not in a negative way. Best thing for state fans to do is maybe create an awkward silence. Thats the only thing I see that might get to him.
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49 - 24 last year in an Auburn rout. Better offense this year. Stud for a QB. State runs the same offensive attack as Auburn so they are not going to present anything new to Auburn that they haven't seen in practice. A lot of people are saying that the fact that this is Auburns SEC opener on the road in a hostile environment is going to put pressure on Cam Newton and rattle him, shut him down, blah, blah. I watched his stellar perormance, granted against ark state, but he looked like he was playing around with a bunch of tee-ballers out there just clowning all over them. He is not goin g to be affected by a "rowdy" crowd. At least not in a negative way. Best thing for state fans to do is maybe create an awkward silence. Thats the only thing I see that might get to him.
Initial line movement at Pinny pushed the number to -3
We were discussing where the line opened, but you are completely correct. But paying attention to line movements in College ball is going to make you go crazy - especially initial line movements where it doesnt take that much money to move a line.
Lines in college are a bit more dynamic. I find the people chasing line moves are usually losers.
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Quote Originally Posted by 2169:
Initial line movement at Pinny pushed the number to -3
We were discussing where the line opened, but you are completely correct. But paying attention to line movements in College ball is going to make you go crazy - especially initial line movements where it doesnt take that much money to move a line.
Lines in college are a bit more dynamic. I find the people chasing line moves are usually losers.
I believe it makes perfect logical sense to be able to sway a bettor off of the favorite all the while giving the underdog less points. Enlighten me as to how it is not. There is a greater percentage on state now at +1 than there was at +3.
That makes no sense...here is why....
There is this thing called the law of large #s - please look up that theory. That will help with the next paragraph....
The more bets you get, the more bets you are going to get on each side. When it opens - and barely anyone has access to that line - of course the percentages are going to be skewed one way. As more people bet, it opens up the possibility to evening out the %s.
The books arent in this to mind-fuck you. In football, and particularly in football, the books know exactly where they are going to get action. They arent afraid of getting slammed one way on a game in football. The handles arent that large compared to a table game and there are another 30 games coming up that week to even things out if they take a loss. They set the lines expecting certain action.
I dont think you can make an argument that this line was set expecting Miss St action. Rather the books knew exactly what type of action they were going to get here. Moving a line a half point is absolutely nothing.
GL with you and your crazy logic. I hope it works for you.
For someone to drive themselves this far trying to read a line, you deserve something to work in your favor.
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Quote Originally Posted by JRoberts5483:
I believe it makes perfect logical sense to be able to sway a bettor off of the favorite all the while giving the underdog less points. Enlighten me as to how it is not. There is a greater percentage on state now at +1 than there was at +3.
That makes no sense...here is why....
There is this thing called the law of large #s - please look up that theory. That will help with the next paragraph....
The more bets you get, the more bets you are going to get on each side. When it opens - and barely anyone has access to that line - of course the percentages are going to be skewed one way. As more people bet, it opens up the possibility to evening out the %s.
The books arent in this to mind-fuck you. In football, and particularly in football, the books know exactly where they are going to get action. They arent afraid of getting slammed one way on a game in football. The handles arent that large compared to a table game and there are another 30 games coming up that week to even things out if they take a loss. They set the lines expecting certain action.
I dont think you can make an argument that this line was set expecting Miss St action. Rather the books knew exactly what type of action they were going to get here. Moving a line a half point is absolutely nothing.
GL with you and your crazy logic. I hope it works for you.
For someone to drive themselves this far trying to read a line, you deserve something to work in your favor.
when the auburn line opened at minus 3, 85% was on auburn. reverse line movement has everyone scratching their head and either staying away or choosing MSU. auburn now at minus 1 and only 77% on them. now those who chose miss st only get one point whereas normal line movement should have them getting 6 or 7. so now vegas has gotten money off of auburn while giving the losing play less points to play with. auburn should win tonight by 10 plus
i agree vegas head fake. i do think it will be a closer game than you. Auburn by 3-7 pts!
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Quote Originally Posted by JRoberts5483:
when the auburn line opened at minus 3, 85% was on auburn. reverse line movement has everyone scratching their head and either staying away or choosing MSU. auburn now at minus 1 and only 77% on them. now those who chose miss st only get one point whereas normal line movement should have them getting 6 or 7. so now vegas has gotten money off of auburn while giving the losing play less points to play with. auburn should win tonight by 10 plus
i agree vegas head fake. i do think it will be a closer game than you. Auburn by 3-7 pts!
when the auburn line opened at minus 3, 85% was on auburn. reverse line movement has everyone scratching their head and either staying away or choosing MSU. auburn now at minus 1 and only 77% on them. now those who chose miss st only get one point whereas normal line movement should have them getting 6 or 7. so now vegas has gotten money off of auburn while giving the losing play less points to play with. auburn should win tonight by 10 plus
Just curious where are you getting these percentages????
Keep in mind these may not truly reflect the actual money on each side from what I understand that info is kept pretty tight
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Quote Originally Posted by JRoberts5483:
when the auburn line opened at minus 3, 85% was on auburn. reverse line movement has everyone scratching their head and either staying away or choosing MSU. auburn now at minus 1 and only 77% on them. now those who chose miss st only get one point whereas normal line movement should have them getting 6 or 7. so now vegas has gotten money off of auburn while giving the losing play less points to play with. auburn should win tonight by 10 plus
Just curious where are you getting these percentages????
Keep in mind these may not truly reflect the actual money on each side from what I understand that info is kept pretty tight
I really hope you guys are not serious as to put so much belief in a Vegas head fake. Do you really use that as part of your capping? Mabybe I am just ignorant but I really think even if that is true, I don't ever want to be putting much belief in it because when things start turning south ( and they will), you will drive yourself nuts trying to read into all kinds of things that you have no control over.
Keep it simple and you won't have as much emotional clutter when capping. Good bankroll management is key and if you start believing that their are ghosts in the closet then you and your money will soon be distant.
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I really hope you guys are not serious as to put so much belief in a Vegas head fake. Do you really use that as part of your capping? Mabybe I am just ignorant but I really think even if that is true, I don't ever want to be putting much belief in it because when things start turning south ( and they will), you will drive yourself nuts trying to read into all kinds of things that you have no control over.
Keep it simple and you won't have as much emotional clutter when capping. Good bankroll management is key and if you start believing that their are ghosts in the closet then you and your money will soon be distant.
Just curious where are you getting these percentages????
Keep in mind these may not truly reflect the actual money on each side from what I understand that info is kept pretty tight
ive been saying this for years...i never understand the relavance or validity of any site that claims to post true numbers in regards to betting %'s....books could care less about %'s and that being said, they still have no reason whatsoever to make them public
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Quote Originally Posted by JJ_Hiawatha:
Just curious where are you getting these percentages????
Keep in mind these may not truly reflect the actual money on each side from what I understand that info is kept pretty tight
ive been saying this for years...i never understand the relavance or validity of any site that claims to post true numbers in regards to betting %'s....books could care less about %'s and that being said, they still have no reason whatsoever to make them public
what this reminds me off (and I agree with sizzle here) is a system that we used to use when I was a commodity broker/trader called time based trading where the essential idea is that the price for whatever will go to the point where the volume maximizes...
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what this reminds me off (and I agree with sizzle here) is a system that we used to use when I was a commodity broker/trader called time based trading where the essential idea is that the price for whatever will go to the point where the volume maximizes...
what this reminds me off (and I agree with sizzle here) is a system that we used to use when I was a commodity broker/trader called time based trading where the essential idea is that the price for whatever will go to the point where the volume maximizes...
Ok I'm not a total idiot, but could you explain that a little more..
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Quote Originally Posted by sandking:
what this reminds me off (and I agree with sizzle here) is a system that we used to use when I was a commodity broker/trader called time based trading where the essential idea is that the price for whatever will go to the point where the volume maximizes...
Ok I'm not a total idiot, but could you explain that a little more..
I appreciate the insight guys. Thanks for all the valuable line information. To answer your question, the percentages I got are from Vegasinsider. I realize that they are not representative of the entire betting population, but only a small sample. But it is a somewhat close estimate of side action, not necessarily money percent.
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I appreciate the insight guys. Thanks for all the valuable line information. To answer your question, the percentages I got are from Vegasinsider. I realize that they are not representative of the entire betting population, but only a small sample. But it is a somewhat close estimate of side action, not necessarily money percent.
And I usually dont focus too much on line movement when capping, but I just still do not understand this line. I was thinking that it would open up around -7 or -8 for Auburn. I just dont get it...
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And I usually dont focus too much on line movement when capping, but I just still do not understand this line. I was thinking that it would open up around -7 or -8 for Auburn. I just dont get it...
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My thoughts exactly!!! PG GL BUDDY! 
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