College Football GOY -- USC/Oregon

I've been licking my chops for this one a long time.  Going into the season, I was riding high on Oregon.  They delivered a huge blow to me in week one at Boise.  As we've learned though, Boise is always a very tough place to play.  Since week one (well week two), they have looked like the team I expected.

USC is young and simply not as good as people seem to think.  I firmly believe that Oregon is the better team and would take them large at any number up to -3.  The line opened at +4 and quickly shifted to +3.  I plan on hopping on this ASAP, as I expect to see it move closer to pick before kick. 

Good luck to all and I'd love to hear other opinions.

GOY Oregon (+3) vs. USC

I think you have something there JR.... It might wind up being dog of the week

GL

agree...

it should be a happy halloween

JR-

It doesn't surprise me that the line opened at this number, based on the backdoor scoring USC has allowed in it's last couple games, and the current winning streak Oregon is on.

There's no doubt that the Ducks have looked impressive since that week 1 letdown, but this is USC's game of the year.  A win here gives them a chance at a backdoor entry into the title game.  Pete Carroll always has his boys ready in big game situations like this, so I really expect them to hit on all cylinders going into Saturday night's game.  Just my take on the game, and the situation both teams are in.  I think it's hard to argue that Oregon is the better team, but as we all know, you don't have to necessarily be the best to win one matchup, especially with a home field advantage.

GL

jkochvar - Definitely hear you and Pete Carroll does get his team up for games like this.  They also pounded Cal on the road, so it's not like they are a bad road team.

This is a NCAA Championship type game for Oregon though.  Winner has a major edge in winning the Pac 10 and going to the Rose Bowl. I expect a great game and don't sense a blowout either way.  My evaluation has Oregon winning by 3-7 points, so I have to get excited to get 3!

Good luck.

I rarely post comments but as a Duck homer I've watched them close up all season. Two very good teams go head to head in the game of the week.

IMO the USC -3 line is playing to public expectations while oddsmakers know the Ducks are at least equal to or better than SC. The Trojans have been at the top of the PAC 10 for so long that the perception is that they can't be dethroned. Of course they can be beat but it won't be easy.  

Week before last Oregon had a bye and got rested and healed. On Saturday they went to Washington and crushed the Huskies -- a game many analyst said would expose Oregon's  weaknesses because Jake Locker would surely  pick them apart. This week no one is talkng about how great Locker is.

Oregon has a speedy defense that creates turnovers and a relentless, no-huddle offense that wears opponents down. They may also have the better coach in Chip Kelly. And last but not least the Ducks will be playing at home on Halloween night in front of some of the loudest fans in CFB. No matter who wins this will  be one hell of a game.

My Early Line Games Already Wagered On...

I'm on Oregon this week. I havent truly believed USC was going to lose headed into a game until this coming one against Oregon. I was high on the Ducks coming into the season. I always felt it would be USC's biggest test.

Oregon's playing great ball. The test for me was how they were going to handle UW this past weekend. I expected a "look ahead" type of game, but that was far from the truth. The best thing to happen to Oregon was their loss to Boise. They changes as a team from there on out. They play relaxed and loose.

I wont go as far as to say they have more talent than USC (because they dont), but they are just playing better football right now. I hated the way USC played against the Beavers. Again, they slept walked through the game. And I see a major hole in the linebacker group. Its a one man show there. Oregon could expose.

This could be the first time USC loses by double digits since ND beat them in 2000 by 11. I truly feel that. Autzen is never a fun place to play.

And I'm superstitious. I'm 0-3 in my last 3 games where I had to tape USC's games (loss this year vs UW, loss last year vs Beavers, loss the year before vs. Stanford). That could be why I'm so high on the Ducks!!

But in all seriousness, I see a 27-23 Oregon victory. This game will be a sloppy mess, IMO.

USC always shows up in big games, but this team is different. ND isnt a big game, sorry. They suck nuts.

Something is missing from this team. They dont have that one guy they can fall back on when things get tough.

I dont know, i dont like USC in this spot. I think they can win of course, but I just dont like them this weekend. I will feel more fortunate coming out of their win a W than I did against the Buckeyes. I've always repsected the hell out of the Ducks. There's just nothing I can hate about them. Love the teams, uniforms, and most important, the cheerleaders. Nobody hangs with the Ducks cheerleaders.

either team can win and you may be correct with Oregon, but GOY against USC as only a 3 point favorite?

why not oregon St last week catching over 3 touchdowns for the game of the year, now your basically betting Oregon beats them straight up, not saying it can't happen or won't happen but I'm not sure I can understand it being GOY material to bet against USC with that type of line

best of luck

+1  In no way should +3 against USC be a GOY.  Sure, USC might not cover, but they'll never lose by double digits.  Oregon has no passing game. Their D is good, but SC's offense is clicking right now.   Barkley has put up 30+ points against reasonable, albeit not great, defenses.  ND was a BIG game. That was ND's GOTY and SC crushed them for 3+ quarters.

Carroll knows how  to prepare this team in hostile environments.Especially in big game situations.  Washington v USC could've been a GOY.  Oregon State of course.

Oregon +3? Just not enough of a margin of error. USC could easily win and most people wouldn't be surprised.