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How ofter does the public lose?

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
Hey guys, I do not post very often on here, but have read many posts.  The main guys on here always say Public is Team A, so I am betting Team B.  So I was just wondering how ofter the Public is wrong and why not just bet against the Public all the time if they are generally wrong.
 
Just asking a dumb question, is there a smart answer?
 
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Posted: #2
Those guys talking about the public are concentrating on something pretty immaterial when it comes to betting. I have been on these forums since the 90's and there is way too much put into who is on who. Betting is all about situations , matchups, and grabbing the best number when it is available. Do your own work and let all these people continually talk about who the public is on.
 
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Posted: #3
They lose about 67% of the time.  It's why the gambling industry exits.
 
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Posted: #4
It comes down to Vegas putting the spread where they get action on one side when they have a firm belief that the other side is the better play.  They know much more about teams and have inside info in order to set these lines to get it where they want.  It is a fallacy that they want 50-50 action on all games and all they want is vig.  They want the light side to come in and make real coin.

Of course this is not foolproof and they can't predict the future but over the long haul, they are going to be right more than wrong and their balance sheets will be bigger than just their vig.

When you see the public on a team at a 70-30 split and the line does not move at all, you can assume they are perfectly happy with the scenario and expect to make a windfall.

I may be a conspiracy theory guy but that is how I approach it all.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #5
fade the public and you win big

BELIEVE IT !!
 
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Posted: #6
bullshit. its all a 50-50 game. especially in football. the public games lose probably a little over 50% (like 53%) in football. the public loses way more in baseball and hoops.
 
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Posted: #7
Thanks guys... So when the Juice moves to say from -110 to -120, but the line does not move means Vegas is good with the Line number, but will get more vig on the L.
 
Interesting. Thanks guys
 
Take any other tips on Homework items and such. 
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by johnobvious:

It comes down to Vegas putting the spread where they get action on one side when they have a firm belief that the other side is the better play.  They know much more about teams and have inside info in order to set these lines to get it where they want.  It is a fallacy that they want 50-50 action on all games and all they want is vig.  They want the light side to come in and make real coin.

Of course this is not foolproof and they can't predict the future but over the long haul, they are going to be right more than wrong and their balance sheets will be bigger than just their vig.

When you see the public on a team at a 70-30 split and the line does not move at all, you can assume they are perfectly happy with the scenario and expect to make a windfall.

I may be a conspiracy theory guy but that is how I approach it all.

I agree 100% with this comment. Paying attention to the lines and where the line is swaying bettors is unbeleivable at times when you see the results.

 

 

 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by Vegasville:

I agree 100% with this comment. Paying attention to the lines and where the line is swaying bettors is unbeleivable at times when you see the results.

So when the line is moving one way that means the public is all over the other side and vegas or the books are trying to even out the betting.

Of course there are going to be some games when the public is right. 

I classify myself still a public rookie better specially when it comes to football.  Hockey, I am pretty good at.  Baseball I can also hold my own.

 

 
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Posted: #10
I suggest laying off a few games and just watch the lines and movement. Some interesting angles. Also I believe that the books set up easy square lines to let public bets win. That way they keep people betting. Like how slots will pay out to keep people interested. In my opinion of what I've seen, I think the square lines that hit are the ones that are so obviously square. Example take the Colts/Seahawks match-up last week. Colts -10 with the Seahawks starting their backup QB was just so off that it was too obvious.
 
Just my opinion but a very interesting topic of discussion.
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by Vegasville:

I suggest laying off a few games and just watch the lines and movement. Some interesting angles. Also I believe that the books set up easy square lines to let public bets win. That way they keep people betting. Like how slots will pay out to keep people interested. In my opinion of what I've seen, I think the square lines that hit are the ones that are so obviously square. Example take the Colts/Seahawks match-up last week. Colts -10 with the Seahawks starting their backup QB was just so off that it was too obvious.
 
Just my opinion but a very interesting topic of discussion.

Vegas, Square Line, that is the first time I am hearing of that term.  You got an example for this upcoming week, just so I can test your theroy?

 
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Posted: #12
Have you ever been to Vegas and seen those pretty lights?

Ever wonder why they will give you FREE rooms, FREE flights and all the trimmings????

Cause in the end, the house usually wins, same thing with major public favorites (most of the time)

I wouldn't suggest tailing a capper and I wouldnt suggest fading the public all the time.

I would suggest you cap the game and make a line before looking at the line and go from there.

When you start letting voices in your head you start to second guess yourself


 
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Posted: #13
very often
 
Prospect
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by Maydaymalone:

Have you ever been to Vegas and seen those pretty lights?

Ever wonder why they will give you FREE rooms, FREE flights and all the trimmings????

Cause in the end, the house usually wins, same thing with major public favorites (most of the time)

I wouldn't suggest tailing a capper and I wouldnt suggest fading the public all the time.

I would suggest you cap the game and make a line before looking at the line and go from there.

When you start letting voices in your head you start to second guess yourself


And that is what I am trying to learn.  How to do the Capping myself instead of coming on here and reading everyone thoughts.

How do you cap a game so you come up with a number?  Then do you base the number against the book and if the book is giving you more points then you thought, you go with the points or if the book is giving you less then you thought you go with the Dog.

As said earlier I know hockey, but football is a different animal cause of the point spreads.

Any tips for a new football capper much appreciated. 

This is turning into a good thread.  Be more then happy to have a private discussion with you instead of for all thew world to see.

 
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Posted: #15
It kind of reminds me of the little boy and the little girl looking at each and asking "are you the opposite sex or am I?"
 
IF you bet opposite the public; then the public (YOU) just shifted their play to other team
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #16
I think that a lot of people in this forum are in here more for the action than anything else. NO MATTER what they say. I am guilty of that sometimes too.
 
Vegasville has an excellent point; just study the whole card each week; find that one or maybe two games that fit. Slam those and fill your account.
 
I personally do not have that much discipline, but I use those plays to cover some other bad plays that I wind up with each week. If I did this for a living I would have to develop a lot more discipline than I currently have. I am retired and gambling has been a long time hobby for me since 1967. I do pull money out of my accounts on a fairly consistent basis though.
 
It is a mistake to think that the public is always wrong, that is just not true. Favorites can actually cover and pay off.   You can lose your money just as fast playing "sharp (as defined in this forum) plays" and dogs as you can by playing all favorites. There is no substitute for just good matchup analysis and situational awareness.
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by AtlFader:

It kind of reminds me of the little boy and the little girl looking at each and asking "are you the opposite sex or am I?"
 
IF you bet opposite the public; then the public (YOU) just shifted their play to other team
 
 
 
 
Opening lines and line movement should factor in on an against the public play. Most bettors just cant wait to get there bet in and games get alot of action early when the lines come out. If you are going to go opposite the public, it's good to wait till at least gameday to make you're decision.
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by hockey20:

Vegas, Square Line, that is the first time I am hearing of that term.  You got an example for this upcoming week, just so I can test your theroy?

Looking at the board right now the most obvious pick is Minnesota Vikings -10 @ St. Louis Rams. Vikings being only 10 point favorites against the happless Rams is a obvious public bet. This could be the gimme pick(squarepick that will hit) this week with the books getting us elsewhere.
 
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Posted: #19
Last week 9ers -9.5 vs same RAMS was like stealing 35-0
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by AtlFader:

Last week 9ers -9.5 vs same RAMS was like stealing 35-0
Yeah Rams are pretty bad and probably wouldnt get played if they were three TD Dogs.
 
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Posted: #21
Good thread...
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by bluesplayer:

Good thread...

Thank buddy.  Just trying to get my hands around some people thought process on things.  Also figured someone else could benefit from this discussion

 
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Posted: #23

Quote Originally Posted by Vegasville:

Looking at the board right now the most obvious pick is Minnesota Vikings -10 @ St. Louis Rams. Vikings being only 10 point favorites against the happless Rams is a obvious public bet. This could be the gimme pick(squarepick that will hit) this week with the books getting us elsewhere.

I agree the Rams are worthless team that I think Alabama could beat right now.  With that being said, Is Indy another Gimmie Pick being they are about -3.5 or -4 on the covers board?  Also another pick I would say would be the Philly over TB if and that is only if the line was below 14.  Thoughts?

 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by hockey20:

I agree the Rams are worthless team that I think Alabama could beat right now.  With that being said, Is Indy another Gimmie Pick being they are about -3.5 or -4 on the covers board?  Also another pick I would say would be the Philly over TB if and that is only if the line was below 14.  Thoughts?

Covers +60% consensus picks 3-3 so far today. Minnesota, NewYork G-Men, Philly cover. Carolina, Buffalo, Pittsburgh no cover. Also the public Dawg on the early games(Cincinnati) won and its my opinion that a Dawg thats getting 50% play is like a Favorite getting 60% play. The Public bets are hitting early. Interesting to see what happens this afternoon and this evening.

I got the Titans ML tonight. If you beleive in fading the public than this is the play to make tonight. Very little love for a team that went 13-3 last year, beating the Colts on Monday Night.

 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by Maydaymalone:

Have you ever been to Vegas and seen those pretty lights?

Ever wonder why they will give you FREE rooms, FREE flights and all the trimmings????

Cause in the end, the house usually wins, same thing with major public favorites (most of the time)

I wouldn't suggest tailing a capper and I wouldnt suggest fading the public all the time.

I would suggest you cap the game and make a line before looking at the line and go from there.

When you start letting voices in your head you start to second guess yourself




That is exactly how I play it. I like a bet even more, if I've capped a game/player to take side A and the public seems to favor side B.
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