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1 Unit - Wisconsin(-2) @ Minnesota - Minny has played close games against
some really average teams, with the exception of a 14 point loss to Cal
and an FCS blowout. Wisconsin hasn't been a world beater either, but
their offense is productive. They should be able to take advantage of
Minnesota's bottom 15 defense.
10 Units - Alabama(-16) @ Kentucky - Alabama is the best team in the country right now, Kentucky is in the bottom 1/3 of the SEC in EVERY major category. Kentucky will have problems holding Alabama under 300 yards rushing(Allowed UF 362, UL 130+). There is a risk of a backdoor cover, but it should be minimal.
UK may not score.
2 Units - Under51 OU @ Miami(Fl.) - I smell a 19-13 type of game here... too many injuries and inconsistency. Miami flat out can't run the ball(#99) vs. OU's TOP RANKED rushing defense will result in a lot of 4 and outs for Miami... and with Bradford dinged up, expect Oklahoma to grind it out and eat clock up(50+ rushes). I'm not sure how they did it, but the raw stats say Miami is a bad team... but I think there is enough perception of them as dangerous to keep OU conservative.
1 Unit - Under48 Ohio @ BGSU - Bowling Green can pass, Ohio can defend it... That's about the only positive either team has.
1 Unit - Iowa State(-2.5) vs. Kansas State - KSU is flat out awful, Iowa State looks like they could sneak into a bowl this season. Alexander Robinson is averaging well over 5YPC, and UCLA ran all over KSU.
1 Unit - Washington State(+35) @ Oregon - Seriously? 35 points? Oregon is overvalued in a HUGE way after the California game where everything went right for them and everything went wrong for Cal. Washington State hasn't made the strides UW has, but its certainly improved enough to hold the 88th ranked offense close enough to prevent a 35+ point loss. Very likely backdoor cover here.
3 Units - Over66.5 Arkansas@Texas A&M - This reminds me of a Hal Mumme intrasquad scrimmage at Kentucky. I hate taking an over like this, but nothing indicates to me that either team can slow down the other. I would also consider taking Texas A&M as I think their offense is a bit better.
Insane throwing my money away bet
½ Unit - Arkansas State SU(-900) @ Iowa - Quality rushing team in ASU, Iowa coming off a huge win... that has everyone forgetting about the Northern Iowa near loss. Iowa's QB loves to throw into coverage resulting in a lot of blowups and a 1/1 INT/TD ratio.
Not the most likely upset, but food for thought.
10 Units - Alabama(-16) @ Kentucky - Alabama is the best team in the country right now, Kentucky is in the bottom 1/3 of the SEC in EVERY major category. Kentucky will have problems holding Alabama under 300 yards rushing(Allowed UF 362, UL 130+). There is a risk of a backdoor cover, but it should be minimal.
UK may not score.
2 Units - Under51 OU @ Miami(Fl.) - I smell a 19-13 type of game here... too many injuries and inconsistency. Miami flat out can't run the ball(#99) vs. OU's TOP RANKED rushing defense will result in a lot of 4 and outs for Miami... and with Bradford dinged up, expect Oklahoma to grind it out and eat clock up(50+ rushes). I'm not sure how they did it, but the raw stats say Miami is a bad team... but I think there is enough perception of them as dangerous to keep OU conservative.
1 Unit - Under48 Ohio @ BGSU - Bowling Green can pass, Ohio can defend it... That's about the only positive either team has.
1 Unit - Iowa State(-2.5) vs. Kansas State - KSU is flat out awful, Iowa State looks like they could sneak into a bowl this season. Alexander Robinson is averaging well over 5YPC, and UCLA ran all over KSU.
1 Unit - Washington State(+35) @ Oregon - Seriously? 35 points? Oregon is overvalued in a HUGE way after the California game where everything went right for them and everything went wrong for Cal. Washington State hasn't made the strides UW has, but its certainly improved enough to hold the 88th ranked offense close enough to prevent a 35+ point loss. Very likely backdoor cover here.
3 Units - Over66.5 Arkansas@Texas A&M - This reminds me of a Hal Mumme intrasquad scrimmage at Kentucky. I hate taking an over like this, but nothing indicates to me that either team can slow down the other. I would also consider taking Texas A&M as I think their offense is a bit better.
Insane throwing my money away bet
½ Unit - Arkansas State SU(-900) @ Iowa - Quality rushing team in ASU, Iowa coming off a huge win... that has everyone forgetting about the Northern Iowa near loss. Iowa's QB loves to throw into coverage resulting in a lot of blowups and a 1/1 INT/TD ratio.
Not the most likely upset, but food for thought.
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