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Author: [College Football] Topic: NCAA MARKETWATCH 9/30 - 10/03
Gordon Gekko
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Gordon Gekko
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#1
Posted: 9/30/2009 10:52:40 AM
Hello Boyz went 6-1  with the Marketwatch posted last Saturday running it to an astounding 14-3  posted on the year.  My sides went 3-3 for a disappointing week running record to 6-8 on the year.  Hopefully we will continue the same mojo as we look at Week 5's games. 
 
Games I'm looking at: 
 
I've played BC + 5.5 when it came out.  Weather will be a factor.
Virginia +13.5
Kentucky +17
Maryland +13.5
Oklahoma -7
Ball St +6
Marshall +2.5
Vanderbilt +9
California +5.5
Stanford -5
Bowling Green  -2.5
 
TOTALS  
 
OVER BG 45
OVER Buffalo 55.5
OVER Miami 49
OVER LSU  52.5
UNDER Cinc  56
OVER Temple 47
UNDER ND 55.5
UNDER N.ILLinois 52
OVER KSTATe 47
OVER Air Force
UNDER Wyoming 52
OVER Rice 62
OVER SDState 45
 
GOING TO narrow down and see how the market responds and check weather along with major injuries. 
 
More to follow.
GEKKO
 
 
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#2
Posted: 9/30/2009 11:22:47 AM
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#3
Posted: 9/30/2009 11:33:25 AM
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#4
Posted: 9/30/2009 11:56:08 AM
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#5
Posted: 9/30/2009 12:43:01 PM
with you on california, vandy and virginia
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#6
Posted: 9/30/2009 3:19:52 PM
UK, OU, VanderWilt 
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#7
Posted: 9/30/2009 3:24:23 PM
One more week like that and Stockwatch will be all over you
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target_9
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#8
Posted: 9/30/2009 4:03:07 PM
GL this week!!!
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Gordon Gekko
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#9
Posted: 10/1/2009 12:17:09 PM

Central Michigan @ Buffalo   

NCAA current total: 55

Percentage: 53% on the over

Game Capped by GEKKO:  63

Buffalo likes to air it out and score.  They rank 22nd in passing offense in the nation and are ranked 46th in passing defense.  Central Michigan is ranked 64th in passing defense.  If both QB’s get it going early look for a shootout.  34-30 game

 

Both teams have played a tough schedule so far while Central Michigan has put up over 27 per game the last 3 including 48 pts the last two.  Buffalo hasn't gotten it going but Temple, UCF, and Pittsburgh were last three opponents.  Buffalo is a great team for overs and the market still hasn't approached the number leaving 7 pts plus on the table.

 

The line has dropped in most cases even with a short percentage on the over.  Last years total was 52 and Central Michigan seems to have it going this year.  Look for the over in this one.


Play:  OVER 55

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#10
Posted: 10/1/2009 12:19:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AtlFader:

One more week like that and Stockwatch will be all over you

LMAO! 

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#11
Posted: 10/1/2009 12:22:02 PM
best of luck Gordon, as you know I am all over Kentucky, and LOVE Boston College this weekend. 
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Gordon Gekko
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#12
Posted: 10/1/2009 12:22:49 PM
Temple @ Eastern Michigan  
 
NCAA current total:  47
Game Capped by Gekko:  55
Percentage:  NA
 
The line has stayed stable since opening.  Temple is a team that draws attention to unders, however they've totalled over 47 (2 out of 3 games) and last years game ECLIPSED 100!  Do I expect things to click like that, absolutely not, however, Eastern Michigan games have hit over 47 66% of the time this year.  After facing a tougher schedule and defenses these teams can't wait to see open space.
 
PLAY:  OVER 47
 
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#13
Posted: 10/1/2009 12:24:50 PM

Coach T,

Like BC, should be wet and rainy.  Defense seems solid this year.  FG or less IMO!  Lets get it..

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Gordon Gekko
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#14
Posted: 10/1/2009 12:33:29 PM
Washington @ Notre Dame  
 
NCAA Current Total:  55.5
Percentage on game:  78 % on Over
Game Capped by Gekko: 47
 
I'm disagreeing with the market so far and some of the heavy hitters are with me on this.  The line has dropped to 54.5 in some places.  The oddsmakers are opening this line to high in my opinion.  You have a banged up Claussen and lost your go to receiver and the Irish most likely will be better on defense.  Last year their was a huge drop off in production when teams could focus just on Tate and I think we will see it again.  Throw in the fact that Washington doesn;t want a shoot out rather than a grind em USC type of game and you'll have an under.  ND eclipsed this total with all stars healthy and against the MICHIGAN STATE of OVERS!  The only team Washington went over this total was a weak Idaho team. 
 
I'm disagreeing with the market so far and believe the public perception of the Fighting Irish Offense outweighs the true numeric number to be reached. 
 
Play:  UNDER 55.5
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#15
Posted: 10/1/2009 12:42:21 PM
Great record - look forward to seeing your plays. 
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Gordon Gekko
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#16
Posted: 10/1/2009 12:45:01 PM
Kansas St @ Iowa St   
 
NCAA total:  47
Percentage on the game:  80% on the over
Game Capped:  59
 
BIG 12 Football.  That should be enough for all of you to like the play on this one.  I think the market understands that both teams don't possess to strong of defenses but match up well for some scoring. Granted KStates 49 against a weak opponent may show some grasp of offense, the key here is Iowa St putting up 31, 34, and 34.  We now know Iowa is legit and especially on defense.  K State isn't special anywhere ranking high on defense, but quality of competition hasn't been much.  I look for a high scoring game like last year 38-30 but a little less.  I really believe that the total is off by 7-10 pts especially for a Big 12 opener.
 
I agree with the market pushing this over up a point and 1/2 in some places.  Look for a closing price at 50.  Anything below that is worth some value.
 
PLAY:  OVER 47
 
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#17
Posted: 10/1/2009 1:03:16 PM
Oklahoma @ Miami-FLA    
 
NCAA Total:  49
Percentage on the game:  82% on the Over
Game Capped by Gekko:  57
 
The line hasn't moved too much with the high percentage as bettors may be looking into Bradfords's shoulder issues as a way to not wager on the game.  Pure and simple Oklahoma will score and are ranked 8th in scoring offense at 40.67 per game while Miami averages over 20 per game.  Oklahoma run defense #1 in nation, Miami's run offense 93rd. Miami will not be able to run the ball, passing will cause TO's easy scores and if they can hit some themselves, the over will cash. Oklahoma can score on defense as well (#1 in Nation at 4.67).  Miami will give up points almost 35 per game, while they rank 23rd in passing offense.  This game will be full of run n shoot and lighting the score board up.  Can Miami stop anyone>>>>> NO!  With Coach Whipple joining the staff, he looks to get the receivers involved early. 
 
I agree with the market for whomever is the quarterback at Oklahoma.  Scoring should be early and often.
 
PLAY:  OVER 49
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#18
Posted: 10/1/2009 2:24:55 PM
GG, what are your thoughts on USC/Cal total?
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Gordon Gekko
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#19
Posted: 10/1/2009 2:39:09 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by MDnightFlight] GG, what are your thoughts on USC/Cal total?

Midnight,

This is an interesting game as California comes off a blow out road loss in which they were embarrassed and USC a convincing dominating win vs Washington St.  Cal's offense is based upon their running attack and this doesn't compliment well vs USC defense (USC # 5 in nation) and (California Running attack #24th).  California has circled this game since early last year and they will obviously be up for the game.  I see this game efficiently set at mid to high 40's with a 4-6 pt favorite on the road.  Defense wins games but how good is USC's offense?  I'll take the home points at 5+ if I was forced to play.  Either way I think the oddsmakers have done a good job creating valid lines and the public has eaten up the +6 and 5.5 early.  I took a play early at 5.5.

GEKKO

 

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#20
Posted: 10/1/2009 2:49:48 PM
 gl
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#21
Posted: 10/1/2009 2:59:04 PM
Good stuff. So from your thoughts I am getting that you think this total is set very well and there is not much of an advantage to betting either side. Is this correct?
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#22
Posted: 10/1/2009 3:23:58 PM
nice job, Gekko
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Gordon Gekko
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#23
Posted: 10/1/2009 5:46:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MDnightFlight:

Good stuff. So from your thoughts I am getting that you think this total is set very well and there is not much of an advantage to betting either side. Is this correct?

Yes this is correct.  If I was to make a wager it would be on the Under and Cal...

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#24
Posted: 10/1/2009 5:49:53 PM
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Gordon Gekko
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#25
Posted: 10/1/2009 6:24:01 PM
Tulsa @ Rice         
 
NCAA Total:  62
Game Percentage:  NA
Game Capped:  70
 
This is a game that smells like offense.  It's offensive to everybody but they still have to play it.  Tulsa exploded last week to score 5 TD's out of first 6 possessions in a rout, while Rice gave up 484 yards of offense to Vanderbilt.  Tulsa scored 63 last year and total combined was 91.  Rice hasn't shown the capability of playing defense ranking 115th in nation and 116th in pass defense.  Theyv'e managed 18.75 pts per game while allowing 44 pts per game putting it right on the number.  Lets take last years number and hope for a shootout. 
 
Play:  OVER 62
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