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Spartan's Week 4 Plays (27-13 YTD Posted)

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
Alright all, it's been a rewarding season so far, lets hope it gets even better!

I'm going to make 10 plays, and have posted 11 games.  I'd love your opinion as far as which one to drop.   Also, below the picks is week-by-week record and a link for verification of last weeks post.

Week 4 Picks

ND -7 (purdue) (buy pt)
Missouri -7 (nevada) (buy half pt)
Kansas -14 (smu)
Tennessee -21 (ohio)
Boise State -16.5 (toledo)
BYU -14.5 (colorado state)
OSU -14 (illinois)
Nebraska -28 (UL Lafayette)
TAMU -14 (UAB) (buy pt)
GT -2.5 (unc)
Penn State -10 (iowa)



Season Results

Week 1: 10-5
Week 2: 9-6
Week 3: 8-2

Week 3 Wins: Boise St, North Carolina, UCLA, Ohio State, Indiana, Hawaii, Georgia, Cincinnati

Week 3 Losses: Purdue, Maryland

Link to Pre-Week 3 Post:
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=100528166 
 
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Posted: #2
hey man boise plays bowling green...and i liked boise initially but BG has the nations leading receiver,,,freddy barnes has like 50 catches thru 3 games...no one can stop him...i like the falcons to at least keep it close at home...they loose but it will be within 14. GL THO
 
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Posted: #3
I appreciate the clarification... I have it written down correctly too and somehow mixed it up.

The insight into BG's passing game is important to be sure, but I think if you look at what happened in Fresno, Boise can still play the shootout.  An equally important question is whether Bowling Green's defense can stop Boise's offense.  To me that seems improbable. 

Nonetheless, thanks much for your input. 
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by SpartanPhenom:

Alright all, it's been a rewarding season so far, lets hope it gets even better!

I'm going to make 10 plays, and have posted 11 games.  I'd love your opinion as far as which one to drop.   Also, below the picks is week-by-week record and a link for verification of last weeks post.

Week 4 Picks

ND -7 (purdue) (buy pt)
Missouri -7 (nevada) (buy half pt)
Kansas -14 (smu)
Tennessee -21 (ohio)
Boise State -16.5 (toledo)
BYU -14.5 (colorado state)
OSU -14 (illinois)
Nebraska -28 (UL Lafayette)
TAMU -14 (UAB) (buy pt)
GT -2.5 (unc)
Penn State -10 (iowa)



Season Results

Week 1: 10-5
Week 2: 9-6
Week 3: 8-2

Week 3 Wins: Boise St, North Carolina, UCLA, Ohio State, Indiana, Hawaii, Georgia, Cincinnati

Week 3 Losses: Purdue, Maryland

Link to Pre-Week 3 Post:
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=100528166 
Iowa can win this game and PSU has not plated anyone.
 
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Posted: #5
I'm afraid of that.  If I had to choose right now, it's between dropping Penn State, Kansas, or Nebraska. 
 
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Posted: #6
Alright, I have it narrowed down a bit, but am still looking for some input.  Which of the following is the Worst? Best?

Nebraska
Ohio State
Penn State
Texas A&M
Georgia Tech
Kansas
 
Prospect
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Posted: #7
I do not like the Nebraska bet.  I'm actually thinking pretty strongly of taking ULL.

UL Lafayette (+27) @ Nebraska: This looks like a letdown spot for the Huskers.  They are coming off a devastating loss to Virginia Tech and will be looking ahead to Missouri—a game that could end up deciding the Big 12 North.  I see them coming out flat and potentially taking it easy in the fourth quarter.  This line opened up at 26.5 and has moved to 27 on some sites so I might be better off taking this one later in the week.  LSU beat ULL by 28.
 
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Posted: #8
Penn STate with REVENGE wins by 2 tds
 
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Posted: #9
Maybe drop ND.   Purdue lost last week because they were looking ahead to this game.  ND just cant put anyone away.....Gave away MICHIGAN and got lucky at the end of the state game.  Plus buying the 1 point cost you juice
 
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Posted: #10
I agree with jamn, I picked up UL Lafeyette as soon as I saw the line and will continue to hit it as the public pushes this one upwards...keep in mine nebraska is 3-0 ats this year and Lafeyette opened at only 18% of the public on covers playing them....to me, this equals major letdown for Nebraska and a line that smells like the jersey shore.  I have been wrong over 50% of my life though  LOL
 
BOL, keep murdering the books!
 
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Posted: #11
great season thus far, wish it were mine, I think teams have figured out the Georgia Tech offense or so it appears that way, but then again the UNC offense tends to struggle on the road, that game is a coin flip in my opinion, best of luck
.
 
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Posted: #12
I would drop PSU, they have not played anyone this year..
 
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Posted: #13
Thanks for all of the insightful comments all!

Jman and LBC, officially, I have agreed with you.  I'm going to pull the trigger on all of the other games, but leave this one off.  What I thought about to give it perspective was they lost by 28 to LSU.  Is Nebraska as good as LSU, I think not, I think LSU is far underrated this year and think that will become apparent after this week vs their SEC opponent. 

mvp, I certainly see what you are saying.  Notre Dame had a major reason to play the last two weeks, and it is tougher to get excited about a non-rival, and school without any substantial streak against you.  My gut still leans ND, but the logic is starting to say back off. 

OSU: PSU hasn't played anybody and Iowa has become motivated at least for a couple of games.  This one will be very interesting to see.  Just like with ND, the gut is telling me that the "better" team comes out and puts up the points. 

Either way, BOL to you all this week. 

I plan on combining these into 2 5-team round robin parlays by 2's and 3's (nebraska being the game left out). 

Perhaps a side play on Ole Miss as well.  What are your reads on the Ole Miss - SC game?
 
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Posted: #14
I would drop Ohio State as Illinois usually plays them very tuff. I think the line goes up to say 15 and grab it
 
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Posted: #15
Spartan,
 
Congrats on your early success. You are a rarity as most of us have taken a few early punches.
 
Like most of your games.  For what its worth I'd look at dropping the ND game.  Purdue's QB is a crafty, slithering bastard.  He'll find a way to  you.  Secondly, report out today from Weiss says his QB has a form of Turf-Toe.  He will play but he won't be 100%. Also lost their best receiver for the year from injury last week.
 
I dont like OSU.  Too many points for the Vest.  And Juice could find a way to screw you at the end of the game.
 
I also dont like BYU.  Still licking my wounds from the FSU game.  They just looked 2 gears behind.  I still think they have a bulls-eye on their back.
 
Favorite plays so far...
Missouri (they are good, Nevada still hasnt found their rythm)
Kansas (still not firing at 100% but the fat man will run it up)
TN (need to prove a point post Florida...back to winning)
Oregon St (think the wrong team is favored here)
Auburn (solid offense, Ball St. Blows....other option bet 1st half)
Michigan (should roll)
Cinci (solid team)
Boise (like your angle on this game)
Central Michigan (Akron QB suspended)
 
Best of luck.  And look forward to seeing your final plays.
 
 
 
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Posted: #16
Here's my two cents. Nebraska has smacked two of the better sun belt teams by an avg of 38 pts. Now they get ULL whose not one of the bette teams. Nebraska will win by 40 this week.
 
The one I would be worried about it TAMU. They gave up 30 to Utah State last week and sure they can score but I'm not sure they can stop UAB from staying within 14.
 
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Posted: #17
Drop BYU and Kansas. If you keep BYU, buy the .5 point.
I like the under for the BYU game.
 
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Posted: #18
Final Card

This is my list of 10 games... I like multiple's of 5, and had trouble setting up the 2nd set (which originally had 7 games, the missing 2 being Nebraska and Notre Dame).

Top 5:
Missouri
Tennessee
Boise State
Georgia Tech
BYU (Etrigan, I know you don't like it but I just don't see CSU as even close to capable to play with these guys.  I will agree they are not worth the hype they got after weeks 1,2.)

Second Tier
Kansas
Ohio State
Penn State
Texas A&M
Mississippi


 
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Posted: #19
Spartan,
 
Love your top 3 and GL!  May week 4 be another profitable one.
 
Side note on your 2nd tier....Check RB injury for Texas A&M before you place your wager (Texas A&M didnt cover last week for me against a lesser team as a note)
 
 
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Posted: #20
GL this week!!!!
 
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Posted: #21
GL this week Spartan. Hope you have another good one. 

My favs from your list are Missouri, Kansas, and Miss and Boise. 
 
 
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Posted: #22
I didn't see any news about the RB being injured, what I saw was that their top WR is out 4-6 weeks. 

Point noted about Utah State.  That was simply unacceptable.  In hindsight perhaps I should have just stayed away from this game, but it is what I posted and will stick with.  I am hoping that the bigger conference school got a wake-up call last week and will not look past UAB, but work to get ready and school them (keyword being hoping). 
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