has Nebraska joined the sun belt

slo - tried to answer questions below

Could you give me a break down on how you cap a game. What basic key elements, or formula are you using?

Basically approach is fairly simple in theory - play out the entire game in my head (such that it is) to come up with a final predicted score considering many and all factors. Then if the line or total available differs from the score by 7 pts or more it could be a play (10 pts or more could be stronger play). For example if predict Ole Miss 30 Tex Tech 28 and opening number is TT 6.5 then that's a 8.5 pt difference in favor of Ole Miss play, if number opens at TT only -3 (5 pt diff) then that would probably not be a play.

Among factors considered to come up with score (which takes experience) - how each team matches up against opponent based on stats and current and prior boxscores giving more weight to recent (i.e. running and passing game for each offense measured against other teams run and pass defense, special teams), series history (1-2 yrs), injuries (if they are injuries who are the replacements and overall team depth), each team tendencies in that type of matchup (fav/dog, home/road, conf/nonconf, grass/turf, etc), any emotional or motivational factors for either side as far as likely being higher or lower than normal, etc. A lot of this can be done during the preceeding week (Mon-Sat) and then factor in any changes, factors, or injuries due to most recent Sat game.

Any particular College Fts mags you like. Or web sites you like to read during the off season?

Phil Steele and 2-3 others such as Athlon, Lindys, etc. As far as websites - like to read the team websites especially during the spring and fall camps or during season if looking for particular injury or other information and monitor various injury reports available online.

do you read or put much use in line movement on games?

Not much - if I like the early number I'll play it knowing that 90% of the time the early number will be eaten up early if it's off or 'soft' (key is recognizing a soft number correctly of course to be on right side of later movement). If the early number is not a play, and later in the week public money shifts far enough to become a play then it might a late addition (also good to have a couple books to shop lines if possible). Basically whatever it takes to have the best possible number at the end of the day, sometimes that is the opening number, other times it might be intentionally waiting for the line to go up or down closer to game day. At the end of the day it only matters what number you have and the result on the field, which side the public ends up with makes no difference whatsoever (unless you're waiting to take a particular side and anticipate public money will move it). For example if you can get Ole Miss +6.5 early and later the line moves to 4.5, the reason it moved ultimately makes NO difference as to the outcome on the field only that it did move and now the line is not as favorable.