Posted:
#1
My Bowl write-ups, if you have been following them, have been almost dead on. The reason is because I focus on the constants from each team not just recent play and motivation. Tonight, like last night when I called Ohio State and the under, I see some very obvious things with the teams that again are being overlooked in all the hype. Also note that a large number of Ball States games this year were on ESPN primetime and Ball put those games over (lending to the over inflation when the line was made.)
When Ball State plays Tulsa tonight in a game that is being touted as a high scoring affair (debate as to how high) the Over/under will be a topic of great debate. There is talk of some weather and injury that have already deflated the total to 73 (as of now) and I see getting as low as 70.5 by kick-off.
This takes us to the big questions...how many will they score tonight? Which offense wins out?
my answer...just like last night...NEITHER!
To me however this situation tonight reeks of last night. It is GLARING to me that we have a Ball State defense that seems to have been completely overlooked and will be the biggest determining factor in the side and total of this game.
Ball State this year has NOT PLAYED IN ONE GAME THAT HAS GONE OVER 70 POINTS. NONE.
In fact, Ball State has not allowed more the 24 against all year except for the MAC Final against Buffalo where they allowed 42. The 42 points is very deceiving though... unless you watched the game or read the box score.
Of Buffalo's 42 in that game, 2 TDs were on fumble returns for TDs (not the Ball State Deference fault) when Ball State was in Buffalo's red zone. Another Buff TD was after a failed onsides kick attemot by Ball that gave Buff amazing field position in a situation where Ball States perfect season had been ruined... and with little time left Buffalo punched in another TD to put them at 42 for the game against a devastated Ball Defense (not characteristic of a D that played great al year).. In this game Ball had 5 turnovers, but the despite the look of a blowout, Ball's Defense actually held Buffalo to a mere 95 yarsd rushing and 206 pasing. This was a nice effort against a good Buffalo QB Drew Willy and RB Starks.
Other then that game, Ball State D has been very good against the pass a signifigant partof Tulsa's game) both at home and on the road. For the season Ball State is allowing an averge of just over 200 yrads (206) a game.
Now I know everyone is going to say that Tulsa has been great rushing the ball averaging 250+ per game on the ground on the ground and that can't be ignored. My answer once again is that those stats are an illusion. The reason is because that number is not a "constant" indicator of how Tulsa plays. It is infalted by the Tulane game where they rushed for 489 in one game against a horrible rush D from tulane that quit in the first half and was decimated by injuries. They also got 329 against Central Arkansas and 321 versus UTEP. These types of numbers make Tulsa's offense a look a littlle more powerful then it really is.
Now don't get me wrong, I am not saying that Tulsa can't run and there offense isn't good, its just that in reality they are not as good as the stats make them look. They are definately a good rushing team. But as evident in the East carolina game where they rushed for 200 yards, it took them 55 carries to get there (a very modest 3.7 per play.) They also went signigantly UNDER the total in that game of 66.
Tonight here is what I see happening:
Based on this year here are the keys..
Its Ball States Defense that has a 10 1/2 point advantage in the game. Altough Tulsa has some big yardage numbers and points for the year, alot of them were meaningless and against BAD football teams. When we clear away all the fat, its really going to shape up to be a competitive low scoring game that Tulsa won't feel comfortable operating in. This game will be frustrating for Tulsa playing against a good defnce that won't allow them to run wild...thus forcing them into the type of game that they played against ECU.
The biggest differnce in the two teams back breaking confrence games these teams played...and what truly puts me on Ball State....is that Ball State gave away their confrence game (they didn't ge beat by Buffalo, they beat themselves) ...Tulsa straight up got beat by a better team (East Carolina).
Playing:
Ball State +2.5
Under 73
GL!
When Ball State plays Tulsa tonight in a game that is being touted as a high scoring affair (debate as to how high) the Over/under will be a topic of great debate. There is talk of some weather and injury that have already deflated the total to 73 (as of now) and I see getting as low as 70.5 by kick-off.
This takes us to the big questions...how many will they score tonight? Which offense wins out?
my answer...just like last night...NEITHER!
To me however this situation tonight reeks of last night. It is GLARING to me that we have a Ball State defense that seems to have been completely overlooked and will be the biggest determining factor in the side and total of this game.
Ball State this year has NOT PLAYED IN ONE GAME THAT HAS GONE OVER 70 POINTS. NONE.
In fact, Ball State has not allowed more the 24 against all year except for the MAC Final against Buffalo where they allowed 42. The 42 points is very deceiving though... unless you watched the game or read the box score.
Of Buffalo's 42 in that game, 2 TDs were on fumble returns for TDs (not the Ball State Deference fault) when Ball State was in Buffalo's red zone. Another Buff TD was after a failed onsides kick attemot by Ball that gave Buff amazing field position in a situation where Ball States perfect season had been ruined... and with little time left Buffalo punched in another TD to put them at 42 for the game against a devastated Ball Defense (not characteristic of a D that played great al year).. In this game Ball had 5 turnovers, but the despite the look of a blowout, Ball's Defense actually held Buffalo to a mere 95 yarsd rushing and 206 pasing. This was a nice effort against a good Buffalo QB Drew Willy and RB Starks.
Other then that game, Ball State D has been very good against the pass a signifigant partof Tulsa's game) both at home and on the road. For the season Ball State is allowing an averge of just over 200 yrads (206) a game.
Now I know everyone is going to say that Tulsa has been great rushing the ball averaging 250+ per game on the ground on the ground and that can't be ignored. My answer once again is that those stats are an illusion. The reason is because that number is not a "constant" indicator of how Tulsa plays. It is infalted by the Tulane game where they rushed for 489 in one game against a horrible rush D from tulane that quit in the first half and was decimated by injuries. They also got 329 against Central Arkansas and 321 versus UTEP. These types of numbers make Tulsa's offense a look a littlle more powerful then it really is.
Now don't get me wrong, I am not saying that Tulsa can't run and there offense isn't good, its just that in reality they are not as good as the stats make them look. They are definately a good rushing team. But as evident in the East carolina game where they rushed for 200 yards, it took them 55 carries to get there (a very modest 3.7 per play.) They also went signigantly UNDER the total in that game of 66.
Tonight here is what I see happening:
Based on this year here are the keys..
| Overall | In-Depth | ||||||
| Off | Avg | Yards | Pass | Rush | Y/R | Y/A |
|
BALST TULSA |
36.6 47.4 |
459.4 565.0 |
266.7 310.2 |
192.7 254.8 |
5.1 5.4 |
9.2 10.2 |
| Def | Avg | Yards | Pass | Rush | Y/R | Y/A |
|
BALST TULSA |
18.6 29.1 |
347.9 392.3 |
206.2 258.8 |
141.8 133.5 |
4.3 3.9 |
6.3 8.0 |
Its Ball States Defense that has a 10 1/2 point advantage in the game. Altough Tulsa has some big yardage numbers and points for the year, alot of them were meaningless and against BAD football teams. When we clear away all the fat, its really going to shape up to be a competitive low scoring game that Tulsa won't feel comfortable operating in. This game will be frustrating for Tulsa playing against a good defnce that won't allow them to run wild...thus forcing them into the type of game that they played against ECU.
The biggest differnce in the two teams back breaking confrence games these teams played...and what truly puts me on Ball State....is that Ball State gave away their confrence game (they didn't ge beat by Buffalo, they beat themselves) ...Tulsa straight up got beat by a better team (East Carolina).
Playing:
Ball State +2.5
Under 73
GL!
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