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FREAK PICS!!! (Week 9)

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Posted: #1
I have written extensively about this game in various threads about why Auburn is one of the best plays on the board this week.  I got this game at +3.5.  The line is currently +3 at Bookmaker.  I would consider this play a "Best Bet" all the way to Auburn -2.5 so I wouldn't sweat the line too much.  As I have said many times, Auburn WILL NOT lose this game!!!  I also really, really like the UNDER in this game as well, but I hate betting the side and total in the same game, so I'll lay off.
 
Auburn +3 @ West Virginia (Best Bet)
Auburn ML @ West Viginia (Best Bet)
 
I'll also post one game for Saturday that will be a "Best Bet."
 
Alabama -6.5 @ Tennessee (Best Bet)
 
If you have any questions about either of these games, please feel free to ask!!!  I'll post the rest of my plays friday night as usual.
 
 
FREAK OUT!!!!
 
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Posted: #2
love auburn as well!!
 
 
gl man!
 
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Posted: #3
GL this week Jimmy on West Virginia though can't believe you like Auburn that much to make a best bet I guess we will see liking Bama Tennessee sucks bol
 
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Posted: #4
GL Jimmy. Love the plays. I'm on Auburn and under but I'm still thinking about Bama.
 
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Posted: #5
Hey Freak, didnt know if you read the last week thread again. Answering your question . The medal says "DANH-DU BOI-TINH"  translate to " Medal of Honor"  .. I took a small wager on Wvu and the under.. BOL freaks 
 
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Posted: #6
goood luck freak
 
risk out !!!!!
 
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Posted: #7
GL Freak I'm convinced now to roll the Tigers +3 (3 units) and also leanin towards the TIDE.. Tennessee is terrible and completely discombobulated!!!!!!!
 
jobu out!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #8
I did read that Phan - "Medal of Honor."  I appreciate that very much!!!
 
Too bad we're on opposite sides tomorrow, but I absolutely LOVE Auburn tomorrow.  I just can't see how WVU's offense will score on one of the best defenses in the nation.  I'll be shocked if WVU scores 14 points tomorrow!!!  I also think you'll see some improvement in Auburn's offense now that the QB controversy has been settled.
 
 buddy!!!
 
FREAK OUT!!!
 
 
 
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Posted: #9
Aubrn and the under!!  13-10 Auburn.   Could definetly see WV getting shut out.  Auburn has done well against the spread, ask Tim Tebow.  Big play on Auburn and the under
 
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Posted: #10
WVA is a nasty place to play under the lights.
 
If you like Aub fine, but not a venue worthy of a top play, unless you have inside info on Pat White...
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by atlhawks:

WVA is a nasty place to play under the lights.
 
If you like Aub fine, but not a venue worthy of a top play, unless you have inside info on Pat White...

I respectfully disagree.  I'm fully aware of WVU's home field advantage.

My inside info on Pat White is that he won't be able to score against one of the best defenses in the country - at least not very much.  The only two decent defenses they have faced this year is ECU & Colorado, and they scored 3 & 10 points respectively.  Auburn's defense is far better than either of those defenses.  WVU's offensive high-water mark this year is 27 points against a pathetic Marshall team.  Now granted the ECU & Colorado games were on the road, but road venues have very little effect on defenses.

Now ask yourself this question atl.  How many points do you honestly think WVU will score against one of the best defenses in the nation.  A team who's defensive coordinator held them to 7 points last year with a defense that was a whole lot less talented than the one he has now, and against an offense that was significantly better?  I honestly think they'll be lucky to score 10 points, and they may not score at all.  I can't lay 3-4 points with a team that will struggle to score in the double digets.

FREAK OUT!!!

 
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Posted: #12
Below are some of the writeups I've posted in other threads on the Auburn game.
 
Post #1
 
Nice write-up Chris, but I must correct you on the Auburn QB situation.  Kody Burns WILL be the starter, and as of right now, Chris Todd is not in the rotation.
 
True freshman Barrett Trotter got significant reps during the bye week as did Neil Caudle.  Trotter definitely will dress for the West Virginia game, but Tubberville said it was a secret if he'll burn his red shirt in this game.  It's not clear who will dress between Caudle and Todd.  Because this is a road game, it's possible both may dress.  The bottom line is that Cody WILL be the starter.
 
Auburn is a very banged up team, and their bye week couldn't have come at a better time.  They are extremely thin in the defensive secondary, and their best player (Jerraud Powers) did not play versus Arkansas.  That really hurt them against a pass-happy team like the Razorbacks.  The good new for the Tigers is that it looks like Powers will be back in the lineup this week.
 
It also appears that RBs Brad Lester (knee) & Ben Tate (hamstring), WR Robert Dunn (ankle), DE Antonio Coleman (various ailments) will all play.
 
I'll also side with the SEC team getting 4 points versus a mediocre (at best) Big Least team.  Auburn +4 is the play here!!!
 
 
FREAK OUT!!!
 
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Posted: #13
Post #2
 
I agree that this game will most-likely not the reach total, which is all the more reason to take the points here.  I read somewhere where someone said Auburn will probably only score 14 points.  Well, I think 14 may be all they need.  I'd be very surprised if West Virginia hits that number.

Remember that Auburn's defensive coordinator is Paul Rhoads who spent the last 8 years as Pitt's defensive cordinator.  This guy is intimately familar with the Mountaineer attack.  In fact he prevented West Virginia from making it to the national championship game last year when his defense absolutely dominated the Mountaineer offense holding them to just 7 points (they scored 2 on a safety on the last play of the game).  I watched this game and the 7 points doesn't even begin to tell the story how dominate Pitt's defense was.

Pitts offense was just pathetic.  Because they couldn't move ball, it seemed like West Virginia started drives on Pittsburgh's side of the field about 20 times, and Pitts defense just sniffed them out everytime.  It was amazing.  Despite their incredible field position the entire second half, and only trailing by 6 points, all they needed was one 40-50 yard drive to win the game.  They never came close!!!

Now Rhoads coaches a defense with much more talent, playing against a Mountaineer offense that is half of what it was last year, AND had almost 2 weeks to prepare!!!  I think if Auburn scores 14 points (Pitt only scored 13 last year), that'll probably be enough to win the game, or at the very least, cover the spread.

I just can't see Auburn not winning this game!!!

FREAK OUT!!!

 
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Posted: #14
Post #3
 
No, Todd is NOT in the QB rotation at all.  I don't want to get too long with my response, so I'll try to keep it as brief as possible.
 
As I've been telling my fellow cappers whom I speak to on the phone on a weekly basis, Auburn had a lot of internal problems before the season ever started.  They were also hit hard by injuries before the season started as well.  I told them all (pre-season) that Auburn was no where near a top 10 team and was probably not a top 25 team.
 
The biggest conflict on the team surrounded the QB situation (again this was pre-season).  Kodi Burns (who is black) played a significant number snaps last year, and was being groomed by Tommy Tubberville to be the heir apparent to senior QB Brandon Cox.  Enter new offensive coordinator Tony Franklin.
 
Franklin brought in Chris Todd (who is white) because he had some experience running the Franklin Airraid offense.  In other words, Todd was Franklin's boy!!!  When it became apparent that Franklin wanted Todd and other coaches and players (mainly black players) wanted Burns, you had a good old fashion QB controversey brewing.  You also had a divided team.
 
Against Tennessee, Todd played the whole first half, but at halftime Tubberville forced Franklin start the second half with Burns behind center.
 
Now that Franklin is gone, two things have happened.  The first is Burns has been inserted as the undisputed started, and barring an injury, I think Todd's Auburn career is done!!!  Todd's Auburn career is probably done even if Burns does get injured.  Secondly, the team is much more unified now that Franklin & Todd are out of the picture.  In short, the Franklin departure is a big positive for the team.
 
As I said above, the fact that Tubberville conducted an open tryout during the bye week between Caudle & Barrett Trotter for what I believe is the backup QB job (behind Burns), tends to confirm what I'm saying.
 
If we see a QB sharing snaps with Burns this week, it won't be Todd IMO.  I'm pretty sure it'll be true freshman Barrett Trotter, if anyone at all.  Burns will probably play the whole game though.
 
I hope this clears things up for you a bit.  If you have further questions, please feel free to ask.
 
 to us on our Auburn play!!!
 
FREAK OUT!!!
 
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Posted: #15
Love Auburn all week. Seems like everybody is jumping off the Tigers wagon. But what have WVU done this season? Their offense are just awful. They score 3 against ECU, barely 14 against Colorado and if you bet WVU and watched that game, oh man you're biting your nails hoping to get a 1st down when it's 3rd and 1 and 4th and 1 but yet they still can't get it. I know Pat White was out vs. Syracuse but WVU put up 17 points against Syracuse. Come on, it's Syracuse.

I love this under as well, I think this will be a FG game and the final might be 16-6 or 9-3 Auburn.
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

I have written extensively about this game in various threads about why Auburn is one of the best plays on the board this week.  I got this game at +3.5.  The line is currently +3 at Bookmaker.  I would consider this play a "Best Bet" all the way to Auburn -2.5 so I wouldn't sweat the line too much.  As I have said many times, Auburn WILL NOT lose this game!!!  I also really, really like the UNDER in this game as well, but I hate betting the side and total in the same game, so I'll lay off.
 
Auburn +3 @ West Virginia (Best Bet)
Auburn ML @ West Viginia (Best Bet)
 
I'll also post one game for Saturday that will be a "Best Bet."
 
Alabama -6.5 @ Tennessee (Best Bet)
 
If you have any questions about either of these games, please feel free to ask!!!  I'll post the rest of my plays friday night as usual.
 
 
FREAK OUT!!!!

 

Freak,

Couldn't Agree with you more on those especially the Auburn game.Auburn have abandoned the spread, and is going back to what got them to the dance in years past.

I'm also taking them straight up, ML, Under 39, Teasing Auburn +9 and Under 45.

GL to you bud!!

 

 
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Posted: #17
with you on Auburn...GL freak...you're a good man...
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by atlhawks:

WVA is a nasty place to play under the lights.
 
If you like Aub fine, but not a venue worthy of a top play, unless you have inside info on Pat White...


lmao...r u serious?  i can think of 50 places id rather not play at than wvu.
 
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Posted: #19
Based on your feelings of Auburn winning and the game total going under,
 
Why not play W.V  TT under 21.5 ??
 
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Posted: #20
like the picks freak - BOL this week
 
as far as others comments that WV is tough place at night....after Baton Rouge, Athens, Tuscaloosa, etc, this more like a spring scrimmage crowd for Tigers-  if Auburn loses it won't be because they're worried about the crowd...although horrible offense this year, one of the best road teams in SEC and country
 
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Posted: #21
Im opposite in the AUB-WV game and am kinda after reading your writeups....some good points in there....but I see 2 underachieving teams in the spotlight and roll with the hometeam....I can imagine White scoring some points early on before being shut down....but how is Auburn gonna score? Really, I don´t know...

Leaning on Bama too...not sure enough yet and didn´t pull the trigger there...

What do you think about NoIll -8 and NewMexSt -14....2 plays I really like?

Anyway, BOL Jimmy
 
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Posted: #22
I love Tennessee, from there, hell, look at my Avatar...but Bama is probably going to pound the Vols.  Last year they pummelled us 41-13, or something like that.  Only thing that can help this year is our Defense.  Even so, we still cannot score much against a good team, I hope to hell you are right, but I cannot bet on my Vols anymore this year...I like Auburn though, and I love Air Force, and the Over.
 
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Posted: #23

agree %100 with everything you have i made a lot of the same pts in my posts. one thing to add is when is the last time tuberville has lost 3 in a row? GL

 
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Posted: #24
Great insight, jimmy!  I have the Under already, and the past couple of games I've bet both side and total, and end up even, so I'm stickin with the total!  I was leaning more to WV @ -2.5 tho!  But honestly, with the way both teams have played this year, it's a coin toss!  White has been injury prone this year, and could get taken out of the game again tonight, IMO!
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #25
What do you all think about under 19 for the 1st half? I already have AU locked in at +3.5 with the under 39..
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