808Handicapper's Week 8 College PICS!

Quote Originally Posted by 808Handicapper:

The line on BYU/TCU seems fishy.  But too early to bet on TCU.  This is the reason, the majority of the people who'll bet will bet on BYU.  This will move the line in your favor.  So instead of getting +1, if you wait till Wednesday or later you might receive more points maybe +2 or +3.  The only time you bet early is if you are going with the public in this case BYU to lock the points at the lowest possible spread for you the favored team.

 

My lean in this is BYU but I won't say that it is my pic.  BYU is by far the better team.  Thursday will go I favored team and one underdog in my opinion.  Don't be fooled Vegas wants their money and they will get it.  Like today, they collected on NYG bettors.  I posted on some peoples posts that Cleveland would win easily and even ML to win outright.  It's not about who's the better team or who will dominate who.  Believe me when I say on big games Vegas controls more than we would like to believe.  Keep it real People!  BOL to us all!  

You're wrong there. The line opened at TCU +2.5 and is already down to +1 and a PK at some books. I don't see it going back up.

Releasing plays for Thursday.

TCU -E (2 units)

NC St. +11 (2 units)

These pics are more a fade of the public rather than a pic of the individual stats of the teams.  As an addition, these plays both play at home as the Underdog or Pk.  Remember last week, a lot of favorites (public) plays hit.  This week will be different.  Don't get carried away with betting on the weekdays, you really don't want to go into the weekend down too much.  If you are only playing one play I would definitely go with TCU.  Changed my mind on this play when I did research.  TCU is an exceptional team under the radar and BYU is overated.  They played no top teams so this is their letdown.  Let's make money tomorrow.  Keep it REAL PEEPS! 

Quote Originally Posted by 808Handicapper:

I see TCU winning by 3-7 points.  Weird how the line is moving that way even though everyone and their mother is jumping on BYU.  BOL to us all this afternoon. 

"Ok let me first address where this BYU/TCU line opened at.  This line opened at BYU-2/BYU-1.5.  You are correct that the line has moved to -1 or pk.  But ask yourself why?  Why has it gone down with people still picking BYU?  Do you really think they want more people to continue to pound BYU to make it 90%BYU and 10%TCU?  Then juice the game so that majority of the people lost their money.  Very interesting theory.  I think they set the line somewhere where they could no longer get 50/50.  Because of their mistake in the line to offset their mistake they want people to think that it's a trap.  That way cappers like you, wiseguys, come in late, putting big money on TCU thinking it's a trap.  THEN BAM!!!  BYU 35 - TCU -14."