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Follow the shepherd (week 3 CFB plays)

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Posted: #1
Week 2 results: (10-3 ATS / 4-0 Best bets)
Season to date: (19-4 ATS / 7-1 best bets)
 
Vandy (+10.5) 
Ball St (-6.5) 
Mich St (-20.5) 
*Oklahoma (-20.5)   
*Tx Tech (-9.5)   
*Tulsa (-20.5)   
*Georgia (-23.5)   
So Fla (-13.5) 
Kansas (-20.5) 
BG (-6) 
Oregon (-34.5) 
Oregon St (+17.5) 
Texas (-27) 
 
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Posted: #2
Week 3 bets:
 
*Cal (-13.5)
*USC (-9.5)
*C Mich (-2.5)
*Oklahoma (-20)
Tx Tech (-37)
Missou (-26.5)
Georgia (-6.5)
 
* best bets
 
 
write-ups to come later...
 
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Posted: #3
games i'm still considering: 
 
Penn St (-27)
Aub (-10)
Ariz St (-22)
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by shepherd:

games i'm still considering: 
 
Penn St (-27)
Aub (-10)
Ariz St (-22)

 

also considering...

Mich (-1)

 
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Posted: #5
added:  Mich (-1)
 
 
Updated week 3 plays:
 
*Cal (-13.5)
*USC (-9.5)
*C Mich (-2.5)
*Oklahoma (-20)
Tx Tech (-37)
Missou (-26.5)
Georgia (-6.5)
Mich (-1)
 
* best bets
 
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Posted: #6
if you want 1 bet this week it's Oklahoma... the talent and coaching difference is immense... and when you add the fact that UW is coming off of an absolutely disastrous and heart-breaking loss to BYU... this is tough...
 
when a team like UW has a chance to pull off a big upset one week, but doesn't come through... and then follows that up with a game against an opponent they have no chance of upsetting... that team generally gets white-washed... all of their emotion was put into last weeks game... that was a game they had a chance to steal...
 
this is not...
 
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Posted: #7
Good Luck !! Nice Record !!!
 
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Posted: #8
ok, here's the USC write-up you've been waiting for...
 
much like Ohio St, i have been looking ahead to this matchup... before week 1, i expected i would probably just sit and watch this game, or possibly bet on Ohio St, thinking this is the year they get over the hump, what with all of that big game experience and all of that talent...
 
then i saw USC play Virginia... watched the entire game... i was blown away from what i saw from Mark Sanchez... overall, the team looked great, but Sanchez looked like he could walk onto about 5 NFL teams this week and be a starter... no joke!  the guy was doing things only about 5 or 10 NFL QBs are doing right now...
 
so next i needed to see some things from Ohio St... now, when evaluating OSU against Ohio U you must be careful... it is not a game that lends itself to accurately gauging OSU... the oddsmakers put the line at 34, but the history of this series shows that OSU sleep walks through the game, and that a 14 pt spread was probably more accurate... so be very clear... i am not making a bet on USC simply because OSU couldn't blow out Ohio...
 
as i watched the OSU - Ohio game, and it got into the 3rd quarter with OSU losing the game, that is when i really started to watch the game... because that is when this game became a game where you actually could start to get an accurate gauge...
 
here we had OSU losing to Ohio... no matter how much you want to say they were looking ahead to USC, there came a point in the 3rd quarter where every single coach, player and fan knew that this game was quickly becoming their entire season... if they didn't win that game, they might as well not bother suiting up for the USC game, because the season would have been over!
 
so at this point of the game, i wanted to see how OSU was going to respond... how did they respond?  they continued getting pushed around by the Ohio U offensive line... i'm not joking... when push came to shove... they kept getting pushed and shoved around by a small OU team... now what am i supposed to think the USC line is going to do to OSU if Ohio U can push them around in the 4th quarter when OSU absolutely had to step up its game...
 
you can say, OSU came back and did what they had to do... yea, they won the game... but it took a serious gut-wrenching effort against a very weak MAC team, at home...
 
i don't need to say much about USC... but look at this OSU team... what is their offense?  let's pretend Beanie Wells is 100% healthy... what is their offense?  it is Beanie Wells... that's it!  they are vanilla... they are a banana split with 1 scoop of vanilla ice cream, no cherry, no nuts, no chocolate sauce... vanilla!
 
that would be all well and good if they had a QB that could take over a game... enter Boeckman...
 
do i really need to say more at this point?  that USC pro-style offense is going to make OSU work hard all day long... what does USC really have to fear in this game?  oh no... we're playing against a running back...
 
please!
 
want one more thing?  look at the pointspread... everyone and their mother loves USC in this game... but nobody is betting it because they scared everyone off with the huge line... it was obvious coming into this game that the public was going to be looking at USC... if they really wanted that USC money, they would have opened this around 7 or 7.5... they are doing everything they can to scare away USC money in a game that (on the GOY boards) was around a pick em prior to the OSU-Ohio game...
 
think about that one, too... there is already money on that OSU-USC game even before this week... those lines have been out for about 6 weeks... lots of money was on USC or OSU long before lines came out this week... so, as a book... why would you move the line so far?  now you are giving all of those early USC backers an easy middle, right?  they have USC (-1) and OSU (+10.5)???  are they crazy?
 
no, they're not... they're hoping to get back some money they figure they are going to lose... when the books appear to be unconcerned about getting burned by the middle, that should tell you something... that is how i read this line...
 
i think USC is going to dismantle them... will be a ton of emotion early on, and expect to see OSU really flying around the field making some things happen early on... but, they will struggle to convert TDs all game, and the OSU defense will be strained to their limit from start to finish... expect it to be at least a TD lead for USC by halftime, and expect it to get somewhat ugly in the 2nd half...
 
USC  38-17
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by Upside:

Good Luck !! Nice Record !!!

 

thanks... that's a nice backside you got there, upside...

 
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Posted: #10
just to clarify... GOY means Games of the Year... certain books post a huge board of key college games going all the way into December... they post these games well before week 1, and after every single Saturday they adjust the lines and put them back up...
 
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Posted: #11
I agree with your assessment  of the USC/OSU game. I tivo'd & watched both games several times & came to many of the same conclusions. It took a fumbled punt to get OSU in position to win. Make no mistake, the game was in doubt in the 4th qtr (no matter what osu fans here claim).
 Now they face a USC team that has the type of talent osu only sees in bowl games. Boekman & Sanchez will both be under pressure but Sanchez has more options available to him. I'm sure pryor will get in the game somehow, but he looked like a deer in HL's vs Ohio.............not sure he'll look any better here.

 Turnovers!!! Could keep osu in this game or see them flushed early. Key factor as always in a game like this.

  GL this week
 
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Posted: #12
OFFENSIVE LINE OHIO ST
 
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Nice record, and I completely agree with your assessment of these two teams.

Many Buckeye fans want to make the argument, that OSU was looking ahead to the USC game, but that's just full of bologna. This team has one of the best coach in college football, a veteran team, who should not have any problems dismantling a bad team, any day of the week. Yes, they came back and won the game, unless they were playing from behind on purpose, which I doubt, they should never have to trail a bad team like Ohio, all the way into the 4Q. A REAL good team, would have made the adjustment at the end of the 1Q, and average team after halftime. But the 4Q??? This isn't a coincident. Either they are not that good, or they fold under pressure, waiting for a lucky break in a game.

All the talk about the depth they have, I must be blind because beyond Wells, I don't see anyone else.
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by THEMUGG:

It took a fumbled punt to get OSU in position to win. Make no mistake, the game was in doubt in the 4th qtr (no matter what osu fans here claim).

100% accurate... and don't forget that the TD that pushed it up to a 12 point margin of victory was a late punt return for a TD...

 
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Posted: #15
Great thread shepherd. Your writeups are very informative and help my capping alot! I hope you can set up a thread for CFB for the rest of the season.
I am all over that Michigan game- I think they will shut them down.
 
Good Luck this week! Keep up the good work.
 
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Mannix... i loved Mich last year when they played ND, and it was one of the easiest bets of the year... Mich doesn't have Mike Hart, which was a very big reason i bet them last year... but Mich still is the bigger, faster, more talented, more athletic team...
 
i mean, it would be one thing if ND was promising... but having to come from behind against a team that lost to Cal Poly?  not good...
 
by the way, i saw that the SD St coach, when asked to compare Cal Poly and ND, said it was a tough call...
 
pretty sure Michigan would beat Cal Poly by 30... so that's where i'm putting the final score on this game... 30-0...
 
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Posted: #17
might still add one or two more plays... if i do, will be between...
 
Auburn, Penn St, Mich St, Ariz St...
 
Mich St and PSU are the most likely candidates...
 
kind of surprised i don't see much talk about ASU... they are a very good team laying around 3 TDs at home against a very bad UNLV team (trust me, i know)... seems like this one would be jumping out at people a bit more...
 
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oh yea... forgot i wanted to do this... one angle i always look at is who are the top teams in the country... keep track of the top 6 or 8 and those teams (if you are accurate) will win you money just by riding them all year long...
 
my current top 6:
 
1) USC
2) Oklahoma
3) Florida
4) Georgia
5) Missouri
6) LSU
 
on the bubble: Ohio St, Oregon, Auburn, Penn St
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by shepherd:

Week 3 bets:
 
*Cal (-13.5)
*USC (-9.5)
*C Mich (-2.5)
*Oklahoma (-20)
Tx Tech (-37)
Missou (-26.5)
Georgia (-6.5)
 
* best bets
 
 
write-ups to come later...


Your insight is much appreciated Shepherd.  Good luck this weekend, and I am not fighting you on OU this time! 
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by shepherd:

ok, here's the USC write-up you've been waiting for...
 
much like Ohio St, i have been looking ahead to this matchup... before week 1, i expected i would probably just sit and watch this game, or possibly bet on Ohio St, thinking this is the year they get over the hump, what with all of that big game experience and all of that talent...
 
then i saw USC play Virginia... watched the entire game... i was blown away from what i saw from Mark Sanchez... overall, the team looked great, but Sanchez looked like he could walk onto about 5 NFL teams this week and be a starter... no joke!  the guy was doing things only about 5 or 10 NFL QBs are doing right now...
 
so next i needed to see some things from Ohio St... now, when evaluating OSU against Ohio U you must be careful... it is not a game that lends itself to accurately gauging OSU... the oddsmakers put the line at 34, but the history of this series shows that OSU sleep walks through the game, and that a 14 pt spread was probably more accurate... so be very clear... i am not making a bet on USC simply because OSU couldn't blow out Ohio...
 
as i watched the OSU - Ohio game, and it got into the 3rd quarter with OSU losing the game, that is when i really started to watch the game... because that is when this game became a game where you actually could start to get an accurate gauge...
 
here we had OSU losing to Ohio... no matter how much you want to say they were looking ahead to USC, there came a point in the 3rd quarter where every single coach, player and fan knew that this game was quickly becoming their entire season... if they didn't win that game, they might as well not bother suiting up for the USC game, because the season would have been over!
 
so at this point of the game, i wanted to see how OSU was going to respond... how did they respond?  they continued getting pushed around by the Ohio U offensive line... i'm not joking... when push came to shove... they kept getting pushed and shoved around by a small OU team... now what am i supposed to think the USC line is going to do to OSU if Ohio U can push them around in the 4th quarter when OSU absolutely had to step up its game...
 
you can say, OSU came back and did what they had to do... yea, they won the game... but it took a serious gut-wrenching effort against a very weak MAC team, at home...
 
i don't need to say much about USC... but look at this OSU team... what is their offense?  let's pretend Beanie Wells is 100% healthy... what is their offense?  it is Beanie Wells... that's it!  they are vanilla... they are a banana split with 1 scoop of vanilla ice cream, no cherry, no nuts, no chocolate sauce... vanilla!
 
that would be all well and good if they had a QB that could take over a game... enter Boeckman...
 
do i really need to say more at this point?  that USC pro-style offense is going to make OSU work hard all day long... what does USC really have to fear in this game?  oh no... we're playing against a running back...
 
please!
 
want one more thing?  look at the pointspread... everyone and their mother loves USC in this game... but nobody is betting it because they scared everyone off with the huge line... it was obvious coming into this game that the public was going to be looking at USC... if they really wanted that USC money, they would have opened this around 7 or 7.5... they are doing everything they can to scare away USC money in a game that (on the GOY boards) was around a pick em prior to the OSU-Ohio game...
 
think about that one, too... there is already money on that OSU-USC game even before this week... those lines have been out for about 6 weeks... lots of money was on USC or OSU long before lines came out this week... so, as a book... why would you move the line so far?  now you are giving all of those early USC backers an easy middle, right?  they have USC (-1) and OSU (+10.5)???  are they crazy?
 
no, they're not... they're hoping to get back some money they figure they are going to lose... when the books appear to be unconcerned about getting burned by the middle, that should tell you something... that is how i read this line...
 
i think USC is going to dismantle them... will be a ton of emotion early on, and expect to see OSU really flying around the field making some things happen early on... but, they will struggle to convert TDs all game, and the OSU defense will be strained to their limit from start to finish... expect it to be at least a TD lead for USC by halftime, and expect it to get somewhat ugly in the 2nd half...
 
USC  38-17
DING DING DING WE HAVE A WINNER
SHEP That quit possibly, no no it  was without a doubt the most thought out and INFORMATIVE thing I have ever read on covers...
your insight amazes me.. Thanks for it    
 
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Posted: #21
dam near same card
 
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Posted: #22

Huck... thanks... high praise... hopefully some of it is right...

i really don't like laying these kind of points in this kind of big game against two really good teams, and against a team in OSU that is the definition of experienced: not only in terms of returning starters, where they practically return everyone from last year, but also in terms of big game experience... coming into this year i was thinking OSU was gonna be a great team to bet on, possibly even in a big game situation like this...

but man i just don't see it...

it's almost like the only way i can see this not covering is if we have all been duped!  basically, if the fix is in... and i don't really mean in the sense that USC will throw the game or the refs will make bad calls... i mean like a setup, the way Ohio St looked no better than an upper echelon FCS football team... and it especially struck me how bad they were when the game was on the line well into the 2nd half... i mean that was staggering... and meanwhile i had just watched USC's backups running up the score on the road against Virginia's starters...

what the hell am i supposed to think? 

if OSU really did try to look bad against USC, and even have the composure to maintain their crappy play when their season was on the line... then i've been had...

so this game is a great example of why i don't load up on my best bets... if they are gonna burn me they will burn me for 1 unit just like my other favorite bets... but they are gonna have to burn me on the other games on my card if they really want to hurt me...

 
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Oklahoma (-20):  OU is great up front both offensively and defensively, and UW is not... especially defensively... two good things about Oklahoma when betting on them... 1) their offense is about ball control... they have a very smart QB who gets rid of the ball fast and makes accurate throws to some very good WRs... their O-line gives him all day... and the best thing about the offense is their running game... they can salt games away when it gets ugly... gotta love that... and 2) their defense is great at the start of the game, but when they start to get a big lead their defense is absolutely dominant... they feed off of making you one-dimensional, and UW is very susceptible to becoming one-dimensional...
 
UW does have the ability to put together a very good running game, and could even get it going against OU... but again, if they get far behind and get forced to abandon it... bad news...
 
the capper for me is what happened last week... i'd be on it anyway, without a doubt, as a best bet... UW is just so far out of their league... but when you add that crushing loss against BYU, a game they had a chance to steal and really get their season rolling... ouch!  there is a big difference in you mentality when coming home to play OU after a huge win, and coming home to play OU after a brutal loss... it even just sounds different...
 
this is definitely my favorite play of the week...
 
Oklahoma  54-14
 
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Posted: #24
with you on Missou (-26.5),Georgia (-6.5),Mich (-1)
 
What are you thoughts with Rutgers/UNC ?
 
 
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Posted: #25
 
Shep...Riding with you again,...Like I said, I like your write ups, more info here then any other reporter, journalist or sports writter...Your very Good.
 
I hope they all come through...
 
BTW...USF should of held on to that 14 point lead in the 4rth...But hey, if my aunt had balls she would be my uncle...
 
Anyway, what do you think of Kansas (USF)  and Rutgers (UNC)?
 
 
 
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