3* 5-0, +15.00
2* 5-3, +3.40
1* 14-11, +4.58
Year: 24-14, +22.98
Conference ActionSeptember 29, 2007
Northern Illinois at Central Michigan
Selection: Central Michigan
Add Central Michigan to the list of teams that have lost to a 1-AA team this year. Not only did they lose, they got torched. Perhaps they were looking ahead to getting back to MAC play this week and avenging their only MAC conference loss last year? Only thing I can think of. Then again, North Dakota State isn’t all that bad of a squad either. The loss snapped a five game home winning streak, and I expect CMU to bounce back in a big way. Northern Illinois has also lost to a 1-AA team this year as well (SIU). Northern Illinois is just not good this year. I can’t explain the line, yah, probably a little inflated due to CMU’s bad loss this past week, but CMU relies on the big play to win ballgames, and NIU has been giving big plays up all year. At 1-0 in the conference, CMU is looking for a 2-0 start, at home, in a big revenge spot, and it’s homecoming. CMU has been tested by big powers Kansas and Purdue, while Northern Illinois played Iowa and three bottom tier teams. Second straight roady for Northern Illinois, and I’ll be honest, despite my CMU #4 and Northern Illinois #5 pre-season rankings, I’d probably lay –3 on any team in college football w/ Northern Illinois coming in given the current angles…
3* Central Michigan –2.5September 29, 2007
California at Oregon
Selection: California +4.5
Having my pre-season #3 getting points (more than a FG) on the road against my pre-season #6 is something I will look for value in. Cal has faced three no huddle spread offenses thus far, giving them a bit of preparation for the upcoming week, and while Cal has a few injuries on it’s defense, this is going to be a shootout and in a rivalry game, I’ll gladly take the points…
1* California +4.5September 29, 2007
UTEP at SMU
Selection: SMU PK
I like this game quite a bit. My pre-season #3 (SMU) and #4 (UTEP). UTEP just hasn’t been all that great on the road in recent years, while SMU has been pretty consistent at home as well. A revenge game here, as both teams played to a 3 point ballgame last year with SMU falling short in the 4th quarter as 13 point dogs. I’ll gladly take a PK w/ what I think is the better team in this match up.
2* SMU PKSeptember 29, 2007
Western Michigan at Toledo
Selection: Western Michigan PK
Another game, just pick the winner. Western Michigan won last year outright as 10.5 dogs. I have Western Michigan at #1 in their half of the MAC, and Toledo at #3 in that same half. Having said that I have WMU at #1 pre-season, the MAC has taken a different approach to conference records this year. Only games within your half of the conference count towards your divisional record, so this makes it even more important here. Western Michigan knows the importance here. They have Toledo, NIU, and EMU on the road. A win here would almost lock up their half of the conference in my opinion. Sure, WMU hasn’t won at Toledo since 1988, but WMU has the offensive targets that can control the game. While WMU and Toledo have both played tough competition entering this match up, the fatigue should start to take its toll on Toledo here. They’ll see another barrage of passes I believe, and Toledo just doesn’t have the defense to stop it. Coming off of a week (that probably included some extra preparation for Toledo), WMU will be ready to compete after beating Central Connecticut State, resting it’s starters, and having a few key pieces to the puzzle return off of injury. I’ll take the better squad…
2* Western Michigan PK -115September 29, 2007
Kent State at Ohio
Selection: Ohio –2
Without looking too much in-depth, I have Ohio at #2 pre-season and Kent State at #6. This is a Kent State team w/ a great QB, he just doesn’t have the talent around him to make him better. Their defense is marginal at best, and they are coming off of a game which everyone labeled as a “must-win” for them. How do they bounce back here? This is Ohio’s conference opener, after battling Wyoming and Virginia Tech the past two weeks. When I looked at pre-season to now, Ohio’s defense has been good as expected, but they just aren’t getting the #’s I thought they would out of the backfield. However, having faced Wyoming and Virginia Tech, those #’s are probably a bit twisted. McRae should keep the Kent State defense on the field, and while this game will probably come down to the team who makes the fewest mistakes, I have to side with Ohio in their home opener and the better defensive squad (six fumble recoveries, seven interceptions, fourteen sacks)…
1* Ohio -2
That is conference action wrapped up. Write-ups are a little short, as I leave for the week on Tuesday for business.
3* 5-0, +15.00
2* 5-3, +3.40
1* 14-11, +4.58
Year: 24-14, +22.98
Conference ActionSeptember 29, 2007
Northern Illinois at Central Michigan
Selection: Central Michigan
Add Central Michigan to the list of teams that have lost to a 1-AA team this year. Not only did they lose, they got torched. Perhaps they were looking ahead to getting back to MAC play this week and avenging their only MAC conference loss last year? Only thing I can think of. Then again, North Dakota State isn’t all that bad of a squad either. The loss snapped a five game home winning streak, and I expect CMU to bounce back in a big way. Northern Illinois has also lost to a 1-AA team this year as well (SIU). Northern Illinois is just not good this year. I can’t explain the line, yah, probably a little inflated due to CMU’s bad loss this past week, but CMU relies on the big play to win ballgames, and NIU has been giving big plays up all year. At 1-0 in the conference, CMU is looking for a 2-0 start, at home, in a big revenge spot, and it’s homecoming. CMU has been tested by big powers Kansas and Purdue, while Northern Illinois played Iowa and three bottom tier teams. Second straight roady for Northern Illinois, and I’ll be honest, despite my CMU #4 and Northern Illinois #5 pre-season rankings, I’d probably lay –3 on any team in college football w/ Northern Illinois coming in given the current angles…
3* Central Michigan –2.5September 29, 2007
California at Oregon
Selection: California +4.5
Having my pre-season #3 getting points (more than a FG) on the road against my pre-season #6 is something I will look for value in. Cal has faced three no huddle spread offenses thus far, giving them a bit of preparation for the upcoming week, and while Cal has a few injuries on it’s defense, this is going to be a shootout and in a rivalry game, I’ll gladly take the points…
1* California +4.5September 29, 2007
UTEP at SMU
Selection: SMU PK
I like this game quite a bit. My pre-season #3 (SMU) and #4 (UTEP). UTEP just hasn’t been all that great on the road in recent years, while SMU has been pretty consistent at home as well. A revenge game here, as both teams played to a 3 point ballgame last year with SMU falling short in the 4th quarter as 13 point dogs. I’ll gladly take a PK w/ what I think is the better team in this match up.
2* SMU PKSeptember 29, 2007
Western Michigan at Toledo
Selection: Western Michigan PK
Another game, just pick the winner. Western Michigan won last year outright as 10.5 dogs. I have Western Michigan at #1 in their half of the MAC, and Toledo at #3 in that same half. Having said that I have WMU at #1 pre-season, the MAC has taken a different approach to conference records this year. Only games within your half of the conference count towards your divisional record, so this makes it even more important here. Western Michigan knows the importance here. They have Toledo, NIU, and EMU on the road. A win here would almost lock up their half of the conference in my opinion. Sure, WMU hasn’t won at Toledo since 1988, but WMU has the offensive targets that can control the game. While WMU and Toledo have both played tough competition entering this match up, the fatigue should start to take its toll on Toledo here. They’ll see another barrage of passes I believe, and Toledo just doesn’t have the defense to stop it. Coming off of a week (that probably included some extra preparation for Toledo), WMU will be ready to compete after beating Central Connecticut State, resting it’s starters, and having a few key pieces to the puzzle return off of injury. I’ll take the better squad…
2* Western Michigan PK -115September 29, 2007
Kent State at Ohio
Selection: Ohio –2
Without looking too much in-depth, I have Ohio at #2 pre-season and Kent State at #6. This is a Kent State team w/ a great QB, he just doesn’t have the talent around him to make him better. Their defense is marginal at best, and they are coming off of a game which everyone labeled as a “must-win” for them. How do they bounce back here? This is Ohio’s conference opener, after battling Wyoming and Virginia Tech the past two weeks. When I looked at pre-season to now, Ohio’s defense has been good as expected, but they just aren’t getting the #’s I thought they would out of the backfield. However, having faced Wyoming and Virginia Tech, those #’s are probably a bit twisted. McRae should keep the Kent State defense on the field, and while this game will probably come down to the team who makes the fewest mistakes, I have to side with Ohio in their home opener and the better defensive squad (six fumble recoveries, seven interceptions, fourteen sacks)…
1* Ohio -2
That is conference action wrapped up. Write-ups are a little short, as I leave for the week on Tuesday for business.
I have a little interest in these games:
Air Force +
Miami OH +
Pitt +
Georgia Tech ML and +
Washington +
But, what you see is probably it. Only other game in conference consideration is Penn State –3 (#3 vs. #8), but you know me and Champaign will be rocking. I – L – L.
Some notes and pre-season rankings:
West Virginia #6, Miami Florida #2
North Carolina #5, Virginia Tech #1
Indiana #10, Iowa #5
Northern Illinois #5, CMU #4
Cal #3, Oregon #6
PSU #3, Illinois #8
MSU #9, Wisky #2
Iowa State #6, Nebraska #1
UTEP #4, SMU #3
Colorado State #6, TCU #1
WMU #1, Toledo #3
Kent #6, Ohio #2
BYU #2, New Mexico #3
Washington State #8, Arizona #7
ASU #5, Stanford #10
Louisiana Tech #7, Fresno #4
Final Card:
3* Central Michigan –2.5
2* SMU PK
2* Western Michigan PK (-115)
1* Ohio –2
1* California +4.5
Will update any adds, but this is probably it.
Gl…
I have a little interest in these games:
Air Force +
Miami OH +
Pitt +
Georgia Tech ML and +
Washington +
But, what you see is probably it. Only other game in conference consideration is Penn State –3 (#3 vs. #8), but you know me and Champaign will be rocking. I – L – L.
Some notes and pre-season rankings:
West Virginia #6, Miami Florida #2
North Carolina #5, Virginia Tech #1
Indiana #10, Iowa #5
Northern Illinois #5, CMU #4
Cal #3, Oregon #6
PSU #3, Illinois #8
MSU #9, Wisky #2
Iowa State #6, Nebraska #1
UTEP #4, SMU #3
Colorado State #6, TCU #1
WMU #1, Toledo #3
Kent #6, Ohio #2
BYU #2, New Mexico #3
Washington State #8, Arizona #7
ASU #5, Stanford #10
Louisiana Tech #7, Fresno #4
Final Card:
3* Central Michigan –2.5
2* SMU PK
2* Western Michigan PK (-115)
1* Ohio –2
1* California +4.5
Will update any adds, but this is probably it.
Gl…
thats scary, I haven't looked over any games yet, just looked at the lines and the first 2 that stuck out were CMU and Cal. That Miami(oh) line was a looker too. I haven't downloaded the stats from last week into my systems yet, so we'll see.
Nice week again, GL this week
thats scary, I haven't looked over any games yet, just looked at the lines and the first 2 that stuck out were CMU and Cal. That Miami(oh) line was a looker too. I haven't downloaded the stats from last week into my systems yet, so we'll see.
Nice week again, GL this week
I think that line will move to Cal -6 before kickoff...
about the only way the cal game goes to -6 in favor of Cal is if Oregon gets food poisoning the day of the game.
||an_roll_laugh.gif' border=0>
I think that line will move to Cal -6 before kickoff...
about the only way the cal game goes to -6 in favor of Cal is if Oregon gets food poisoning the day of the game.
||an_roll_laugh.gif' border=0>
Awesome stuff as usual. Nice job last week. Thanks for the drunk post in NFL. If you can, gimme as much insight as possible on WVU @ USF. I am (and was before the year) as high on this South Florida squad and couldn't believe I just saw +7.5. I know it's big time revenge for WV, and I know Vegas just wants to split action and WV is a public squad. But holy shit I thought this would be around pick or AT MOST West Virginia -3.
Awesome stuff as usual. Nice job last week. Thanks for the drunk post in NFL. If you can, gimme as much insight as possible on WVU @ USF. I am (and was before the year) as high on this South Florida squad and couldn't believe I just saw +7.5. I know it's big time revenge for WV, and I know Vegas just wants to split action and WV is a public squad. But holy shit I thought this would be around pick or AT MOST West Virginia -3.
Awesome stuff as usual. Nice job last week. Thanks for the drunk post in NFL. If you can, gimme as much insight as possible on WVU @ USF. I am (and was before the year) as high on this South Florida squad and couldn't believe I just saw +7.5. I know it's big time revenge for WV, and I know Vegas just wants to split action and WV is a public squad. But holy shit I thought this would be around pick or AT MOST West Virginia -3.
LOL on attempt #3. Haha.
My honest take on this game is this. Probably one of the fastest defensive squads in the country vs. one of the fastest offensive squads, if not both being fastest on their own respective side of the ball. The game last year was a pretty big lookahead spot for West Virginia. White was not 100% if i recall, either. This game is a friggin coinflip at this line. The place will be packed, probably the biggest game to date in South Florida history. To be honest, I saw a bit of this SF team play against Auburn, and noticed the overall team speed, but Auburn is not who everyone thought they were. That upset probably wasn't as big as everyone thought. Since last year's WVU victory, they've beaten East Carolina, Elon, Auburn, and North Carolina. Not exactly the cream of the crop. But, WVU hasn't played all that great of competition either.
I'd rather sit back, drink a few brewski's and watch this one. Although I'd like to see a total. One would think with the coverage this is going to get being on national tv on a friday night, the public would hit the over, adding a few extra points. I can see SF keeping the WVU offense off the field by managing the clock, and if this SF defense is as good as they're made out to be, they should be able to contain WVU and run the clock that way as well.
I'd keep an eye on the forecast, storms and rain all week, which in itself, takes speed away from that SF defense.
Don't know too much about it, but this is one I'll be on the sidelines for.
Gl...
Awesome stuff as usual. Nice job last week. Thanks for the drunk post in NFL. If you can, gimme as much insight as possible on WVU @ USF. I am (and was before the year) as high on this South Florida squad and couldn't believe I just saw +7.5. I know it's big time revenge for WV, and I know Vegas just wants to split action and WV is a public squad. But holy shit I thought this would be around pick or AT MOST West Virginia -3.
LOL on attempt #3. Haha.
My honest take on this game is this. Probably one of the fastest defensive squads in the country vs. one of the fastest offensive squads, if not both being fastest on their own respective side of the ball. The game last year was a pretty big lookahead spot for West Virginia. White was not 100% if i recall, either. This game is a friggin coinflip at this line. The place will be packed, probably the biggest game to date in South Florida history. To be honest, I saw a bit of this SF team play against Auburn, and noticed the overall team speed, but Auburn is not who everyone thought they were. That upset probably wasn't as big as everyone thought. Since last year's WVU victory, they've beaten East Carolina, Elon, Auburn, and North Carolina. Not exactly the cream of the crop. But, WVU hasn't played all that great of competition either.
I'd rather sit back, drink a few brewski's and watch this one. Although I'd like to see a total. One would think with the coverage this is going to get being on national tv on a friday night, the public would hit the over, adding a few extra points. I can see SF keeping the WVU offense off the field by managing the clock, and if this SF defense is as good as they're made out to be, they should be able to contain WVU and run the clock that way as well.
I'd keep an eye on the forecast, storms and rain all week, which in itself, takes speed away from that SF defense.
Don't know too much about it, but this is one I'll be on the sidelines for.
Gl...
Ducks win big!!
Cal hasn't looked dominate since the Tenn game, while the Ducks have dominated everyone they played so far.
Ducks win big easy cover!!!||cool.gif' border=0>
Ducks win big!!
Cal hasn't looked dominate since the Tenn game, while the Ducks have dominated everyone they played so far.
Ducks win big easy cover!!!||cool.gif' border=0>
Ducks win big!!
Cal hasn't looked dominate since the Tenn game, while the Ducks have dominated everyone they played so far.
Ducks win big easy cover!!!
They haven't faced an offense close to the talent as this one. I explained the play, based on value. I thought Cal was the better team coming into the year, and I think Oregon has over-exceeded all expectations thus far.
GL
Ducks win big!!
Cal hasn't looked dominate since the Tenn game, while the Ducks have dominated everyone they played so far.
Ducks win big easy cover!!!
They haven't faced an offense close to the talent as this one. I explained the play, based on value. I thought Cal was the better team coming into the year, and I think Oregon has over-exceeded all expectations thus far.
GL
nropp,you seem to like miami,oh every week!! haha,Im just giving you a hard time bro,keep up the good work. Ive been winning with you!
LOL - if you paid any attention to college basketball last year, this Miami OH team is similar to SEMO who i was on just about every game, lol.
I still think they win their half of the MAC, and the good thing is, their lines will have tons of value come MAC play. They've played Colorado, Cincy, Ball State, and Minnesota thus far. This offense is better than it's shown, and this defense held Ball State's offense to 13 points on the road. They get Akron & Bowling Green at home, while the conference will more than likely be won/lost the last game of the year at Ohio in a rivalry game where they'll probably catch a +6 to win the conference.
nropp,you seem to like miami,oh every week!! haha,Im just giving you a hard time bro,keep up the good work. Ive been winning with you!
LOL - if you paid any attention to college basketball last year, this Miami OH team is similar to SEMO who i was on just about every game, lol.
I still think they win their half of the MAC, and the good thing is, their lines will have tons of value come MAC play. They've played Colorado, Cincy, Ball State, and Minnesota thus far. This offense is better than it's shown, and this defense held Ball State's offense to 13 points on the road. They get Akron & Bowling Green at home, while the conference will more than likely be won/lost the last game of the year at Ohio in a rivalry game where they'll probably catch a +6 to win the conference.
Michigan put up 300 yards in the first half in the big house...No reason why Cal can't do that and actually finish some drives.
I won't be touching this game because I dont think Cal can stop Oregon either. If the over is under 70 that would probably be a nice play.
Michigan put up 300 yards in the first half in the big house...No reason why Cal can't do that and actually finish some drives.
I won't be touching this game because I dont think Cal can stop Oregon either. If the over is under 70 that would probably be a nice play.
Neil - Have you looked at Cinci @ SDSU? Im leaning towards SDSU +14.5. Its the first time the Bearcats have been in the Top 25 in 50 years and I think they have a letdown. ||thumbs_up.gif' border=0>
Neil - Have you looked at Cinci @ SDSU? Im leaning towards SDSU +14.5. Its the first time the Bearcats have been in the Top 25 in 50 years and I think they have a letdown. ||thumbs_up.gif' border=0>
Neil - Have you looked at Cinci @ SDSU? Im leaning towards SDSU +14.5. Its the first time the Bearcats have been in the Top 25 in 50 years and I think they have a letdown.
Letdown is possible. They have Rutgers next week as well. Tough Game, Cincy's team speed is a lot better than people think, especially on defense. They've given up two bad drives this year, and that's it. Opponents have scored 3 td's on them, and one was due to a turnover deep in their own territory. SDST's defense is nothing to brag about, and Cincy's won their games by an average of 38ppg. Letdown factor is nice, but I think i'd need more than the current 13.5. However, the 14.5 is probably a good #.
GL
Neil - Have you looked at Cinci @ SDSU? Im leaning towards SDSU +14.5. Its the first time the Bearcats have been in the Top 25 in 50 years and I think they have a letdown.
Letdown is possible. They have Rutgers next week as well. Tough Game, Cincy's team speed is a lot better than people think, especially on defense. They've given up two bad drives this year, and that's it. Opponents have scored 3 td's on them, and one was due to a turnover deep in their own territory. SDST's defense is nothing to brag about, and Cincy's won their games by an average of 38ppg. Letdown factor is nice, but I think i'd need more than the current 13.5. However, the 14.5 is probably a good #.
GL
What do you make of that Ohio line moving from -2 to now Bobcats +1??? Linky
Looks like Ohio's banged up. I'm not buying it. I've done made my decision. If it's a wrong one, it's only .004% of my bankroll for the season.
Thanks for the heads up.
What do you make of that Ohio line moving from -2 to now Bobcats +1??? Linky
Looks like Ohio's banged up. I'm not buying it. I've done made my decision. If it's a wrong one, it's only .004% of my bankroll for the season.
Thanks for the heads up.
I like how people only brought up the negatives about the Ducks. How bout this Ducks are covering there games against lower teams and Cal hasn't. It is that simple Cal right now does not look like the better team and they need a miracle to get a stop on Def to keep the Ducks from scoring on almost every drive on them.
Look what Tenn offense did to Cal and since then Tenn has struggled with teams like SMU. Ducks will win by 14+ points. ||cool.gif' border=0>
I like how people only brought up the negatives about the Ducks. How bout this Ducks are covering there games against lower teams and Cal hasn't. It is that simple Cal right now does not look like the better team and they need a miracle to get a stop on Def to keep the Ducks from scoring on almost every drive on them.
Look what Tenn offense did to Cal and since then Tenn has struggled with teams like SMU. Ducks will win by 14+ points. ||cool.gif' border=0>
noles,
i explained my stance. I go off of my Pac-10 preseason rankings:
Cal #3
Oregon #6
I go off certain angles. Cal has faced similar offenses this year. You think Oregon is going to keep winning ATS for the year? If anything, that adds more value to my play. If I were to base a play off of your "this team beat this team and that team beat those teams" I obviously would have NOT bet Michigan last week, nor would I have put any money on San Jose, let alone make it my top play.
I've simply stated my reasons. I'll take my chances, for again, .4% of my bankroll on this play. It's a marathon, not a sprint. If I play value time and time again, I don't expect to win all, but I expect to be ahead at the end of the year.
GL, and go ducks, lol.
noles,
i explained my stance. I go off of my Pac-10 preseason rankings:
Cal #3
Oregon #6
I go off certain angles. Cal has faced similar offenses this year. You think Oregon is going to keep winning ATS for the year? If anything, that adds more value to my play. If I were to base a play off of your "this team beat this team and that team beat those teams" I obviously would have NOT bet Michigan last week, nor would I have put any money on San Jose, let alone make it my top play.
I've simply stated my reasons. I'll take my chances, for again, .4% of my bankroll on this play. It's a marathon, not a sprint. If I play value time and time again, I don't expect to win all, but I expect to be ahead at the end of the year.
GL, and go ducks, lol.
noles,
i explained my stance. I go off of my Pac-10 preseason rankings:
Cal #3
Oregon #6
I go off certain angles. Cal has faced similar offenses this year. You think Oregon is going to keep winning ATS for the year? If anything, that adds more value to my play. If I were to base a play off of your "this team beat this team and that team beat those teams" I obviously would have NOT bet Michigan last week, nor would I have put any money on San Jose, let alone make it my top play.
I've simply stated my reasons. I'll take my chances, for again, .4% of my bankroll on this play. It's a marathon, not a sprint. If I play value time and time again, I don't expect to win all, but I expect to be ahead at the end of the year.
GL, and go ducks, lol.
noles,
i explained my stance. I go off of my Pac-10 preseason rankings:
Cal #3
Oregon #6
I go off certain angles. Cal has faced similar offenses this year. You think Oregon is going to keep winning ATS for the year? If anything, that adds more value to my play. If I were to base a play off of your "this team beat this team and that team beat those teams" I obviously would have NOT bet Michigan last week, nor would I have put any money on San Jose, let alone make it my top play.
I've simply stated my reasons. I'll take my chances, for again, .4% of my bankroll on this play. It's a marathon, not a sprint. If I play value time and time again, I don't expect to win all, but I expect to be ahead at the end of the year.
GL, and go ducks, lol.
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