I went 5-1 yesterday.
DET (-140) 
NYY (+123) 
SD (-119)
TOR/TEX (U10)
STL/MIA (O7.5)
KC/TB (O8)
Who was my loss? NYY as expected. Why do I continue to bet on BOS/NYY? My winning % in “BOS/NYY to win” games is worse than my O/U record (which amazingly went 3-3 yesterday; go figure). I have 3 DOGS for today. The first pick may shock you. 
Good:
CHC (+116)
Aside from Feldman’s 2 starts vs. CIN, he has a 2.35 ERA and 1.14 WHIP this season. Feldman pitched vs. CIN twice this season. In his first match-up, he allowed 5 ER’s on 7 H in 5.1 IP. In his second match-up, he allowed 5 ER’s on 7 H in 6 IP. So at the very least, Feldman is very reliable. Feldman faced NYM earlier this year and 0 ER’s on 7 H in 6.2 IP. Niese is 2-3 in 6 career starts vs. CHC with a 5.61 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, and .333 BAA.
Bad: Fading Lackey (BOS)
BAL (+102)
Lackey’s 3 AWAY starts vs. DIV opponents have resulted in a 6.91 ERA and 1.88 WHIP. Garcia’s last 3 HOME starts have resulted in a 1.80 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. BAL pitching has already held BOS scoreless for 15 consecutive innings.
Ugly: Fading Cobb (TB)
KC (+158)
Cobb just allowed 6 runs in the 1st inning of his last start. Big innings seem to be the crutch for TB this early in the season. Cobb had a 6.35 ERA and .370 BAA in his earlier start vs. KC. Fluke? Well, in Cobb’s 3 career starts vs. KC, he has a 1-2 record, 5.35 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and .337 BAA. There are 6 KC batters who are batting at least .300 vs. Cobb: Cain (.333), Escobar (.500), Gordon (.300), Hosmer (.400), Moustakas (.300), and Perez (.429). Aside from Guthrie’s 3-game implosion last month (May 14-25), he has a 1.35 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in his last 6 starts. I am even leaning on the reverse RL for this one. When a team’s hot, they are hot.
“Trouble With the Curve” O/U:
ARI/SD O8
This line has to be a joke. Both pitchers combine for a 12.89 ERA. The OVER 8 total is 7-2-1 in Richard’s last 10 starts and 7-3 in Miley’s last 10 starts. Their earlier match-up this year @ SD was a SD 7-6 W. How is this line not 10.5??
Hot Forum Topics
