Money Ball 6.06

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101568922

If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.

MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI

MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI 

MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units

6.05.2013, 0-0-1, +/- 0 Units, +/- 0% ROI

YTD – 123-126-25, +59.06 Units, +4.79% ROI

5 & 9 Innings – ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays

All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted

Today’s comment: The usual number of surprises yesterday, but I think a tip of the cap is due Iwakuma of the Mariners. He recorded his 12^th above average, or “quality start”, in my system, in 13 attempts, and after exiting the game after 8 shutout innings had to stand by and not only take a no decision but watch his team lose after another 8 competitive innings. Over bettors must believe in the unreal happening yesterday as there is no way you can figure a 13 inning scoreless game going over. I only remember one similar thing happening to me in the last 40 years or so. I once had an NBA game bet under and the darn thing went three overtimes and still went under. You lays your bets, you pays the price, as a man once said in a song. I can’t remember the game, teams, total number, or the singer of the song, but it all really happened.  

Speculation: The Arizona Diamondbacks will make Wade Miley available for a left handed power hitter and run away with the N.L. West.

Astros F5 (+125) FG (+132) (Gonzalez / Norris)

Just because the Astros won yesterday does not mean they go back to losing almost every game the next ten. To understand how well they have played the last ten is to understand how much better their prospectus is now, as opposed to then. My only regret here is that I had a chance to pull the trigger earlier, when the bonus was greater, but I had to go out and thought that by waiting the line would continue to rise. Foolish me. The public loves the Orioles, the money likes the Astros.

Rangers F5 (+115) FG (+117) (Holland / Lester)

I can’t exactly blame the Rangers for winning last night but I was hoping they would (nothing personal) just to make this play a little stronger. Holland is one of the few chuckers maybe still flying just a little under the radar. In my version of quality start ratings he comes in at 10-1 and that must be at least close to accurate as the team is 9-2 in his starts. Lester is a mainstay for the BoSox of course and they are 8-4 in his starts, but I have him 7-5 in the quality start ratings and with the mathematical advantage of 72 / 68.9 I have to lean that way. I also give the Rangers an offensive edge in a lefty-lefty matchup and have to roll with it.

Phillies F5 (+122) FG (+125) (Cloyd / Peralta)

Good old public perception of home field advantage is the only way a poorly hitting team with a very poor pitcher starting winds up as a money line favorite. The combination of Wily Peralta and the Brewers current offense literally should not be favored over any MLB opponent, home, away, or on the moon, but the folks insist on it so the linemakers suggest it to the bookmakers and there you have it. The Phillies are actually showing signs of having a pulse and will make a game of it, maybe a series.

BOL

Post #4, at least until the mods nail him

What a cool idea. Admit you can't beat the game and sell a fader-service. Most of the guys have more famous services they like to fade but at least you admit it is the right strategy for your picks. However; if folks can sort through the B.S. on the Covers forums and find the few that actually win, for free, why do they need either type of service?

The mods caught up with the prior #4 and whacked the spammer. Post #5 was not intended for bookiekilla, the current #4.

Quote Originally Posted by bookiekilla:

Key, just letting you know that I jumped on HOU F5 and FG at the last minute.  Hope I don't jinx you, if you even believe in that stuff. 

GO ASTROS! 

JEG, you are STILL an incorrigible namedropper  

TheRickterScale, no, yes, Mets SU,

why ask about Milwaukee, I am already on the Phillies?