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#1
YTD: 158-190-6 (-25.472 units)
Sides: 112-124 (-11.55 units)
Run Line: 11-15 (-3.07 units)
Totals: 34-39-6 (-8.67 units)
Parlays: 2-11 (-3.827 units)
*Pending Dodgers -1.5
THURSDAY
I don't do this often, but we have a play of the year for Thursday. I will begin doing this more often.
TOP Play: 3 units
Strong Play: 2 units
Regular Play: 1 unit
Athletics -128 (3 units)
The A's are the hottest team in baseball. They hit .260 and average 4.96 runs per game against lefty starters. In their last meeting against Quintana, they put up 10 hits in 5.1 innings but only 3 runs. I expect that to change this time around while the bats are scorching. The White Sox just finished up a 16 inning win where starter Dylan Axelrod lasted a mere 5.1 innings. Addison Reed was forced to pitch 3 innings. Their bullpen is taxed. Now they have to fly from Seattle after that wild win back to Chicago to face the hottest team in MLB. This is a perfect spot for a 3 unit play.
Mets +176 (1 unit)
The Nationals are struggling right now, going 6-12 in their last 18 games. In their last six games, they have put up 1, 3, 3, 1, 3, and 0 runs. To win this game, they likely need an absolute gem performance from Gio Gonzalez. In my mind, he has been too inconsistent this season to lay -186 against a division rival. Shaun Marcum has shown flashes this season and I think he turns in a good start against the struggling Nats.
Rockies -148 (1 unit)
The Rockies smacked around Cashner in their only meeting in Petco and Chacin owns the Padres. The Rockies have won their last six against the Padres. Cashner is not the same pitcher on the road.
Rays +170 (1 unit)
The Rays are on an 18-8 run right now and they just continue to find ways to win games. Roberto Hernandez is their worst starter and Max Scherzer is a stud. However, the Tigers aren't playing their best ball right now and the Rays are. This is purely a value play based on the over-emphasis on pitching matchup (leading to a high line) with a lack of attention paid to how good the Rays are playing right now. I'll take a shot.
Dodgers -105 (1 unit)
I believe Greinke will start pitching like an ace, especially at Dodger Stadium. Tim Hudson has struggled this season and I like the cheap price I'm getting here. The Dodgers and Braves have the same home and road records, as the Braves are like Jekyl and Hyde at home compared to the road.
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