May 14 Mariners at New York

Question

At first glance, going under whatever total is set seems like the play tonight . . . every one is talking about this matchup (at least those in Seattle). I have written many times how Felix is a "big stage" pitcher, and I still believe that to be true. However, I think his run ends tonight.

In general, I don't back propositions that I think are "due", but in this case, I will be rewarded handsomely for doing so.

I won't pull the trigger yet, I will at least look for reasons to think this is a stupid play. But right now, NYY RL at +178 and NYY Alt RL at +290 are very tempting.

3825 · Answer

At first glance, going under whatever total is set seems like the play tonight . . . every one is talking about this matchup (at least those in Seattle). I have written many times how Felix is a "big stage" pitcher, and I still believe that to be true. However, I think his run ends tonight.

In general, I don't back propositions that I think are "due", but in this case, I will be rewarded handsomely for doing so.

I won't pull the trigger yet, I will at least look for reasons to think this is a stupid play. But right now, NYY RL at +178 and NYY Alt RL at +290 are very tempting.

3825 · Answer

Mariners LineupCF  SaundersLF  Bay3B  Seager1B  MoralesRF  MorseC    ShoppachDH  Ibanez2B  AndinoSS  RyanThis lineup is one of the reasons i lean towards an easy win for NYY tonight.Ibanez:  .200 avg vs LHP last 3 seasonAndino:  .159 avg this seasonRyan:      .122 avg this season

Never_Say_Lock · Answer

So just run with U3.5 F5 and call it a day.

tkf18ny · Answer

felix has done nothing but dump on the yankees for years

3825 · Answer

2 of his 7 career starts have been horrid
5 of his 7 career starts have been brilliant

Felix's has been nearly untouchable over his last 5 starts, this is not lost on me.

This game feels like a pitchers duel, but i think it goes the other way, and which offense is most likely to take advantage?

SportsFreak69 · Answer

Best of Luck

KBrick84 · Answer

We&#x27;ve discussed M&#x27;s in the past 3825, and being in Seattle any type of win streak gets our hopes up here.  But it cant be denied that Felix simply owns the Yanks in NY.  And I&#x27;m not sure I&#x27;d bet against that.&#xD;&#xA;The guys you mentioned, Ryan...Andino...are simply buying time till Franklin comes up.  That being said, as bad as those 2 are at the plate...they can run into some accidental hits against a guy like CC

Getty3 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by KBrick84]  We&#x27;ve discussed M&#x27;s in the past 3825, and being in Seattle any type of win streak gets our hopes up here.  But it cant be denied that Felix simply owns the Yanks in NY.  And I&#x27;m not sure I&#x27;d bet against that.&#xD;&#xA;The guys you mentioned, Ryan...Andino...are simply buying time till Franklin comes up.  That being said, as bad as those 2 are at the plate...they can run into some accidental hits against a guy like CC  [/Quote]Ryan is 4-10 lifetime vs. CC with 3 walks and only 2 K&#x27;s.

Triceratops · Answer

not to mention the players you named are their 7,8, 9 hitters.  Can you find me a matchup today with the 7,8,9 hitters with good numbers vs the pitcher?

tkf18ny · Answer

I&#x27;m on the under so obviously I completely disagree with you on it not being a pitcher&#x27;s duel.Given your parameters of it not being a pitcher&#x27;s duel the Yankees lineup is better than Seatles, but Hernandez is a much better pitcher than CC  so that can go either way. I mean if you told me it would be 5-5 in the 5th and both pitchers would be out of the game the edge would definitly go to the Yankees but I don&#x27;t see that happening. Gl with your bet, if you do win I hope it&#x27;s no more than 6-0 yankees.

papsmear · Answer

It would be a ballsy bet to take the runline against felix. I agree with some of your logic. But I think the thing that would scare me the most about that bet is the fact that the Yankees had an extremely successful road trip. Teams tend to come out flat after getting home from a successful road trip. That and trying to get multiple runs against one of the hottest pitchers this season who historically pitches well against the yankees is asking for alot. Hence the handsome reward.

tkf18ny · Answer

it&#x27;s not just that he&#x27;s hot- at worst he&#x27;s the second best pitcher in the league,completely dominant, loves pitching in ny and goes deep into games.

ilovethathook · Answer

CC has not looked dominant this year. yankees also just played a doubleheader yesterday... i like the M&#x27;s

3825 · Answer

Yankees LineupCF  Gardner2B  CanoDH  WellsLF  Granderson1B  OverbaySS  NixRF  Ichiro3B  NelsonC   Romine

KBrick84 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by Getty3] &#xD;&#xA;Ryan is 4-10 lifetime vs. CC with 3 walks and only 2 K&#x27;s.&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote&#xD;&#xA;Exactly, Ryan &amp; Andino are simply not good hitters...but they are just poor enough to run into an opposite field flare or some garbage.

3825 · Answer

Do any of you Mariners fans find it ironic that all three "players of the future" are not in the lineup tonight. This figures to be a huge game for the organization . . . their ace on the mound, facing a first place team with their ace and it's on the road. Unless there are injuries that I'm not aware of, Wedge is clearly telling everyone that he likes his chances with Ibanez, Shoppach, and Andino instead of Montero, Smoak, and Ackley.

KBrick84 · Answer

I think Montero, Smoak &amp; Ackley think too much when at the plate...and that isn&#x27;t smart against someone like CC.

cjm2008 · Answer

CC and King Felix will balance out. I like the Yanks offense at home in this one.GL

3825 · Answer

Agreed entirely . . . maybe the Mariners should draft/trade for smarter players in the future.

VegasVandal · Answer

Any chance you can talk to Raiders management about this for me?

KBrick84 · Answer

I think UN 7 is the safest play.  If these pitchers are vulnerable at all, it will be early on.  M&#x27;s are basically throwing out 4 free outs each time through the lineup with our 6-9 hitters.

KBrick84 · Answer

&#xD;&#xA;As I&#x27;ve said in the past.  Ackley just needs to go back to being aggressive early in the count when he&#x27;s getting hittable pitches.  Ryan wont be around much longer...as I expect Franklin to be called up sometime soon.  The excuse for Ryan has always been we&#x27;ll accept whatever he hits, because his defense is so damn good.  Although I agree he&#x27;s a defensive stud...he simpply can&#x27;t hit...and therefor can&#x27;t be counted on with RISP which is where the M&#x27;s struggle.  I&#x27;m tired of watching it, as I&#x27;m sure others are.  Same with Smoak, at this point Zunino can&#x27;t be any worse...and expect him to get called up as well.  Andino will stick around simply cause he&#x27;s a decent utility man.

3825 · Answer

I&#x27;ve been watching Felix since his first season in 2005, I&#x27;ve always been caught off-guard when he goes from "good felix" to "average/bad felix" . . . i have never been on the right side of that transition.Felix has been nails for 5 straight starts, it is very tough to string together 6 good ones.  In tonight&#x27;s game, i get the low prices with a superior team and quality pitcher, and I get the game on the road.I wouldn&#x27;t be shocked at all to see Felix turn in another great outing tonight, but I think his run comes to an end tonight.

larnoohs · Answer

How the 6-9 Seattle hitters fared vs CC lifetime ...

Shoppach - 0.258 with 2 HRs in 31 ABs

Ibanez - 0.286 with 2 HRs in 42 ABs

Andino - 0.348 with 1 HR in 23 ABs

Ryan - 0.400 in 10 ABs

May 14 Mariners at New York

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