St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 +105 (Lynn) vs. New York Mets (Hefner)
The Cardinals have the edge in
just about every category in this one.
Lynn has allowed just three earned runs in 20 innings at home this
season. The Cardinals are 5-2 when he takes the ball with those two losses
coming on the road. I am not a fan of the run line with a home team where they
do not swing it in the bottom of the 9th if ahead but I like the
Cardinals getting to Hefner early and often in this one. Hefner has been
touched for 9 earned in 12 road innings this season. The Mets are 0-7 when he
throws a pitch. The only thing that would worry me in this one is if Lynn gives
the ball to the bullpen with just a two run lead. The Cardinals bullpen ranks
second to last in all of baseball with a 5.28 era.
1u to win 1.05u
Minnesota Twins +101 (Hernandez) vs. Chicago White Sox (Santiago)
I know most cringe when they see the 5.96 era next to Hernandez’s name but he has actually been very respectable at home this season, allowing just one earned run in 10 1/3 innings. The White Sox have one of the league’s worst offenses. Their team average of .227 is second to only the Miami Marlins. Their on base percentage of .280 is good for last in the league. Minnesota’s team average of .248 does not leap off the page at me but I do value them more tonight at home as an underdog. Factor in the liking of armyhog as well and this is a sure lock for me.
1u to win 1.01u
Washington Nationals -125 (Zimmerman) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Beckett)
With a pitching advantage this lopsided at such a cheap price, this one is tough not to be on. Josh Beckett will continue to be an auto fade for the entire season. The Dodgers are 1-6 when he takes the ball. He has been touched for 13 earned runs in 21 1/3 innings at home this season. Should he pitch well through 6 innings, he’ll have to hand the ball over to a Dodgers bullpen with an era of 4.65, good for 27th in the majors. Zimmerman has allowed just 5 earned in 22 road innings this season. His last road start saw him go 8 innings allowing just 2 hits and striking out 8 while walking none in Atlanta. He followed that with his most recent start vs. the Tigers, holding MLB’s most proficient offense to just 1 run over 7 innings. Statistically these offenses are about the same vs. right handed pitching. Today I like the Washington’s offense vs. Beckett more.
1.25u to win 1u
Best of luck to all
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