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Money Ball 5.07.2013

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https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101568922

If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.

 

MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI

MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI 

MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units

5.06.2013, 1-0, +4.55 Units, +90.91% ROI

YTD – 80-82-13, +20.49 Units, +2.57% ROI

5 & 9 Innings – ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays

All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted

If killamurphy1212 sneaks in under a new username someone remind him he owes me an apology for calling me a “donkey”. I really don’t expect him though; bashers like that never have the gonads to man up and apologize for anything. Hope he faded me like I invited him to, that would make my day.

Tigers F5 RL (-.5 +130) FG RL (-1.5 +155) (Sanchez / Zimmermann)

If the Tigers win the World Series both the sportswriters and fans will lavish their love and admiration and hero worship on Verlander, Cabrera and Fielder, but: If they do in fact even get there it will be thanks to guys named Fister, Scherzer and Sanchez. There is so much love thrown at Verlander most folks don’t realize how good the overall starting staff really is. Tonight Sanchez is the better chucker in this matchup and has a far better offense behind him even though he himself has to hit.

Astros F5 (+160) FG (+165) (Wilson / Lyles)

Isn’t it about time the Angels proved they are the better team, as opposed to folks just reading the names on the roster and expecting the other team to fold like a cheap t-shirt? Wilson is a huge disappointment and no one wonders anymore why Nolan Ryan made no effort to hold him. We can safely assume Nolan Ryan knows a little something about major league pitching and pitchers can’t we? If Lyles holds his own against Wilson, the generic, no-name, we-have-no-stars offense of the Astros might just come through for him.  

BOL

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #2
TIGERS WILL PROB GET RAINED OUT ALL DAY TODAY
 
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Posted: #3
Good luck Key!
 
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Kill is just trying to get under ur skin Key. He most likely tailed! GL Today!
 
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BOL
 
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GL today Key
 
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Posted: #10
Key,

Always look forward to your insights daily. Thanks for posting.

Regarding the Tigers selection, I will not argue who has the better offensive team but the starting pitchers are a different matter. Zimmerman is one of the best pitchers in baseball. He is certainly the best (at this point) on his own team. His record this year is amazing not to mention what his last 3 starts have shown. Below are the comparative stats to date:

Overall W-L Tm W-L IP H WHIP ERA AF AA OU
Anibal Sanchez (R)
Jordan Zimmermann (R)		 3-2
5-1		 3-3
5-1		 39.2
44.0		 31
26		 1.06
0.75		 1.82
1.64		 5.3
4.0		 3.5
1.3		 4-2
1-4
Last 3 W-L Tm W-L IP H WHIP ERA AF AA OU
Anibal Sanchez (R)
Jordan Zimmermann (R)		 1-2
2-1		 1-2
2-1		 20.2
22.0		 21
5		 1.16
0.41		 2.18
0.82		 4.3
1.0		 4.7
0.7		 2-1
0-3

While Detroit is probably the play because of their offense, it is difficult to go against a pitcher (at home +money) who is on such an amazing run. Holding Cincy to one hit, and beating ATL on the road is pretty impressive. Nice whip for his last 22 innings. Nats seem to play with more confidence with him on the bump. Should be a very interesting series.

Good Luck.
 
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Luckydan: Thanx but I don't need that info. Save yourself the trouble. Your money, your choice.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #13
bol!
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by Luckydan:

Key,

Always look forward to your insights daily. Thanks for posting.

Regarding the Tigers selection, I will not argue who has the better offensive team but the starting pitchers are a different matter. Zimmerman is one of the best pitchers in baseball. He is certainly the best (at this point) on his own team. His record this year is amazing not to mention what his last 3 starts have shown. Below are the comparative stats to date:

Overall W-L Tm W-L IP H WHIP ERA AF AA OU
Anibal Sanchez (R)
Jordan Zimmermann (R)		 3-2
5-1		 3-3
5-1		 39.2
44.0		 31
26		 1.06
0.75		 1.82
1.64		 5.3
4.0		 3.5
1.3		 4-2
1-4
Last 3 W-L Tm W-L IP H WHIP ERA AF AA OU
Anibal Sanchez (R)
Jordan Zimmermann (R)		 1-2
2-1		 1-2
2-1		 20.2
22.0		 21
5		 1.16
0.41		 2.18
0.82		 4.3
1.0		 4.7
0.7		 2-1
0-3

While Detroit is probably the play because of their offense, it is difficult to go against a pitcher (at home +money) who is on such an amazing run. Holding Cincy to one hit, and beating ATL on the road is pretty impressive. Nice whip for his last 22 innings. Nats seem to play with more confidence with him on the bump. Should be a very interesting series.

Good Luck.

Pitching is a wash in this game at best. For every argument you can make for Zimmerman, an equal argument can be made for Sanchez. Zimm's record also includes two wins against Miami, while Sanchez's record includes two losses to Minn where he received only two runs of support when he exited each game. Zimm could easily be undefeated since his only loss was a shut out and he only allowed two runs. However, Sanchez beat the same Braves squad with 17 K's over 8 Innings while allowing 5 hits. He would have beat the Braves in any park on the planet that day. 

Point is the pitching situation is a wash in this game. Neither pitcher is necessarily "hotter" than the other. Although I agree that all other things being equal, I would bet the team at + money as well. However, I do think the Tiger bats are better than the Nats. 

Neither pitcher has much of a sample size against the other teams batters so it's difficult to get any info on match ups there. 

BOL to everyone today. 
 
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Sanchez is 8-0 vs the Nats from his days on the Fish....But Zimm is lights out...
 
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Posted: #16

Keep arguing amongst yourselves

Pitcher effectiveness rating, including strength of schedule

Sanchez 75.9 - Zimmermann 75.0

Tigers versus righty last 15, 10-4-1, 5.6 oera, 41.1 rating

Nationals versus righty last 15, 6-7-2, 2.8 oera, 28.6 rating

Results are from 5 inning standings.

oera is Offensive earned run average per 9 innings, just like a pitchers

I will take my chances

 

 

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #17
Why are people wasting time on stats that are already built into the current line anyway?

Good luck Key.
 
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Any thoughts on the Yankees Key. Looks like a good spot.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by idealist:

Why are people wasting time on stats that are already built into the current line anyway?

Good luck Key.
Those stats are NOT built into the line because 99% of the public is unaware of them. Most folks read and respect the same stats the guys in this forum do. The line makers know what the public considers important, then they add a heavy home field advantage penalty because they know how folks feel about that too. Just look at how many times I am criticized for not considering the trends, when that is just another factor the line makers know the public loves and they compensate for that too. Line makers do not build lines to reflect true probability, that is the handicappers job, theirs is to fabricate a line that will draw balanced action, thereby guaranteeing the broker (the book, the house) a profit.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #21
Tigers game postponed Key.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by cardifkill:

Any thoughts on the Yankees Key. Looks like a good spot.
I can't get excited about the Yankees tonight. They probably have a little advantage with Kuroda if he does not implode, but they give it back on the offensive side of things. I don't even like the total. I will pass. BOL if you play it.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Quote Originally Posted by vtlo99:

Tigers game postponed Key.
Well, I was afraid of that. Fun discussion anyway. Nothing I care to boost into that slot or it would have been a play in the first place. My evening is dependent now on the Astros, and that does not scare me one bit.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

Well, I was afraid of that. Fun discussion anyway. Nothing I care to boost into that slot or it would have been a play in the first place. My evening is dependent now on the Astros, and that does not scare me one bit.


yuck, hope it hits for ya
 
 
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