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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: WS Game 1 - Giants and why
TheBuddah
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TheBuddah
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#1
Posted: 10/23/2012 8:26:02 PM

It's been a sweet ride with the giants the last several games and i believe it will continue tomorrow night.  Let's look at some numbers:

144 Detroit Verlander    2

       Giants  Zito           54

Det. opens up as a 144 favorite.   The numerical rating I have for verlander is 2 and for zito 54 (lower the better). Clearly verlander is better. In addition, verlander has more strikeouts than innings pitched - a great sign of a good to great pitcher.  However, when looking at the line 144 matched up to these numerical ratings - many of my data points - show the home team winning in this situation - thus i'm on the giants for game 1.

Another thing to be aware of - when dominant pitchers face teams they are not use to facing - often they struggle - this could be the case for zito as well  - either way i'm on the giants.  Good luck all.

 

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#2
Posted: 10/23/2012 9:12:13 PM
BOL 
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#3
Posted: 10/23/2012 9:26:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TheBuddah:

It's been a sweet ride with the giants the last several games and i believe it will continue tomorrow night.  Let's look at some numbers:

144 Detroit Verlander    2

       Giants  Zito           54

Det. opens up as a 144 favorite.   The numerical rating I have for verlander is 2 and for zito 54 (lower the better). Clearly verlander is better. In addition, verlander has more strikeouts than innings pitched - a great sign of a good to great pitcher.  However, when looking at the line 144 matched up to these numerical ratings - many of my data points - show the home team winning in this situation - thus i'm on the giants for game 1.

Another thing to be aware of - when dominant pitchers face teams they are not use to facing - often they struggle - this could be the case for zito as well  - either way i'm on the giants.  Good luck all.

 



Just wondering in your stats if it included a 98 to 100 mph fastball by Verlander that moves 2 to 3 feet right to left or left to right as it crosses the plate.  Just wondering.
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cedandhisbro
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#4
Posted: 10/23/2012 9:29:47 PM

I simply agree....and the days off wont help them Tigers ....like i comment we just have to match zeros or 1 to 1 game ....the Tigers bull pen is not that great....and we faced Cabrera and Fielder in the nl before....we know how to pitch to them.....mark my words Giants win the Wolrd Series....

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#5
Posted: 10/23/2012 9:34:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lookingtowin:



Just wondering in your stats if it included a 98 to 100 mph fastball by Verlander that moves 2 to 3 feet right to left or left to right as it crosses the plate.  Just wondering.



Wow listen to this guy! 
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#6
Posted: 10/23/2012 9:39:28 PM
This is capping? lol
Posted using a mobile device.
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TheBuddah
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#7
Posted: 10/23/2012 9:50:19 PM
Looking to win - that's the beauty of the system - it does take into consideration the fact that verlander is a strikeout pitcher - the formula is (power rank of the pitcher + (MOB - Sagarins Ricky #).  The ricky number is essentially the strikeouts a pitcher has.  Compare the numerical against the line - if verlander was so dominant that there wasn't any chance for the giants - this line would not be 144.  Looking at my numbers - if the opening line was higher - data indicated go with verlander - I would be on Detroit but it's 144 and i'm on the giants.   Odds makers are smart - the line they put on a game indicates many variables - so their is a reason it's 144 vice 185.
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#8
Posted: 10/23/2012 9:56:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lookingtowin:



Just wondering in your stats if it included a 98 to 100 mph fastball by Verlander that moves 2 to 3 feet right to left or left to right as it crosses the plate.  Just wondering.

Just wondering if you would let JV darn you in the behind? Listen to yourself. You sound like an arrogant kid that started watching baseball a couple years ago 

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#9
Posted: 10/23/2012 9:59:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TheBuddah:

Looking to win - that's the beauty of the system - it does take into consideration the fact that verlander is a strikeout pitcher - the formula is (power rank of the pitcher + (MOB - Sagarins Ricky #).  The ricky number is essentially the strikeouts a pitcher has.  Compare the numerical against the line - if verlander was so dominant that there wasn't any chance for the giants - this line would not be 144.  Looking at my numbers - if the opening line was higher - data indicated go with verlander - I would be on Detroit but it's 144 and i'm on the giants.   Odds makers are smart - the line they put on a game indicates many variables - so their is a reason it's 144 vice 185.


I hear ya.  Its just that its baseball man look at the broken bat last night and the ball hit the bat three times before it left.  Man you can have all the stats you want but................WTF shortstop takes off on contact to field first time it hit the bat to his right were it should have gone hits the bat again and straighens out and then again and sends it into left center field instead of left field by short were it was going.  Stats.  I think a lot of cappers would do a hell of a lot better if they just think the game through.  Is the layoff going to hurt the Tigers who's ptiching are the Giants going to be a little worn down from the ALDS.  I don't know if that is what you are telling me all the stats do then go with it.  I like my chances with what i would say is the best pitcher right now in MLB bar none.
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ihavenopatience
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#10
Posted: 10/23/2012 10:03:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by illnasty10:

This is capping? lol
I believe it is? Looking at the past to predict the future IMO is a solid way to cap if you have enough history to back it. I don't understand why people like you even post on threads that you have no input on seems pointless to me lol.

Okay now to buddah. What time did you get your line? I checked it at 8:40am pst and saw it at -166 did it really move that much since when you saw it?
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#11
Posted: 10/23/2012 10:06:47 PM
Following up to ihavenopatience's post, my book has DET @ -170.  Do you base your stats on just opening lines?  What about progressive increases (i.e.  DET opened @ 144, now 170)?  Thnx in advance.
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#12
Posted: 10/23/2012 10:07:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by breakem:


Just wondering if you would let JV darn you in the behind? Listen to yourself. You sound like an arrogant kid that started watching baseball a couple years ago 



Don't know if you are old enough to remember Tiger pitcher Jack Morris but if you are you are going to see more of the same tomorrow night.  Just a proud Tiger fan with what i would say is the best pitcher in baseball right now.  Not sure if there is a San Fran pitcher that has a 0.82 combined ERA through the NLDS and the NLCS series but that would be Verlanders ERA through the two series.  Yeah thats something to brag about and the whole world will see the action tomorrow.  As for the JV..........the behind just another Covers poster talking tough through the computer you are probably some little box wimp but i guess we will never know.
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#13
Posted: 10/23/2012 10:08:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Skeptrix:

Following up to ihavenopatience's post, my book has DET @ -170.  Do you base your stats on just opening lines?  What about progressive increases (i.e.  DET opened @ 144, now 170)?  Thnx in advance.

I meant to say, is SF still a play when DET is -170 now?
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#14
Posted: 10/23/2012 10:57:05 PM
Lets go giants!
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TheBuddah
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#15
Posted: 10/23/2012 11:22:15 PM

Ihavenopatience - I only use the opening line to base the research on. what the public thinks has no bearing on who to go with.  I let the numbers decide based on the opening lines.

Skeptrix - just the opening line.

looking to win - funny thing is I travel a lot and I buy a hat and wear it until it gets old - currently I've been wearing a tigers hat:)

Either way it should be a good series.

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#16
Posted: 10/23/2012 11:25:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lookingtowin:



Don't know if you are old enough to remember Tiger pitcher Jack Morris but if you are you are going to see more of the same tomorrow night.  Just a proud Tiger fan with what i would say is the best pitcher in baseball right now.  Not sure if there is a San Fran pitcher that has a 0.82 combined ERA through the NLDS and the NLCS series but that would be Verlanders ERA through the two series.  Yeah thats something to brag about and the whole world will see the action tomorrow.  As for the JV..........the behind just another Covers poster talking tough through the computer you are probably some little box wimp but i guess we will never know.

You nailed that one on the money! Read one of the other 20 threads you posted in and you can see other points of views on this World Series that actually has 2 teams playing in it. 

How about them Pistons and Lions though mr.pro motor city
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#17
Posted: 10/23/2012 11:27:18 PM
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101452722
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#18
Posted: 10/23/2012 11:29:23 PM
JV's WS numbers are not so hot buddy, don't forget that. Rookie or no rookie. 
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#19
Posted: 10/23/2012 11:39:59 PM
Verlander is throw back pitcher....not only is he dominant, he goes 9 innings....and he can amp it up when necessary....this is a low scoring game IMO, Tigers probably win....
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#20
Posted: 10/23/2012 11:46:05 PM
For the record, I have 4 units on Verlander on the runline in game 1 (+1.07)...I don't see the Giants scoring much.....
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#21
Posted: 10/23/2012 11:52:06 PM
I like Zito here, he hasn't lost a game since Aug 7.
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#22
Posted: 10/23/2012 11:53:23 PM
Aug 2nd was the last game he lost to NYM.
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#23
Posted: 10/23/2012 11:58:59 PM
Aug 7th is my birthday       I don't think Zito is Verlander's class.....JV may be the best MLB pitcher right now.....it will be interesting to see what Leyland does if JV has to bat in the 7th, or 8th....
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#24
Posted: 10/24/2012 1:03:24 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lookingtowin:



Just wondering in your stats if it included a 98 to 100 mph fastball by Verlander that moves 2 to 3 feet right to left or left to right as it crosses the plate.  Just wondering.

The giants will hit him !! I guess we will have to wait and see if J.V. doesn't garbage down his leg like last time, Should b a good game.. I am on the ants however,they r just runnin real hot at the moment, don't be surprised if they light em up.. Just sayin !! Good luck with ur play !!
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#25
Posted: 10/24/2012 2:37:55 AM

Buddah-i know you only use opening lines i read all 4 parts in the strategy section you posted was just wondering how early you saw those lines at? Are you checking at your book? or just googling it? cause i thought i saw it early at -166

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