NLDS Game 1: Nationals @ Cardinals
Projected Starters: Gio Gonzalez vs. Adam Wainwright
There's no question St. Louis will be favored here... it's just a matter of how much. In Wainwright's last start of the season he closed -135 against this same Nationals squad, albeit with Edwin Jackson as the opposing starter. We obviously know the line can't be that high this time, because it's quite clear Gio is the Nats ace and power-rates substantially higher than Jackson. The question is, how much?
My current power ratings show that Jackson is very similar to Mike Minor, who opposed Gonzalez on 9/16 and closed as a +100 underdog. I've got Jackson at about 5 cents better than Minor, meaning if there were a hypothetical matchup of Gio Gonzalez @ Edwin Jackson (which obviously could never happen since they are on the same team), you'd get a line of Jackson -105. Coincidentally, if you took Wainwright's line of -135 at home against Jackson and transferred that to Washington, you'd get about the same line, Jackson -105.
This is a long way of saying that essentially, Gio and Wainwright have pretty much the same power-rating. While Gio is the better pitcher, Wainwright has the better offense backing him. With equal power-ratings, just apply the 15 cents to STL for home field off the -105/-105 baseline and you get your line.
Projected Line: STL -120/+110
thoughts on OAK/DET line today?
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