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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Money Ball, Thursday 8-30-2012
KeyElement
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KeyElement
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#1
Posted: 8/30/2012 11:30:30 AM

YTD: 272-262-21, +215.9 Units, +8.41% RoR

8-3-1, +26.78 Units Wednesday has another week rolling again at 12-9-1, +21.35 units.

5 & 9 Inning Plays Today

Mariners +115, +119, (Beavan / Duensing)

Every now and then for a short time Duensing looks like a major league pitcher, then the full moon comes around and he reverts to being himself. Full moon tonight. This guy is a disaster and the Mariners can hit lefties.  Coming off a shutout I look for them to pund him early and often.

Red Sox +145, +153, (Lester / Greinke)

Explosive bats were the rule last night but tonight stacks up as a pitchers duel. When that happens a buck fifty dog is worth taking a shot with. My current ratings have Lester and Greinke pretty close but Lester is on the rise and Greinke is slipping. Forget the last performance by each, that is not how I measure things. Trust me.

Grand Salami

Visitors -135

Home field advantage is almost non existent tonight and the scoring potential lies with the road teams. I just know someone will read that and soil his diaper at the thought of home teams being at a disadvantage, but it is true as, by three different methods, I have visitors winning 7 to 9 of the 11 games and probably by 2 or more in 5 of those games. Those who fear surrendering the hypothetical home field advantage should be aware that the betting public feels exactly the same way, so the home field advantage penalty is built into this line just as it is in the game lines.

BOL

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#2
Posted: 8/30/2012 11:34:14 AM

Best of luck, Key........with you on the Mariners.

 

Hope Boston hits for you, if I played that game I would take the Sox....
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ShadowWarrior
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#3
Posted: 8/30/2012 11:37:40 AM
Love these when first five and full game are in agreement.  Would there ever be an occasion where first five is for one team and full game be on the other?  Like football first half wager can be a different side then the second half?  Still learning so much about wagering in bases, glad I am able to follow along.  Thanks.  Your write ups onTwinks and BoSox games are very accurate.
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#4
Posted: 8/30/2012 12:01:59 PM
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KeyElement
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#5
Posted: 8/30/2012 12:03:56 PM
ShadowWarrior: Probably no way you will ever see a reversal by me in an MLB game. To bet the first 5 you have to believe you will be winning after the first 5. Why would you then want to have to cover that lead plus a winning margin after 5? Don't even get into bullpens and comeback possibilities after 5, if you have the lead you can live with the bullpen you have got. Bullpens, any of them, are more often a reflection of what the starter turned over to them than they are of any miracles or disasters they may create on their own. Given a 6+ inning starter with a lead versus a 4 or 5 inning starter with the better bullpen I will take the 6+ guy with a lead every time.

The only exception I can imagine might be a 5 inning Over and a 9 inning Under because on average 60% of the scoring occurs in the first 5 innings, but the lines usually neutralize that by placing an extra half run on the first five. It might happen some day, but don't hold your breath.
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#6
Posted: 8/30/2012 1:06:56 PM
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#7
Posted: 8/30/2012 1:29:52 PM
Is there any specific reason you pick the 1st 5 and 9 instead of just placing double the wager on whichever one of those you feel more comfortable about?
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xbaggypants
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#8
Posted: 8/30/2012 1:30:08 PM
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#9
Posted: 8/30/2012 1:35:32 PM
bol
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ShadowWarrior
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#10
Posted: 8/30/2012 1:57:47 PM
Thanks for the explanation.  The reasoning is very thorough and logical.  Helps me process the wagering choice.
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#11
Posted: 8/30/2012 1:59:21 PM
Duensing is wheeling and dealing hope he implodes soon .
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#12
Posted: 8/30/2012 2:29:45 PM
This guy pitching like Cy Young .. no hit out of the infield ..
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#13
Posted: 8/30/2012 3:09:20 PM

Finally we break thru in a big way ... one inning late but we take it ...

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#14
Posted: 8/30/2012 3:17:45 PM
I don't know about you but im on the Royals @ +102 today with a spinkle on the Red Sox.  Only 2 plays in MLB.  Be back later with NCAAF
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#15
Posted: 8/30/2012 3:24:42 PM
 ILL BE LOOKING FOR YOUR THREAD BRO
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#16
Posted: 8/30/2012 3:28:09 PM
big fan of you KeyElement...but the phrase 'trust me' reminds me of the classic film, Risky Business. 

The line, 'seems to me that the word 'trust' should be a four-letter word' LOL

best of luck!
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#17
Posted: 8/30/2012 3:58:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Teaser78:

 ILL BE LOOKING FOR YOUR THREAD BRO


couple more post and you are MVP status here at covers

Leave post #10,000 for your big money play so we can all jump on it and make us some
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KeyElement
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#18
Posted: 8/30/2012 4:57:40 PM
well, so far we pick up a little on the Mariners by splitting and at this moment are up 31-23 in the Grand Salami. The Brewers should seal the deal and set us up nicely for the evening games. At least that is the theory. bd_c you got your foots pick ready?

.
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KeyElement
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#19
Posted: 8/30/2012 6:36:38 PM
Well, leave it to Franky. He finds a way to record another blown save and a loss. We lead only 33-31 heading into the evening games.
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dcgmt
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#20
Posted: 8/30/2012 6:58:22 PM
gl
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#21
Posted: 8/30/2012 6:58:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KeyElement:

well, so far we pick up a little on the Mariners by splitting and at this moment are up 31-23 in the Grand Salami. The Brewers should seal the deal and set us up nicely for the evening games. At least that is the theory. bd_c you got your foots pick ready?

.


Sorry for the late response.  This was posted about 2 hours ago in the NCAAF thread

Wek 1 plays
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#22
Posted: 8/30/2012 6:59:11 PM
for those interested:

South Carolina over 45

Akron +24
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