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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: GiLz Largest Package ((as of... Tues. 8/21))
GiLmo574 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Hard Rock |
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#1
Posted: 8/21/2012 5:03:49 AM

  =  *YTD*  @  +95.23 unit$



Hit the big play of the day with the Rangers yesterday.  Dropped 3 on the Night Capper though... picked up +4.75 unit$ overall.


Now, on to today  -  this will be my largest combined play of the year, thus far.  It's a big play on David Price, a bigger fade on Luke Hochevar, and a cherry on top of it all with Mr. Over himself, Paul. freaking. Emmel behind the plate.


FYI  -  GiLz Package Play is 3+ plays on the same game.


Ain't nothin' to it but to do it, Thread'ers...  





PACKAGE PLAY:    (Tues. 8/21)

 Rays RL @ -115  =  [6U]
 Rays/Royals *OVER 7* @ -110  =  [4U]
 Rays *TT OVER ?* @ -???  =  [4U]




= Not a hotter pitcher in the bigs then David Price.  Not a hotter team in the bigs right now then the Tampa Bay Rays.  Not a hotter OVER umpire in the bigs then Paul Emmel.  You have these 3 key ingredients... and then The Kicker.


Luke Hochevar is one of my favorite pitchers to fade... and this fade is after he pitches a Quality Start; his last outing, -vs- the Athletics, he went 7IP giving up 3ER, making it a Quality Start.


Since 2010, here are Luke Hochevar's stats after he pitches a Quality Start:

9-17  /  5.62 ERA  /  1.40 WHIP


YES  -  Luke Hochevar did pitch a complete game shutout -vs- the Rays back on June 25th of this year... but that was not the same Rays.  And, that was @ Home.  Luke Hochevar is a waaay different pitcher on the road away from Kauffman Stadium, and I've done some stat crunching since 2009.  Check it out:

15-22  /  6.18 ERA  /  1.49 WHIP


> His stats in 2 career starts @ The Trop:
0-1  /  9.31 ERA (9.2IP, 10ER)  /  2.17 WHIP (16H, 4BB)


So, as you can see, my fade on Luke Hochevar is strong.  And with the way the Ray-Rays are playing ball + David Price and his 2nd Half 5-0 record with an ERA @ 1.43 and a WHIP @ 0.90 + Mr. Emmel calling the game...


GiLz diggin' it...  





Best of Luck today, Thread'ers.    



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#2
Posted: 8/21/2012 5:06:30 AM
Good luck BEASTskeeeeeeeeeeee!
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#3
Posted: 8/21/2012 5:29:38 AM
Tinskeeeeeeee!  
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#4
Posted: 8/21/2012 5:46:07 AM
* Quick Notes:

UNDERS have hit around 65% @ The Trop since the start of 2011  -  one of the best UNDER parks in Baseball.

The Ray-Rays are 10-1 in their last 11 after scoring 5 or more the previous game.

The Ray-Rays are 13-3 in their last 16 after winning the previous game.

David Price is off 4 days of rest  -  but the Rays have won 69% of the games he's started off 4 days of rest since 2010.

Majority off all Rays/Royals trends point to the UNDER  -  if Paul Emmel wasn't 23-1 this year to the OVER, then I wouldn't be betting this UNDER based on the trends, Price, and ballpark.




Bed time.



Catch y'all in a few hours or so...  





    GiLz Thread'ers    
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#5
Posted: 8/21/2012 7:38:17 AM
bol gil
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#6
Posted: 8/21/2012 7:50:29 AM

Great insight as always

BOL GiL

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#7
Posted: 8/21/2012 8:11:17 AM
On it. GL Gilmo 
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#8
Posted: 8/21/2012 8:26:01 AM
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#9
Posted: 8/21/2012 8:27:24 AM
Mutha friggin Gilzzmo


hit that garbage big
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#10
Posted: 8/21/2012 8:56:20 AM
Good Luck Buddy 
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#11
Posted: 8/21/2012 9:24:05 AM
good luck Gil  
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#12
Posted: 8/21/2012 9:27:25 AM
Enough said..... Mother friggin Gil
Posted using a mobile device.
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#13
Posted: 8/21/2012 10:01:28 AM
you convinced me!!!  let's go Rays!!!!!   
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#14
Posted: 8/21/2012 10:06:32 AM

 OOYEA.. LET'S GO RAYS

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#15
Posted: 8/21/2012 10:10:43 AM
BOL GiLz!
on it with you!
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#16
Posted: 8/21/2012 10:17:30 AM
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#17
Posted: 8/21/2012 10:26:33 AM
I like your package Gil... no person!!!!

I am diggin those #s on Luke

See you @ the Cashiers window, if you happen to get there before me with the paul emmel over... hold my spot in line for the Rays RL buddy


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#18
Posted: 8/21/2012 10:32:00 AM
Cash it 
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#19
Posted: 8/21/2012 10:32:30 AM
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#20
Posted: 8/21/2012 10:37:52 AM
Had rays ml -1.5 -2.5 tto4 and o7.5 yesterday (4-1)
Could it possibly go the same way back to back..?
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#21
Posted: 8/21/2012 11:14:37 AM
love it
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#22
Posted: 8/21/2012 11:18:50 AM

Ironically enough, Hochevar is one of my favorite pitcher's to back. He's been my cash cow this season. But I certainly won't be backing him tonight.

BOL with the card Gil.

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#23
Posted: 8/21/2012 11:19:19 AM
GL GiLmo
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#24
Posted: 8/21/2012 11:32:28 AM
With ya GilMo!!! 
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#25
Posted: 8/21/2012 12:39:52 PM
Thanx, Thread'ers.    















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