Posted: 8/21/2012 5:03:49 AM
= *YTD* @ +95.23 unit$
Hit the big play of the day with the Rangers yesterday. Dropped 3 on the Night Capper though... picked up +4.75 unit$ overall.
Now, on to today - this will be my largest combined play of the year, thus far. It's a big play on David Price, a bigger fade on Luke Hochevar, and a cherry on top of it all with Mr. Over himself, Paul. freaking. Emmel behind the plate.
FYI - GiLz Package Play is 3+ plays on the same game.
Ain't nothin' to it but to do it, Thread'ers... PACKAGE PLAY: (Tues. 8/21)
Rays RL @ -115 = [6U]
Rays/Royals *OVER 7* @ -110 = [4U]
Rays *TT OVER ?* @ -??? = [4U]
= Not a hotter pitcher in the bigs then David Price. Not a hotter team in the bigs right now then the Tampa Bay Rays. Not a hotter OVER umpire in the bigs then Paul Emmel. You have these 3 key ingredients... and then The Kicker.
Luke Hochevar is one of my favorite pitchers to fade... and this fade is after he pitches a Quality Start; his last outing, -vs- the Athletics, he went 7IP giving up 3ER, making it a Quality Start.
Since 2010, here are Luke Hochevar's stats after he pitches a Quality Start:
9-17 / 5.62 ERA / 1.40 WHIP
YES - Luke Hochevar did pitch a complete game shutout -vs- the Rays back on June 25th of this year... but that was not the same Rays. And, that was @ Home. Luke Hochevar is a waaay different pitcher on the road away from Kauffman Stadium, and I've done some stat crunching since 2009. Check it out:
15-22 / 6.18 ERA / 1.49 WHIP
> His stats in 2 career starts @ The Trop:
0-1 / 9.31 ERA (9.2IP, 10ER) / 2.17 WHIP (16H, 4BB)
So, as you can see, my fade on Luke Hochevar is strong. And with the way the Ray-Rays are playing ball + David Price and his 2nd Half 5-0 record with an ERA @ 1.43 and a WHIP @ 0.90 + Mr. Emmel calling the game...
GiLz diggin' it... Best of Luck today, Thread'ers.