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[MLB Betting] Topic: GiLz Largest Package ((as of... Tues. 8/21)) |
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GiLmo574 |
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#1 Posted: 8/21/2012 5:03:49 AM
 = *YTD* @ +95.23 unit$
Hit the big play of the day with the Rangers yesterday. Dropped 3 on the Night Capper though... picked up +4.75 unit$ overall.
Now, on to today - this will be my largest combined play of the year, thus far. It's a big play on David Price, a bigger fade on Luke Hochevar, and a cherry on top of it all with Mr. Over himself, Paul. freaking. Emmel behind the plate.
FYI - GiLz Package Play is 3+ plays on the same game.
Ain't nothin' to it but to do it, Thread'ers... 
PACKAGE PLAY: (Tues. 8/21)
 Rays RL @ -115 = [6U]
Rays/Royals *OVER 7* @ -110 = [4U]
Rays *TT OVER ?* @ -??? = [4U]
= Not a hotter pitcher in the bigs then David Price. Not a hotter team in the bigs right now then the Tampa Bay Rays. Not a hotter OVER umpire in the bigs then Paul Emmel. You have these 3 key ingredients... and then The Kicker.
Luke Hochevar is one of my favorite pitchers to fade... and this fade is after he pitches a Quality Start; his last outing, -vs- the Athletics, he went 7IP giving up 3ER, making it a Quality Start.
Since 2010, here are Luke Hochevar's stats after he pitches a Quality Start:
9-17 / 5.62 ERA / 1.40 WHIP
YES - Luke Hochevar did pitch a complete game shutout -vs- the Rays back on June 25th of this year... but that was not the same Rays. And, that was @ Home. Luke Hochevar is a waaay different pitcher on the road away from Kauffman Stadium, and I've done some stat crunching since 2009. Check it out:
15-22 / 6.18 ERA / 1.49 WHIP
> His stats in 2 career starts @ The Trop:
0-1 / 9.31 ERA (9.2IP, 10ER) / 2.17 WHIP (16H, 4BB)
So, as you can see, my fade on Luke Hochevar is strong. And with the way the Ray-Rays are playing ball + David Price and his 2nd Half 5-0 record with an ERA @ 1.43 and a WHIP @ 0.90 + Mr. Emmel calling the game...
GiLz diggin' it... 
Best of Luck today, Thread'ers. 
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tinfoils |
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#2 Posted: 8/21/2012 5:06:30 AM |
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GiLmo574 |
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#3 Posted: 8/21/2012 5:29:38 AM |
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GiLmo574 |
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#4 Posted: 8/21/2012 5:46:07 AM
UNDERS have hit around 65% @ The Trop since the start of 2011 - one of the best UNDER parks in Baseball.
The Ray-Rays are 10-1 in their last 11 after scoring 5 or more the previous game.
The Ray-Rays are 13-3 in their last 16 after winning the previous game.
David Price is off 4 days of rest - but the Rays have won 69% of the games he's started off 4 days of rest since 2010.
Majority off all Rays/Royals trends point to the UNDER - if Paul Emmel wasn't 23-1 this year to the OVER, then I wouldn't be betting this UNDER based on the trends, Price, and ballpark.
Bed time.
Catch y'all in a few hours or so...
 GiLz Thread'ers |
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Louis_IV |
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#5 Posted: 8/21/2012 7:38:17 AM |
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CanadaCup |
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#6 Posted: 8/21/2012 7:50:29 AM Great insight as always
BOL GiL  |
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2112 |
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#7 Posted: 8/21/2012 8:11:17 AM |
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BIGCAT_LSU |
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#8 Posted: 8/21/2012 8:26:01 AM |
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outlaw96 |
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#9 Posted: 8/21/2012 8:27:24 AM
hit that garbage big 
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ralph2026 |
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#10 Posted: 8/21/2012 8:56:20 AM  |
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#11 Posted: 8/21/2012 9:24:05 AM |
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timdogs17 |
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#12 Posted: 8/21/2012 9:27:25 AM |
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motorcitymama |
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#13 Posted: 8/21/2012 10:01:28 AM |
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YoungTal3nted76 |
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#14 Posted: 8/21/2012 10:06:32 AM OOYEA.. LET'S GO RAYS |
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Grasshopper42 |
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#15 Posted: 8/21/2012 10:10:43 AM
on it with you!
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#16 Posted: 8/21/2012 10:17:30 AM |
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SJSharks99 |
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#17 Posted: 8/21/2012 10:26:33 AM 
I am diggin those #s on Luke
See you @ the Cashiers window, if you happen to get there before me with the paul emmel over... hold my spot in line for the Rays RL buddy
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#18 Posted: 8/21/2012 10:32:00 AM  |
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#19 Posted: 8/21/2012 10:32:30 AM |
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#20 Posted: 8/21/2012 10:37:52 AM Could it possibly go the same way back to back..? |
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wiseman22 |
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#21 Posted: 8/21/2012 11:14:37 AM |
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#22 Posted: 8/21/2012 11:18:50 AM
Ironically enough, Hochevar is one of my favorite pitcher's to back. He's been my cash cow this season. But I certainly won't be backing him tonight.
BOL with the card Gil. |
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brent0887 |
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#23 Posted: 8/21/2012 11:19:19 AM |
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kinggeorge27 |
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#24 Posted: 8/21/2012 11:32:28 AM |
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GiLmo574 |
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#25 Posted: 8/21/2012 12:39:52 PM
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