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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: SJSharks - Tuesday Bases
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#1
Posted: 8/21/2012 1:54:47 AM
Monday 0-1: The card didn't appeal to me very much and I was short on time so I decided to stay disciplined and eat the loss. Got the start out of Dickey I wanted for my +100 RL play, but the Mets garbage the bed against Alex White n company. Needless to say no Mutts anytime soon..

71-47 Last 118
(60.1%)

48-30 Last 78 (61.5%)


Season: 169-155-4
ML: 93-82
RL: 28-15
Totals: 34-45-3
Props: 13-14-1


Monday Bases



Rays RL (-115):
The hottest team in Baseball will look to continue there winning ways with ace David Price taking the mound. This guy has been down right filthy late and pretty much unhittable lately. In his last 3 outings Price is 2-0 with a microscopic era of 0.82. His WHIP is even lower at 0.77, which of course tells us he isn't pitching out of the stretch and not relying on his defense to get him out of jams. He is simply owning everyone he is facing lately. Price has been money at home this year as well, coming in with a 7-2 mark and a 1.82 era. His season long WHIP @ Tropicana field is a solid 0.92. He should have no problems facing a Royals offense that ranks in the bottom half against lefties at #18 overall. On the flip side the Royals will be sending Luke Hochevar to the hill in this one. Coming into tonight's game he is 7-11 on the year with a 5.24 era. In terms of his recent play he is 0-2 and has a 5.40 era in his last 3 outings. Luke hasn't been that good on the road either, coming in with a 5-6 mark and a 5.43 era. The one stat trending in the wrong direction in Luke's road starts is a WHIP of 1.50, which is significantly higher then his home starts. He will be playing with fire if he gives up free passes and pitches out of the stretch against a red hot Rays team who are getting the job done in both offense and pitching. The one thing Luke has in common with his seasonal #s, road #s and recent #s is an era in the 5s. Luke is consist and consistently bad. This makes me feel pretty confident that nothing is indicating he is gonna randomly throw a gem in Tuesday's outing. The Rays have been scorching hot lately winners in 12 of there last 14 outings. We all know this team for there lights out pitching, but the offense has been getting it done as well. The Rays have scored 5 or more runs in 5 consecutive starts. They have scored a total of 85 runs during this 14 game stretch which is an average of just over 6 runs per game. With the Rays sending David Price to the mound in this game, I feel if they can even get 4 runs on the board against the struggling Hochevar then the RL has a very very good chance of hitting. The Rays also have one of the best bullpens in the league, which of course is a big factor in protecting RLs, especially at home. I feel Price will go 8 strong and hand the rock over to Rodney to close the door. This is also another situational game for the Rays, they are within striking distance of the Yankees for the AL East and every game is being treated that way lately. They silenced the critics in completing the sweep in LAA, and then immediately turned around and silenced some more doubters when they avoided a classic let down spot in Monday's game, following a long travel and time zone changes etc. They are focused and with Price on the hill, this one feels good.


few other leans, but will wait n see how things are looking in the am... as always best of luck everyone
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#2
Posted: 8/21/2012 2:02:46 AM
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#3
Posted: 8/21/2012 2:06:12 AM
Adding

locking this is now for a smaller play...

Yankees ML +105

Nova/Liriano both are pretty blah... but Nova gets the upper hand, Nova road splits are also a nice stat. He pitches better away from home. The Yankees will have a major advantage in terms splits in offensive production. They also have the better bullpen overall. The end result might not be there, but backing the Yankees for + money is usually not a bad play. Pretty short write up on this one, because sleep is calling my name. I think if I hold off on locking this in now though, ill regret it. This will probably in the negatives come closer to game time.
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#4
Posted: 8/21/2012 2:08:08 AM
Nooo Sharky not the Yanks!

Totally with you on the Rays though 
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#5
Posted: 8/21/2012 2:08:57 AM
^^^

The Yankees also need this game. They are fully aware of the Rays breathing down there necks and they know the Rays will probably be winning again with Price pitching on Tuesday. It's way too early to start throwing out the word "must" win... but Giradi knows his group can't afford to drop 2 straight right now with the way the Rays are going.


My monday card is AL EAST themed thus far haha
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#6
Posted: 8/21/2012 2:10:03 AM
what you think about cards? high juice but maybe RL? astros are pure garbage on the road.

gonna do a rays/cards parlay for even money.
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#7
Posted: 8/21/2012 2:10:13 AM
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#8
Posted: 8/21/2012 2:10:44 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SJSharks99:

Monday 0-1: The card didn't appeal to me very much and I was short on time so I decided to stay disciplined and eat the loss. Got the start out of Dickey I wanted for my +100 RL play, but the Mets garbage the bed against Alex White n company. Needless to say no Mutts anytime soon..

71-47 Last 118
(60.1%)

48-30 Last 78 (61.5%)


Season: 169-155-4
ML: 93-82
RL: 28-15
Totals: 34-45-3
Props: 13-14-1


*****Tuesday Bases*****






my days are mixed up haha...
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#9
Posted: 8/21/2012 2:11:35 AM
Don't you think the game is more important to the Sox than the Yankees who have a decent lead in the division?
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#10
Posted: 8/21/2012 2:12:21 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Riceboi:

what you think about cards? high juice but maybe RL? astros are pure garbage on the road.

gonna do a rays/cards parlay for even money.


if you are parlaying, I would go..
Rays RL
Cards ML - only because Harrell is the best pitcher the Astros have, he kept them in it against Atlanta a couple weeks ago on the road I believe
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#11
Posted: 8/21/2012 2:19:18 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by greg152072:

Don't you think the game is more important to the Sox than the Yankees who have a decent lead in the division?



The game is important for both teams, but the Yankees are the ones who let an early 3 run lead slip away and dropped this game tonight. They don't wanna drop 2 straight. If they lose Tuesday's game, and the Rays win, that "decent" lead is down to 3 games. A 3 game lead is nothing with a team as hot as the Rays are. The Rays are also a notorious 2nd half team every year, so the Yankees know they need to put the petal to the metal and do what they can do get some separation. They had a double digit lead not too long ago, so they know it's dwindling. The White Sox getting swept this past week by the Royals was a huge indicator to me that, this group still has a lot of work to do if they are to be serious contenders. The Yankees on the other hand have been down this road before. I simply don't see them dropping 2 in a row. If they were facing someone like Chris Sale, you wouldn't see me touching the Yankees with a 12 foot pole. But Nova vs. Liriano... that's fair game and the offensive advantage for the Yankees is a large one. I wouldn't feel right passing up + money on them in this game
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#12
Posted: 8/21/2012 2:21:14 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Pasteur:

Nooo Sharky not the Yanks!

Totally with you on the Rays though 



both AL East teams handle business tomorrow
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#13
Posted: 8/21/2012 2:22:08 AM
All very good points I just don't trust Nova watched him get torched my a battered Blue Jays team. I feel like this is a coin toss throw the coin in the air and hope for heads.
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#14
Posted: 8/21/2012 2:25:36 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by greg152072:

All very good points I just don't trust Nova watched him get torched my a battered Blue Jays team. I feel like this is a coin toss throw the coin in the air and hope for heads.



I watched that game too... I don't trust Nova that much either, but I also don't trust Liriano either. I think the pitching in this game is pretty close to a wash. But I like the offensive advantages NYY has. This is more situational then anything. And as mentioned, it's a smaller wager. The Rays RL will be the one I really wanna make sure I get on Tuesday
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#15
Posted: 8/21/2012 2:27:06 AM
Novas last four starts.
 
07/31 BAL 0 1 0 5.0 10 9 1 5
08/06 @DET 0 1 0 5.1 11 7 0 5
08/11 @TOR 1 0 0 7.1 5 2 1 10
08/16 TEX 0 0 0 5.2 7 4 4 2
 
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#16
Posted: 8/21/2012 2:33:44 AM
I hear ya greg... like I said, more situational then anything. Neither pitcher impresses me.
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#17
Posted: 8/21/2012 2:50:28 AM

Good luck man, darn the Mets 

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#18
Posted: 8/21/2012 2:53:10 AM
Any thoughts on Cincinatti tomorrow great value?
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#19
Posted: 8/21/2012 2:55:47 AM
@ Lance: agreed buddy

@ Greg: the reds as a nice dog play is definitely a lean Im having. It's hard to believe Lee is 0 fer at home but he is. Still pondering on that because I hate fading elite pitchers, but I definitely see some value with the Reds
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#20
Posted: 8/21/2012 3:37:48 AM
Very nice write-up on 'dem Ray-Rays, SJ.


Working on my garbage now... pop on over soon and see the fade state I got on Lukeu Hochevar after he comes off a Quality Start.




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#21
Posted: 8/21/2012 3:38:17 AM
^* fade stats
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#22
Posted: 8/21/2012 4:15:49 AM

i kinda like they yanks in this spot too.  

what do u think of the over bro?  two total gas cans pitching? i was shocked the total was 9 and not 10 or even 11.     thats only thing that worries me

nova has given up more extra base hits then anyone  and lirano is good for 4-5 walks with the patient yanks lineup..

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#23
Posted: 8/21/2012 5:31:42 AM

SJ,

What's your opinion on taking the Rays at -2.5 for plus money?

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#24
Posted: 8/21/2012 5:43:34 AM
The Price is Right!

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#25
Posted: 8/21/2012 6:03:04 AM
Good luck SJS!
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