Messages

7-3, +597 Sunday ends a fine week at 26-14-1, +1,557

Are you ready for this? I have had a lot of fun with the “100 Units Per Play” thing but it is often misinterpreted. It does not, and never has, represented $100 per play. The Covers MLB Forum long ago decided a “unit” can be anything you want it to be, and if you are a “lay the juice player” sometimes your unit is what you want to wager (underdog) and sometimes it is the amount you want to win (favorite). Either way there is no definite description of a “unit”. So be it, that is the choice of the forum, not me. Well anyway, I have had my fun but current conditions and my computer program (which is my real boss ) have dictated another method, supposedly advantageous to myself as well as anyone that values my plays and/or opinions (both of you).

The “Basic” play will now be 5 units. This will allow me to also play 4 units on a slightly weaker play or 6 units on a slightly stronger one, with an occasional 3 on a high value-low probability underdog, like the Astros yesterday. I don’t expect to ever see a 7 unit play but if it happens I will make a really big deal out of it and do an extensive write up about it. I do not believe in huge variances in risk, like 1 to 10 or 20 units.  There will probably never be a 2 unit as anything that low in probability is just not worthy of any risk at all.

So, the following is the conversion I am using. Anyone not doing the math or just punching the keyboard without a moments thought will only wind up embarrassed, so don’t do it without evidence.

Sunday morning’s posted record:

5 Inning YTD 84-93-19, -151 9 Inning YTD: 155-141-1, +3,533 NET. +3,382 (+7.2 % RoR)

Sunday’s results:

7-3, +597.3

Updated record after Sunday’s action:

5 Inning YTD 87-95-19, +20.62 9 Inning YTD: 159-142-1, +3,958.64 NET. +3,979.26 (+8.239 % RoR)

Two things to note: 1. because of the conversion I have added the necessary decimals, which I normally don’t do, it just makes for easier reading, but the program does track it and it is always available. 2. After being down around 1,500 units on the early season 5 inning plays I have recovered every single penny and the number is not now red, it is green. Yippee! I may eliminate the separate listing because I wouldn’t want a new viewer to think “Gee, this guy is doing a lot better in 9 than 5.” That simply is not currently true, it is just that I had a lot of ground to make up in the 5 inning category.

The 5 unit conversion is rather simple, you just divide by 20:

5 Inning YTD 87-95-19, +1.031 9 Inning YTD: 159-142-1, +197.932 NET = +198.963 (+8.239 % RoR)

The W-L record and Return On Risk are not affected at all. All plays will remain flat wagers. I do not “add the juice” to anything.

Those that care can digest that for a while and I will be back with my picks. I expect to have a relatively large card again tonight, even though it is a Monday with only 12 games. Cya later.

YTD: 246-237-20, +199 Units

All plays, unless otherwise noted, are 5 units

5 & 9 Inning Plays Today

Royals +151, +159, (Smith / Hellickson)

Orioles +155, +158, (Gonzalez / Dempster)

Cubs +142, +145, (Germano / Rogers)

Yankees -.5, +110, -1.5, +145, (Garcia / Floyd)  

Twins-A’s Over 4, +100, Over 7.5, +100, (Duensing / McCarthy)

BOL

Key,

I was wondering what "RoR" stands for?

Key--Thanks for your thoughts---I AM LEANING OVER AS WELL

Thanks