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Author:	[MLB Betting] Topic: How you can tell a Straight game from a Vegas trap game?
14allall41	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Dec 2011 Posts: 325 Location: United States	#1 Posted: 8/14/2012 4:20:48 AM Lately me, and not only me - stumbled on a very strange Totals lines as well as the Side (but not as much) - released by Vegas. First I thought that the person who was pointing out at the lines calling them a trap and taking impossible outcome pick - was nuts. But after it hit, and then another one did - I became absolutely curious about it. Do you share my feeling about it and if so - which games in last 10 days qualify for that? If we find a pattern - we might first save money avoiding those traps and even make some playing with Vegas.
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Mick960	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: Caesars Palace \|
Prospect Joined: Jul 2012 Posts: 369 Location: New York	#2 Posted: 8/14/2012 4:42:01 AM August 10, Giants - Rockies Under 7 with Chatwood pitching for the Rockies - it ended 3-0
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austrian	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: bet365 \|
Prospect Joined: Apr 2012 Posts: 128 Location: Austria	#3 Posted: 8/14/2012 5:22:16 AM There is not even a day that there aren't any trap games. Yesterday, for example - almost the whole ticket was a trap. Smart capper thou - knows how to cash on it better than a chalk eaters - like Mick960. I see you learned your lesson son and today picked less chalky games. No offense 14allall41, but this jumping Irish gets on my nerves.
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kinggeorge27	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Feb 2006 Posts: 3541 Location: United States	#4 Posted: 8/14/2012 5:27:48 AM Every Sunday night game, go opposite of the play. The Mets game was the perfect trap for the Braves chasers. I was very interested in this game, and picked the Mets in a pick'em thing I do for fun. But I didn't lay the first unit on this game. Sunday night always reeks of trap.
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Avenger_deux	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Apr 2011 Posts: 391 Location:	#5 Posted: 8/14/2012 6:22:04 AM The line isn't juiced for a heavy public fav. Example: Braves on Sunday, was +100 (?? not sure what line was, but it was a good line). anyways, everyone thinks Braves are the better team, the public will bite, even at -130 (can compare from past lines) and the books don't move it all day, even though public is pounding it. there was a capper, hitterno24, most his play were trap game plays, and I don't think he's had a losing year. I haven't seen him post this year. It doesn't always work. I'd say it work 66% of the time, enough to squeak out a profit by the end of the season.
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whitewedding	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Dec 2011 Posts: 122 Location: Madagascar	#6 Posted: 8/14/2012 7:36:26 AM Every day there is a commission called LVSC and they are the ones who consult the books about the lines and odds. Why they and not someone else? Because they're closely connected as with the pro sports governing bodies as MLB, NBA, NFL , NHL WNBA etc and the books. Since the Pro sports bodies have one goal only - making more profit every year and they know that without sports betting the interest in games will be lower - they cooperate closely with books through LVSC. So, the games are seaprated ona daily bases between the "let it go as it such is" (LIGASIS) and "special treatment" (ST). The weight of ST can never succeed over 25%. Both sides win: the Books know which games to entrtapment and the PSGB (Pro Sports Governing Bodies) create an extra interest, rating and thus revenues from advertising, merchandising etc. If you have any doubt in what I say - you probably believe in fairy tales and in Santa as well.
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juliansorrel	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Sep 2011 Posts: 268 Location: Quebec	#7 Posted: 8/14/2012 10:02:57 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by whitewedding: Every day there is a commission called LVSC and they are the ones who consult the books about the lines and odds. Why they and not someone else? Because they're closely connected as with the pro sports governing bodies as MLB, NBA, NFL , NHL WNBA etc and the books. Since the Pro sports bodies have one goal only - making more profit every year and they know that without sports betting the interest in games will be lower - they cooperate closely with books through LVSC. So, the games are seaprated ona daily bases between the "let it go as it such is" (LIGASIS) and "special treatment" (ST). The weight of ST can never succeed over 25%. Both sides win: the Books know which games to entrtapment and the PSGB (Pro Sports Governing Bodies) create an extra interest, rating and thus revenues from advertising, merchandising etc. If you have any doubt in what I say - you probably believe in fairy tales and in Santa as well. Very bold statement Billy Idol! If what you're saying here is true... mamma mia... I would move overseas if I were you... But I guess Madagascar is Overseas already
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Mick960	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: Caesars Palace \|
Prospect Joined: Jul 2012 Posts: 369 Location: New York	#8 Posted: 8/14/2012 10:07:31 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by whitewedding: Every day there is a commission called LVSC and they are the ones who consult the books about the lines and odds. Why they and not someone else? Because they're closely connected as with the pro sports governing bodies as MLB, NBA, NFL , NHL WNBA etc and the books. Since the Pro sports bodies have one goal only - making more profit every year and they know that without sports betting the interest in games will be lower - they cooperate closely with books through LVSC. So, the games are seaprated ona daily bases between the "let it go as it such is" (LIGASIS) and "special treatment" (ST). The weight of ST can never succeed over 25%. Both sides win: the Books know which games to entrtapment and the PSGB (Pro Sports Governing Bodies) create an extra interest, rating and thus revenues from advertising, merchandising etc. If you have any doubt in what I say - you probably believe in fairy tales and in Santa as well. "there is nothing pure in this world there is not a cure in this world start again"
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14allall41	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Dec 2011 Posts: 325 Location: United States	#9 Posted: 8/14/2012 10:12:31 AM keep it coming peoples, keep it coming. I really would like to have an intelligent discussion on this subject as what WHITEWEDDING said is very disturbing....
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Pasteur	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Veteran Joined: Jul 2012 Posts: 1887 Location: North Carolina	#10 Posted: 8/14/2012 10:23:47 AM Starting with NCAA basketball last season, I've tried paying particular attention to "shady lines". The lines that just don't add up and look too easy. I've noticed the same trend in baseball. From what I can tell, roughly 2 out of 3 shady lines are traps. So most of the time if it looks too easy, it is. Odds-makers know they can't make EVERY shady line cash in their direction however. It would be too easy of a pattern for us to pick up on and just bet against it. They don't want to condition us to correctly avoid the trap. So they're smart..after raping the public on a couple shady lines, they'll throw a gift back out to the public...a line that looks too easy but it really is just an easy play. They minimize their losses on these gifts because they know the psyche of a gambler...after getting burned on a couple shady lines the gambling public will hesitate to take the bait again. And then when the easy pick hits, J.Q. gambler has a sigh of relief and says to himself "see, I do know what I'm doing. I just got unlucky in those other losses". And he'll line up at the ticket window to step on the next land mine. Telling the real traps from what I call the fake traps isn't easy. In general though if you've noticed the public getting killed on a couple shady lines in a row, go ahead and bet the next play that looks too easy because it's likely the gift back to the public. And if that easy play hits, go ahead and go opposite of the easy play the next time or two. I made a nice profit in college hoops last season doing this. I wasn't always right and you can definitely over-think things, but I enjoy a challenge and have fun trying to figure them out Good luck
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14allall41	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Dec 2011 Posts: 325 Location: United States	#11 Posted: 8/14/2012 10:29:11 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Pasteur: Starting with NCAA basketball last season, I've tried paying particular attention to "shady lines". The lines that just don't add up and look too easy. I've noticed the same trend in baseball. From what I can tell, roughly 2 out of 3 shady lines are traps. So most of the time if it looks too easy, it is. Odds-makers know they can't make EVERY shady line cash in their direction however. It would be too easy of a pattern for us to pick up on and just bet against it. They don't want to condition us to correctly avoid the trap. So they're smart..after raping the public on a couple shady lines, they'll throw a gift back out to the public...a line that looks too easy but it really is just an easy play. They minimize their losses on these gifts because they know the psyche of a gambler...after getting burned on a couple shady lines the gambling public will hesitate to take the bait again. And then when the easy pick hits, J.Q. gambler has a sigh of relief and says to himself "see, I do know what I'm doing. I just got unlucky in those other losses". And he'll line up at the ticket window to step on the next land mine. Telling the real traps from what I call the fake traps isn't easy. In general though if you've noticed the public getting killed on a couple shady lines in a row, go ahead and bet the next play that looks too easy because it's likely the gift back to the public. And if that easy play hits, go ahead and go opposite of the easy play the next time or two. I made a nice profit in college hoops last season doing this. I wasn't always right and you can definitely over-think things, but I enjoy a challenge and have fun trying to figure them out Good luck Now, that's an amazing observation and analysis. Thanks man.
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Pasteur	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Veteran Joined: Jul 2012 Posts: 1887 Location: North Carolina	#12 Posted: 8/14/2012 10:40:49 AM One other thing..if it's going to be a game that draws heavy action, like a nationally televised Sunday night game, and the line looks too easy, go the opposite way. Out of the last 4 Sunday night games, the public lost 3 of them. The only one the public won was August 5th when the Cardinals beat the Brewers, and the line was juiced enough to get some action on the Brewers. But when I saw the line for the Braves/Mets game a couple nights ago, I pounded the Mets and didn't think twice about it, especially after the public won the previous Sunday night game.
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LockBurger	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Dec 2011 Posts: 1063 Location: Massachusetts	#13 Posted: 8/14/2012 10:44:22 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by kinggeorge27: Every Sunday night game, go opposite of the play. The Mets game was the perfect trap for the Braves chasers. I was very interested in this game, and picked the Mets in a pick'em thing I do for fun. But I didn't lay the first unit on this game. Sunday night always reeks of trap. King George is absolutely right, i've been doing the same thing. I've been taking the less sensible pick every sunday night and think it has hit like 12 of 14 times for me. Sheets on fire vs a shitty mets team, but the mets win. Kuroda on fire vs queen felix doubront and the sox win...
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Michfan15	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Captain Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 6929 Location: New York	#14 Posted: 8/14/2012 10:49:08 AM i think some of you guys are exaggerating or overanalyzing there simply aren't enough consistent bettors for vegas and lvsc to put out shady lines for baseball season nfl is another story, its loaded with shady lines and public entrapments
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austrian	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: bet365 \|
Prospect Joined: Apr 2012 Posts: 128 Location: Austria	#15 Posted: 8/14/2012 11:58:18 AM I suggest we start running a notebook on that in this thread starting today with the NYM@CIN as it is a a nationally televised game and second most popular game betwise. It is on ESPN here in Vienna so I assume it is a central game of today. CIN is a huge favorite.
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fsutomahawk	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Feb 2009 Posts: 3015 Location: Congo	#16 Posted: 8/14/2012 12:00:32 PM It's a trap
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KktdocT	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Covers Rehab Joined: Jan 2006 Posts: 60701 Location: United Kingdom	#17 Posted: 8/14/2012 12:01:52 PM straight games: they're straight alright. trap games: nonsense
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tahrir2011	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Sep 2011 Posts: 102 Location:	#18 Posted: 8/14/2012 12:10:57 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by KktdocT: straight games: they're straight alright. trap games: nonsense You're saying everything is straight and there are no trap games??? Ohohoh.... How old are you? Until what time are you allowed to use your computer? WAKE UP. Those are PROFESSIONAL SPORTS! Also there no fixes, point shaving, wise guys or any criminal activities, white collar or not to get your money using your weaknesses for gambling... Get outta here you dummy
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KktdocT	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Covers Rehab Joined: Jan 2006 Posts: 60701 Location: United Kingdom	#19 Posted: 8/14/2012 12:14:49 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by tahrir2011: You're saying everything is straight and there are no trap games??? Ohohoh.... How old are you? Until what time are you allowed to use your computer? WAKE UP. Those are PROFESSIONAL SPORTS! Also there no fixes, point shaving, wise guys or any criminal activities, white collar or not to get your money using your weaknesses for gambling... Get outta here you dummy ..................................................... i admit defeat, you win.
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ScreaminPain	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Dec 2005 Posts: 34 Location:	#20 Posted: 8/14/2012 12:15:49 PM The surrest way to identify a so-called "trap line" is to create your own line..... compare the two and bet when there is +EV ....pretty simple, actually
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kjmontalv	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: Stations \|
Prospect Joined: Jun 2011 Posts: 433 Location:	#21 Posted: 8/14/2012 12:48:08 PM The trap lines have nothing to do with the LVSC or shady mobsters making back door deals. Its a matter of PERCEPTION people and the statistics behind it all. Our perception as observers of the game tell us ATL and the red-hot Ben Sheets should crush a lowly and struggling Mets team. You can thank ESPN and social media for that folks. Moving on, if you had done your research properly, whether it be historical situations, trends, market data, or just hard cold facts, you would've viewed this game as a toss up. By Golly, the Mets won by 1 run, huh? I am not saying that you can't use these "trap lines" to analyze and ultimately help your own cause as a sports bettor, but enough with the conspiracies. Vegas wins no matter what. They create a product and we consume it.
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HutchEmAll	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Legend Joined: Jan 2004 Posts: 35056 Location: Minnesota	#22 Posted: 8/14/2012 12:51:06 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by ScreaminPain: The surrest way to identify a so-called "trap line" is to create your own line..... compare the two and bet when there is +EV ....pretty simple, actually How dare you bring logic into this thread. Really, people, if there was anything to this, someone would have invented a way to exploit a LONG time ago. Seen many, many "fade the public" losers come and go on this forum. None of them ever stick around long because it just doesn't work. When will people ever come to terms that there are no short cuts.
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HutchEmAll	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Legend Joined: Jan 2004 Posts: 35056 Location: Minnesota	#23 Posted: 8/14/2012 12:54:03 PM One other thing..if it's going to be a game that draws heavy action, like a nationally televised Sunday night game, and the line looks too easy, go the opposite way. ________________ Blows me away. So if you could get +200 on Texas tonight, you'd turn that down because it "looks too easy?" Where do these people come from?
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14allall41	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Dec 2011 Posts: 325 Location: United States	#24 Posted: 8/14/2012 1:07:03 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by HutchEmAll: How dare you bring logic into this thread. Really, people, if there was anything to this, someone would have invented a way to exploit a LONG time ago. Seen many, many "fade the public" losers come and go on this forum. None of them ever stick around long because it just doesn't work. When will people ever come to terms that there are no short cuts. With all due respect, there is no connection between the statement you'tr so eager to make about how smarter and more knowledgable than many of us you are - your highness - and between the subject of my thread. Read before you react. Read good. I didn't create this thread as a fade the public thread as you so anxious to prove. This thread is about finding a high probability tool to recognize TRAP LINE when it comes along and the only trap line I recognized among the comments examples is the Under on SF vs COL as someone has stated rightly so. Comprehension of a material you read should be a priority before your desire to get a smart behind reaction
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14allall41	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Dec 2011 Posts: 325 Location: United States	#25 Posted: 8/14/2012 1:08:36 PM I mean theb trap was to make us to take Over while the right bet was Under - correction to above comment of mine
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