8/12 - MLB Breakdown Sheets

@sicknesscity-

The reasoning behind your plays made me laugh. Sounds exactly the way my buddy describes why he makes his plays....He does alright for himself, it's not a bad hobby for him but a not a profitable one either. I have no input into if the Twins win or not, just wanted to say your reasoning is awesome

Well, I can do real analysis but sometimes baseball is about how the talent fares and whether managers actually know how manage a game.  The Rays struggle against lefties as a team but that was without Longoria's contributions.  Also, Shields faced the Blue Jays and Athletics over his last two starts.  Both of those teams suck at hitting, which invalidates some of the results.  I think the Twins have an edge in the game with Diamond pitching well lately.

I like the Diamondbacks because they can handle lefties, score more at home and Corbin has thrown two good starts in a row.  I don't really think Detwiler is as good as he's pitching and the advanced metrics show he's pretty much middle of the pack as a pitcher.  It's usually dangerous to go against a team on a winning streak.  In this case, I think it's safer because Detwiler has a terrible strikeout/walk ratio and is relying too much on pitching to contact.  If Corbin pitches a decent game, they should be able to take this one.

Thanks! I found it interesting what your model predicted on the ATL/NYM game.

Have you ever had a prediction of EXACTLY 50.0% for both teams and an EXACT even total (7.00)? Found it interesting.