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Author:	[MLB Betting] Topic: VegasPete's Saturday Value Plays (100-68 60% +$3138)
vegaspete	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Prospect Joined: Aug 2006 Posts: 142 Location: Nevada	#1 Posted: 8/11/2012 3:32:48 AM Going through my first rough patch but it is going to happen. I will also be putting one unit on a three fight UFC 150 parlay, just for fun, will not count it for the record (Henderson, Cerrone, & Stone for +263) My plays are based on games where I feel one team has a better chance to win than the odds indicate, it could be an underdog, or a large favorite, for now, as long as I feel a team is undervalued they will be a play. All plays are one unit, bet $100 on underdogs (i.e. bet $100 on +135 to win $135) and to win $100 on favorites (i.e. bet $155 on -155 to win $100). I kept track of my new method for making picks for a week before posting, but I am only counting posted plays toward my record and profit. Whenever possible, I will post my plays early enough so people can follow if they choose to do so. Good luck, on to today's plays... WEEK #1: 46-31, +$1673 (NOT POSTED) WEEK #2: 39-19, +$1322 (POSTED) WEEK #3: 46-29, +$1901 (POSTED) WEEK #4: MONDAY'S PLAYS (6-4, +$273) TUESDAYS'S PLAYS (6-4, +$154) WEDNESDAY'S PLAYS (4-4, -$128) THURSDAY'S PLAYS (1-3, -$314) FRIDAY'S PLAYS (5-5, -$70) SATURDAY'S PLAYS: PIT -170 STL +126 MIL -175 ATL -108 ARI -130 TOR +139 BOS -138 BAL -132 DET -143 LAA -220 NYY/TOR OVER 9.5 -110
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vegaspete	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Prospect Joined: Aug 2006 Posts: 142 Location: Nevada	#2 Posted: 8/11/2012 5:49:14 AM It did, but I have a little bit different criteria for determining value now, and I was betting more money per game and less games before. Most people think it is better to bet only a few of the best games for the day, as did I for a long time, but now I think it is better to bet almost all the games where you feel there is value. When betting only two or three games, luck (good or bad), is more of an issue. For example I had Pittsburgh last night, they were up 7-1, and I still feel it was a good play, but they ended up losing. With more games, as long as long as you are still only betting games with value, not just to play more games, the good and bad luck tends to even out, and in the end you will make a profit.
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vegaspete	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Prospect Joined: Aug 2006 Posts: 142 Location: Nevada	#3 Posted: 8/11/2012 6:13:23 AM And I think most people just bet on the teams they think will win, but if you bet a team that wins 60% of the time and the line is -150, you are only going to break even over time. If you bet a team that wins 40% of the time and they are +160, they will lose most of the time, but over time you will make money. It seems obvious, but a lot of people don't follow logic when betting. Also, many people will never bet a large favorite, but if a team is -195, and you feel they will win that game 72% of the time, meaning the break even line should be about -257, then you should be betting that game.
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shawty321	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Jul 2012 Posts: 686 Location:	#4 Posted: 8/11/2012 6:14:29 AM Angela at -231 on my book? Still grab it dude?
	Posted using a mobile device.quote
shawty321	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Jul 2012 Posts: 686 Location:	#5 Posted: 8/11/2012 6:15:55 AM Angels* lol
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vegaspete	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Prospect Joined: Aug 2006 Posts: 142 Location: Nevada	#6 Posted: 8/11/2012 6:19:04 AM Obviously, proper money management also plays a huge factor, only bet a few percent of your bankroll per game, and you will be able to outlast the losing streaks and continue making money when the winning picks back up, which will happen to even the best cappers. I also don't like betting 3 units on this game, and 1 unit on that game, etc, because you then you can go 2-1 and lose money. Might as well just not play the one unit games if you don't think they are profitable bets.
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vegaspete	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Prospect Joined: Aug 2006 Posts: 142 Location: Nevada	#7 Posted: 8/11/2012 6:20:56 AM @Shawty Your choice, every game can lose, but I would put that line around -280, so yes, for me it would still be a play.
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shawty321	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Jul 2012 Posts: 686 Location:	#8 Posted: 8/11/2012 6:21:27 AM Well I'm in dude!
	Posted using a mobile device.quote
vegaspete	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Prospect Joined: Aug 2006 Posts: 142 Location: Nevada	#9 Posted: 8/11/2012 6:30:39 AM I am a NY Giants fan, but just bought tickets and will be driving down to Phoenix to take another drunk trip down the Salt River, and attend the Seahawks @ Cardinals game on NFL's opening weekend. Thankfully, Giants play on Wednesday, so I won't have to miss their first game.
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Teaser78	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
All-Star Joined: Jan 2010 Posts: 12890 Location: New Jersey	#10 Posted: 8/11/2012 7:03:52 AM you know another factor to the bank roll is losing .. there is only value if you win ... the 3 time thiss fuckin wEek we have huge lead and lose a game darn you pirates! ... Dam yeSterday at 830 we were win every fuckin game so made at the pirates .. keep it up bro!! 2 day left we got this
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Teaser78	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
All-Star Joined: Jan 2010 Posts: 12890 Location: New Jersey	#11 Posted: 8/11/2012 7:16:05 AM ssorry drunk and no sleep my last post .. so if you
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Teaser78	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
All-Star Joined: Jan 2010 Posts: 12890 Location: New Jersey	#12 Posted: 8/11/2012 7:17:48 AM basically i was pissed at the tigers,pirates
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Teaser78	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
All-Star Joined: Jan 2010 Posts: 12890 Location: New Jersey	#13 Posted: 8/11/2012 7:20:34 AM is waver pitching fore the angles he is the only ond justifiviteda to preach chuinr g
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tuck321	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
All-Star Joined: Feb 2002 Posts: 13257 Location:	#14 Posted: 8/11/2012 7:44:54 AM Interesting discussion. But you are laying 75 cents with a Brewer team that has lost 10 in a row on the road and a pitcher that is 2-8 away lifetime. Houston this season is 26-31 at home as opposed to the Brewers who are 18-34 away. This seems like a rather bad investment.
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BigUnit	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
All-Star Joined: Sep 2008 Posts: 11209 Location: Nevada	#15 Posted: 8/11/2012 7:45:32 AM Waver?
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tuck321	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
All-Star Joined: Feb 2002 Posts: 13257 Location:	#16 Posted: 8/11/2012 7:47:59 AM I guess what I am saying is I like fading the Brewers on the road.
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Teaser78	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
All-Star Joined: Jan 2010 Posts: 12890 Location: New Jersey	#17 Posted: 8/11/2012 8:25:29 AM Its only a bad investment if it loses ... s
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shawty321	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Jul 2012 Posts: 686 Location:	#18 Posted: 8/11/2012 8:38:02 AM I'm going to the jays game today dude! So lets hope it's a good one! :)
	Posted using a mobile device.quote
shawty321	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Jul 2012 Posts: 686 Location:	#19 Posted: 8/11/2012 1:54:32 PM I literally hate the blue jays. Gonna get the double screw job
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Teaser78	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
All-Star Joined: Jan 2010 Posts: 12890 Location: New Jersey	#20 Posted: 8/11/2012 1:57:22 PM yea almost didnt put it in .. then i just went with it .. i feel some pain coming in our future ... i hate the jay also
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Teaser78	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
All-Star Joined: Jan 2010 Posts: 12890 Location: New Jersey	#21 Posted: 8/11/2012 1:57:52 PM l really need a winning day today
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Teaser78	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
All-Star Joined: Jan 2010 Posts: 12890 Location: New Jersey	#22 Posted: 8/11/2012 2:01:14 PM and with one swing of the the bat ... we in a garbage load of trouble ... really hope the jays come back in this game .. can we come back in a game instead of every friggin game they come back on us .. fuckkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk seriously hate betting against the yankees .
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Teaser78	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
All-Star Joined: Jan 2010 Posts: 12890 Location: New Jersey	#23 Posted: 8/11/2012 2:02:40 PM well lets hope the yanks score 10 runs and we get a split ... wont be to bad
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Teaser78	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
All-Star Joined: Jan 2010 Posts: 12890 Location: New Jersey	#24 Posted: 8/11/2012 2:43:26 PM we really not looking good ....this team blue jays team sucks balls ... really hate starting the day with 2 loses right off the back esp they way we have been going ..not a good sign . Really need a San Diego type rally here ..darn ..
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Teaser78	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
All-Star Joined: Jan 2010 Posts: 12890 Location: New Jersey	#25 Posted: 8/11/2012 3:07:06 PM PETE WHICH ONE OF THESE GAMES YOU LIKE THE MOST .....
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