| Author: |
[MLB Betting] Topic: 8/11 - MLB Breakdown Sheets |
|
si1ly |
 View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Banned
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 12061
Location: Florida |
#1 Posted: 8/11/2012 12:49:24 AM
8-11
|
|
quote |
|
VietBlonde |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 681
Location: California |
#2 Posted: 8/11/2012 12:54:38 AM Thanks for sharing MASTER si1ly!!! Also it's sooooo nice to see you do well again. Love tha parlay: bet $150 to win over $1000.00. That was awesome and real happy for you MASTER si1ly. Please keep up the great and awesome work. THANK YOU!!!
|
|
quote |
|
aaustinova67 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes | |
Veteran
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 1637
Location: Virginia |
#3 Posted: 8/11/2012 12:55:30 AM Looks good silly....thanks for the info!
Came in here to evaluate the Royals chances tomorrow....
I like em |
|
quote |
|
si1ly |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Banned
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 12061
Location: Florida |
#4 Posted: 8/11/2012 12:58:10 AM
Rain canceled our plans for south beach, but that just meant I got laid sooner and didn't have to blow $500 on champagne and cocktails. Now she's asleep and I can crack the laptop open to handicap tomorrow's games tonight. Must be my lucky night.
|
|
quote |
|
Albertcore |
RSI  |
Captain
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 8932
Location: |
#5 Posted: 8/11/2012 1:03:12 AM  Keep it up 
|
|
quote |
|
|
|
ETWINS |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 241
Location: |
#6 Posted: 8/11/2012 1:25:56 AM |
|
quote |
|
si1ly |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Banned
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 12061
Location: Florida |
#7 Posted: 8/11/2012 1:26:51 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Gordon Gekko:
Now get to work on 8-11 just kidding, but no really, I've got my lines up and see where they stand against yours...Here they are:
Cinc -134 SF -208 Burnett -181 LEE-139 Estrada -165 Medlen-103 Blanton-131 Miley-117 Nova-151 Morales-129 Tillman-133 Price-192 Verlander-134 Haren-209
CIN (-228) but I'll think of them as CIN (-200). I think you've undervalued the Reds. They have a lot of power hitting righties and Travis Wood has some of the worst numbers in the business against righties.
SFG (-140) but Colorado's offense is on a strong down-tick and the Giants on an up-tick. I'm thinking of this line closer to SFG (-180).
PIT (-124) but Burnett is pitching very well lately so I'm thinking of this line closer to PIT (-145). I think you may have over valued them a bit as their offense is not strong enough to be laying that kind of number. Marquis is also very effective against righties and Pittsburgh has too many of them in the line-up.
STL (-114) has the best offense in the majors against lefties. Westbrook has numbers only a half run lower than Lee... and the Cardinals offensive probability over the Phillies trumps the advantage the home team has in starting pitching and bullpen. I like the over in this game.
TBR (-141) Minnesota has the #7 ranked offense against lefties and they rank in the top 5 overall in the last 30 days so it's hard to see them as home dogs of much higher than +141. Even against a stud like Price.
|
|
quote |
|
si1ly |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Banned
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 12061
Location: Florida |
#8 Posted: 8/11/2012 1:37:04 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by ETWINS: Im always happy when I see u post the sheets the night before.THANKS Im looking at ny tommorow any thoughts?
The line looks pretty close to fair value. New York is probably the right side, but I don't see a very high margin of error / long term expected ROI with a bet like this. |
|
quote |
|
si1ly |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Banned
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 12061
Location: Florida |
#9 Posted: 8/11/2012 1:38:37 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by aaustinova67: Looks good silly....thanks for the info!
Came in here to evaluate the Royals chances tomorrow....
I like em
#9 ranked offense against righties. Solid bullpen. Tillman's numers suggest serious regression and his lines are bound to be over priced due to his unexpectedly low ERA. |
|
quote |
|
AlohaJoe |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 251
Location: Nevada |
#10 Posted: 8/11/2012 1:42:09 AM Thanks for your dedication & sharing |
|
quote |
|
si1ly |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Banned
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 12061
Location: Florida |
#11 Posted: 8/11/2012 1:43:52 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by VietBlonde: Thanks for sharing MASTER si1ly!!! Also it's sooooo nice to see you do well again. Love tha parlay: bet $150 to win over $1000.00. That was awesome and real happy for you MASTER si1ly. Please keep up the great and awesome work. THANK YOU!!!
Baseball is a grind. Even though I was losing it was important to maintain a positive mindset and long term outlook. I didn't change my style or chase my loses. I stayed the course and before long I go 6-1 (+5.5u) in three days and hit an unposted +3.35 unit parlay as the cherry on top. Made up for all the loses I had during the cold run that extended from last week into the beginning of this. |
|
quote |
|
Pasteur |
RSI  |
Veteran
Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 1887
Location: North Carolina |
#12 Posted: 8/11/2012 1:47:21 AM 
Love KC TT over tomorrow. Glad to see you think Tillman is due for an behind kicking.
Just one thing, you have Liriano as the Red Sox pitcher instead of Morales. 
|
|
quote |
|
Tone10 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 4929
Location: |
#13 Posted: 8/11/2012 1:52:25 AM
Good to see all of my plays are validated with your sheets.
Just an FYI... you have Liriano as the starter for the Red Sox instead of Morales. |
|
quote |
|
si1ly |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Banned
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 12061
Location: Florida |
#14 Posted: 8/11/2012 1:52:55 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Pasteur: Thanks silly! Love KC TT over tomorrow. Glad to see you think Tillman is due for an behind kicking. Just one thing, you have Liriano as the Red Sox pitcher instead of Morales.
I'll fix it in the morning, I'm retiring for the night. |
|
quote |
|
SJSharks99 |
RSI  |
Captain
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 9039
Location: California |
#15 Posted: 8/11/2012 1:55:14 AM |
|
quote |
|
WinSeeker |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 1783
Location: California |
#16 Posted: 8/11/2012 2:03:01 AM 
Nice picks today! Any chance of early picks?
|
|
quote |
|
tryme1234 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 332
Location: |
#17 Posted: 8/11/2012 3:12:45 AM  thanks |
|
quote |
|
duranizm |
RSI |
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 1218
Location: |
#18 Posted: 8/11/2012 5:49:38 AM 
|
|
quote |
|
keepitstrict |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports | |
All-Star
Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 11113
Location: Ontario |
#19 Posted: 8/11/2012 7:04:50 AM |
|
quote |
|
guil0000 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 257
Location: |
#20 Posted: 8/11/2012 8:34:48 AM
|
|
quote |
|
guil0000 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 257
Location: |
#21 Posted: 8/11/2012 8:49:19 AM 
|
|
quote |
|
CrimsonPix |
RSI  |
Prospect
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 66
Location: Massachusetts |
#22 Posted: 8/11/2012 9:05:07 AM  |
|
quote |
|
si1ly |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Banned
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 12061
Location: Florida |
#23 Posted: 8/11/2012 9:40:05 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by guil0000:
Silly I have a question for you a little off subject. If you could pick 5 pitchers to put your roll on at this moment who would they be.
TOP 30 PITCHERS LAST 30 DAYS
01 Dylan Axelrod 02 Jordan Zimmermann 03 Jason Hammel 04 Doug Fister 05 Adam Wainwright 06 Hiroki Kuroda 07 Madison Bumgarner 08 Matt Garza 09 David Price 10 Steve Johnson 11 Wade Miley 12 Johnny Cueto 12 Stephen Strasburg 14 Tommy Milone 15 Joe Blanton 16 CC Sabathia 17 Scott Feldman 18 Jarrod Parker 19 Felix Hernandez 20 Matt Harvey 21 Clayton Kershaw 22 Justin Verlander 22 R.A. Dickey 22 Roy Halladay 25 Josh Johnson 26 Francisco Liriano 27 Erik Bedard 28 Yovani Gallardo 29 A.J. Burnett 30 James Shields
These 5 guys are all performing at a very high current level and back that up with solid full season rankings in the key categories. Furthermore, Washington, Detroit, St. Louis, San Francisco and Tampa Bay are all teams on the way up. |
|
quote |
|
si1ly |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Banned
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 12061
Location: Florida |
#24 Posted: 8/11/2012 9:42:48 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by tryme1234: hey silly what you think about the under on the yanks game thanks
I think the line on the total is pretty accurate. No lean one way or the other here. Oddsmakers got this one correct. |
|
quote |
|
si1ly |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Banned
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 12061
Location: Florida |
#25 Posted: 8/11/2012 9:43:46 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by guil0000:
Thanks for the sheets, I'm thinking SD and/or the under among others
Both of those plays intrigue me. |
|
quote |