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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: SJSharks - Friday Bases
SJSharks99 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 8/10/2012 2:04:01 AM
Thursday 1-2: Had my first losing day in quite some time but I was definitely due for one sooner or later. The Marlins bullpen did me in late (not surprising though) meanwhile the Red Sox are just flat out awful. Got no one to blame though, those losses are on me. I salvaged some the day a bit with a win on the D'Backs/Pirates H+R+E O 26. Time to dig deep into Friday's slate.

49-30 Last 79 (62%)  26-13 Last 39 (66%)

ML: 79-75
RL: 23-14: (more of these)
Totals: 32-38-2: (taking a break from these)
Props: 12-13-1


Fridays Plays



Nationals ML (-123): Simply too good of a line to pass up on a confident group who are rolling right now. Strasburg will be taking the mound and is coming off one of his best starts of the year. Stras is a competitor and he knows they Nationals are gonna shutting him down when he reaches the predetermined inning amount. He is gonna wanna make everyone one these starts a statement game. He has made it quite clear (obviously) that he doesn't want to be shut down. The best way he can show the management what they will be missing is dominating starts. He will be facing a Arizona team who are swinging the bat well, however they will be returning home after a long road trip. Not saying it always happens, but lots of teams tend to come out flat in there 1st game home after a long road trip. Stras always he has done better on the road this year going 7-2 with a 2.49 era compared to his 5-3 3.47 era at home. Strasburg will be making only his 2nd career start vs the D'Backs with his 1st one being a 1 run, 3 hit, 5 inning performance. He will a huge advantage in familiarity going against a line up will very few guys with a couple plate appearances, most of the line up with be seeing the phenom for the 1st time. On the mound for the D'backs will be fat boy Trevill Cahill. Cahill has an decent 3.66 era in his last 3 starts, to go with a 9-9 record and 3.96 season era. Just like Stras he also has some major splits in his home #s vs away #s. But they will be working against him in this start. Cahill is 4-5 with a 4.87 era at home, compared to his 5-4 with a 2.88 era on the road. So beyond the HUGE pitching advantage, we have Stras owning on the road and we have Cahill sucking at home. And that to a better offensive, better bullpen and overall way better team... we have ourselves what should be a nice win at pretty good price.


Braves ML (-122) The red hot Braves winners in 12 of their last 15 games will head to New York to face the NL East overachievers of the year the Mets. We are approaching the middle of August and right on que the Mets are starting to fade and are seeing there record creep further and further below the .500 mark. This team seems to only want to win when Dickey pitches. Dickey accounts for 28% of the Mets wins, which is #1 in all of Baseball. Simply put, if Dickey isn't the starter then the Mets are good fade material. The Mets did salvage a game against the lowly Marlins on Thursday, but that's not something to brag about. This team played above there expectations in the 1st half and reality is kicking in big time. The Mets will have there hands full against their division rivals who will be looking to take advantage of the lowly Mets, in order to keep up with division leading Nationals and the wild card race. The Braves will be sending Paul Malholm to the hill in this one to square off against young rookie Matt Harvey. I watched Harvey pitch in his 1st 2 starts against Arizona and San Fran, and he had mixed results. This will be the biggest challenge yet, and I think he will struggle. Meanwhile Malhom should be able to take advantage of a Mets line up that simply doesn't scare anyone. The Braves #1 ranked bullpen will be a landslide favorite over the Mets bullpen (even though they have been playing better as of late). The low line on the Braves definitely is a factor to them being on the road in this game. However I feel just fine backing them on the road as they enter as of the best teams in all of baseball with a 32-20 mark. The Braves should continue to roll with a nice win in this one. Ill again bite on the low line with the much better team in almost every aspect of the game.


Yankees ML (-132): Nothing is ever easy in the world of sports betting, but backing the Yankees at decent lines is always something I try and do. The Yankees will head into Toronto to face a Jays team that is probably the coldest team in the American League and one of the coldest teams in all of Baseball. It's to be expected though because the Jays have had to deal with an absurd amount of injuries to both there starting pitching and there batting line up. They are simply extremely over matched in this game and they only thing they have going for them is the home turf. When looking at the starters in this game (Yankees Garcia) (Jays Romero), you would think the Jays would have a decent chance of producing runs against right hander Garcia. The only major question mark in that is the fact the Jays are batting a microscopic .158 as a team in there last 5 games vs righties. Meanwhile when you look at the other side the Yankees will have a huge advantage going against left hander Romero. The Yankees on the year are one of the best in all of baseball and they have been living up to those #s lately batting a red hot .389 vs left handed pitching. Beyond the offensive #s for each team, we have 2 pitchers heading in opposite directions. Freddy Garcia has improved in his last 3 starts going 1-1 with a 3.89 era, compared to his 5.00 season era. Meanwhile Romero's 0-3 with a 7.79 era, compared to his 5.47 season era. It doesn't take much to realize the only reason Romero is still starting in the big leagues is due to all the injuries the Jays in the pitching department. Better starter, better offense, better bullpen, better batting splits and overall complete mismatch. I think the Yankees roll here in a big way, fresh off 2 big wins in Motown.


Yankees RL (+120)
: for all the above mentioned reasons..
Playing both the ML and RL on the Yankees game as a pure double risk but allowing myself potential for a small profit with a split. The ML play will have more $$$ and if the Yankees only just win, ill make a small profit with the split. Assuming the roll, like I think they will it will be a nice payout with the bonus money coming in on the RL.





Friday's card has a lot of impelling lines and totals, but I feel very comfortable backing 3 of the elite teams in the MLB with favorable match ups and pretty good prices. No reason to force anything else


Best of luck to everyone, Let's kick the weekend off with a bang
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#2
Posted: 8/10/2012 2:05:27 AM
not sure why sometimes my #s get cut off or aren't the colors they are suppose to be... oh well
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#3
Posted: 8/10/2012 2:21:01 AM
Hey Shark, what do you rekon about taking STL tommoro with Lohse at the mound?
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#4
Posted: 8/10/2012 2:21:33 AM
GL in your plays btw, will tail you with the Yankees double.
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#5
Posted: 8/10/2012 2:24:53 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KSPatriot:

Hey Shark, what do you rekon about taking STL tommoro with Lohse at the mound?



I almost pulled the trigger on St Louis... I definitely see a lot of value in them as a dog. Just tough to figure out which Roy Halladay is gonna show up. probably worth a shot tho
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#6
Posted: 8/10/2012 2:25:12 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KSPatriot:

GL in your plays btw, will tail you with the Yankees double.



Thanks man... Go Yankees!!!
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#7
Posted: 8/10/2012 2:39:48 AM
Cheers bro, i appreciate your input!. Would pull the trigger on The Red Sox after checking stats, but i just cant do it after tonight.
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#8
Posted: 8/10/2012 2:44:02 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KSPatriot:

Cheers bro, i appreciate your input!. Would pull the trigger on The Red Sox after checking stats, but i just cant do it after tonight.



you won't see me touching a Red Sox side anytime soon, regardless of the # lol, ive been way better off fading them, that's been working haha

anytime on the input part, I love talking baseball, well sports for that matter
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#9
Posted: 8/10/2012 2:46:56 AM
great find on the yankees game, good luck on the others but I'm just gonna play that one tomorrow, even though Romero minimized damage against oakland he still walked 4 batters, yankees will make him pay tomorrow.. plus no arceibia, lind, lawrie, or bautista. I got a great feeling about this one and RL looks good too
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#10
Posted: 8/10/2012 2:47:17 AM

bol on ur card.

who is the broad?

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#11
Posted: 8/10/2012 2:48:35 AM
BOL like all of them.

but not sure with Ari, coz they can HIT just got burn twice on Nat RL when they play HOU on the road.

will try over on Cin and Tex game.

Also like Mia @ home play Dodger, as Dodger been slump recently.

any input?
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#12
Posted: 8/10/2012 2:50:45 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Bruins455:

great find on the yankees game, good luck on the others but I'm just gonna play that one tomorrow, even though Romero minimized damage against oakland he still walked 4 batters, yankees will make him pay tomorrow.. plus no arceibia, lind, lawrie, or bautista. I got a great feeling about this one and RL looks good too



thanks man, ya if Romero struggles at all the Yankees will make him pay dearly. He will have to be LIGHTS OUT in order for the Jays to keep close in this one. I simply don't see it happening. Yankees roll here. I have a good feeling too.. 7-3 Yankees
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#13
Posted: 8/10/2012 2:52:00 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by collegegambler:

bol on ur card.

who is the broad?




thanks

I get asked alot and I wish I knew... old picture and sadly can't remember her name
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#14
Posted: 8/10/2012 2:55:15 AM
i like the jays, but no miracle here tomorrow for them. probably take the over as well
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#15
Posted: 8/10/2012 2:55:16 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kentsm:

BOL like all of them.

but not sure with Ari, coz they can HIT just got burn twice on Nat RL when they play HOU on the road.

will try over on Cin and Tex game.

Also like Mia @ home play Dodger, as Dodger been slump recently.

any input?


Arizona can definitely hit but they have done much better against lefties then they have against righties. Stras will be one of the best righties they have seen all year. If the Nationals had a lefty going, I wouldn't be touching them against Arizona.

As far as your Miami/Dodgers question... That's a tough tough one. It's just tough to bet against Kershaw with the line up the Marlins are trotting onto the field. Both teams have struggled to score, I honestly think the Under is the best play in that game.
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#16
Posted: 8/10/2012 2:56:01 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kentsm:

i like the jays, but no miracle here tomorrow for them. probably take the over as well



bol... if i had a lean for a total, id say over as well
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#17
Posted: 8/10/2012 2:56:38 AM

kinda looks like stacy keibler to me

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#18
Posted: 8/10/2012 2:58:03 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by collegegambler:

kinda looks like stacy keibler to me



I think someone said that on one of my threads before, you might be right
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#19
Posted: 8/10/2012 2:58:12 AM
Gl bud. On yanks too. That jumped out at me. Hoping romero gets dusted for 5-6 which is likely. That is wise to stay opposite the bosox. They might get a little run going but they are flat out brutal to bet on this year. 
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#20
Posted: 8/10/2012 2:59:46 AM
BOL my man
Posted using a mobile device.
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#21
Posted: 8/10/2012 3:00:22 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Banner18:

Gl bud. On yanks too. That jumped out at me. Hoping romero gets dusted for 5-6 which is likely. That is wise to stay opposite the bosox. They might get a little run going but they are flat out brutal to bet on this year. 



good stuff man, go yankees!!!

and yep boston will be pure fade material haha




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#22
Posted: 8/10/2012 3:00:44 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by txtechpika:

BOL my man



thank you
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#23
Posted: 8/10/2012 3:05:21 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SJSharks99:



Arizona can definitely hit but they have done much better against lefties then they have against righties. Stras will be one of the best righties they have seen all year. If the Nationals had a lefty going, I wouldn't be touching them against Arizona.

As far as your Miami/Dodgers question... That's a tough tough one. It's just tough to bet against Kershaw with the line up the Marlins are trotting onto the field. Both teams have struggled to score, I honestly think the Under is the best play in that game.


thanks for you input.

BOL and Hail YANKEE




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#24
Posted: 8/10/2012 3:15:38 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kentsm:



thanks for you input.

BOL and Hail YANKEE







anytime... the marlins would be a nice dog play hit for sure, as a giants fan ill be rooting for the marlins to beat the dodgers

bol on whatever your decide
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#25
Posted: 8/10/2012 3:16:29 AM
Thanks Sharks!  Another so so day for me, winning on the NYY under thanks to si1ly and Katie Taylor's gold medal, but losing on Chi. and Balt./Atl under and covering with Pitt. in NFL.   Someone had Usain for the gold but price was ridiculous and USA for women's soccer gold but I did not follow.  Had opportunities in PGA too but was shy in pulling the trigger.  Tomorrow is another day and your card looks good.  May money line with some NFL or MMA.
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