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[MLB Betting] Topic: SJSharks - Wednesday Bases |
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SJSharks99 |
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#1 Posted: 8/8/2012 2:49:06 AM
45-27 Last 72 (62.5%) 
22-10 Last 32 (68.7%)
Season: 142-137-3 RL: 23-14
Totals: 31-37-2
Props: 11-13-1
Rangers ML (-101):
When I locked in my Rangers bet for Tuesday game with Dempster vs. Lester
for + money. I had to pause and ask myself what the hell is wrong with
this line. But sometimes it's better not to ask so many questions and
just accept it. So I decided to do just that and it resulted in a nice
win for me. In Thursdays game we have a similar situation. The line is
pretty low and the Rangers will have the pitching advantage again, this
time being Harrison against Beckett. Again similar questions arise from
the low line, but again im not gonna fight it and ill just accept it.
Harrison hasn't been quite as sharp in his last few outings but those
came against at the time a red hot Angels line up and a very hot White
Sox line up. He should have a much better chance at a good start vs a
Red Sox line up missing there biggest asset in Ortiz. Harrison has
pitched well on the road this year going an impressive 9-3 with a 2.99
era. His career 6.00 era against Boston might scare some people away,
but you have to take into consideration how much better the Red Sox line
up was in recent years compared to this line up. Harrison's biggest
nemesis has been David Ortiz who is batting .500 lifetime against him,
well good news Ortiz is obviously out. The next most fearful batter will
be Adrian Gonzales who Harrison owns, Adrian is batting .125 (1-8) and
has struck out 4 times. Carl Crawford will most likely pose as the
toughest challenge vs Harrison, Crawford is batting .360 (4-11). The
rest of the Red Sox line up doesn't look too promising. Mike Aviles
1-13, Elsbury 3-11, Pedroia 3-13, Jarrod S 1-6, Sweeney 0-3 and lastly
Cody Ross 0-1. The Red Sox will be countering with Josh Beckett who
just about faked an injury to leave his last start in inning number 3
with "back spasms". What will be his excuse in this one when the Rangers
get to him early and often. The Rangers already beat Beckett 2 weeks
ago in Texas. He was lucky to only allow 4 runs, as the Rangers had 9
hits in 7 innings. The entire Rangers line up have seen a TON of Josh
Beckett over the years and he will bring absolutely nothing to the table
that the Rangers haven't seen before. Even though he is struggling a
bit Hamilton is will pose a big threat batting .425 (8-20) lifetime
against Beckett with a pair of home runs. The Rangers line up features
lots of players with mixed bags when it comes to #s vs Beckett. But the
Rangers hitters will have a huge advantage in familiarity, compared to a
Red Sox line up featuring lots of guys with very minimal experience vs
Harrison. Both teams are tied on paper at #5 in the league in right/left
splits. The only difference is the Rangers line up will be the healthy
one. Ill take the better starter, the better and healthier line up, the
better bullpen and overall way better team. Call it a trap... Call it
whatever your like, I feel good about this play regardless of what the
final outcome will be. These 2 teams are heading in complete opposite
directions and I think Texas will get the job done.
Reds ML (-128):
I backed them in game 1 of this series as a dog and they failed to get
the job done. This made me stay far away in game 2 and I am thankful I
did. Well it's game 3 and I am ready to jump back on the Reds money
making bandwagon. The Reds will be sending Mat Latos to the hill to try
and avoid a sweep. This bodes well for the Reds, Latos will come into
this one feeling confident due to his 3-0 1.94 era in his last 3
outings. He is also coming off one of his best starts of the year in his
most recent outing against Pittsburgh. He has made 7 quality starts in
his last 8 outings. But 1 of those starts sticks out the most, On June
25th Latos through a complete game 1 run, 4 hitter, and struck out a
career high 13 batters... his opponent... the Brewers!!! A similar
outing to an extent wouldn't be out of the question due to the Brewers
being ranked near the bottom of the league against right handed pitching
(#21 overall). On the other side of the hill, The Brewers attempts of
the sweep will rest on the shoulders of 36 year old veteran Randy Wolf.
In his recent outings Wolf has struggled going 0-2 with a 5.40 era. His
major downfall has been the long ball, Wolf has allowed 5 home runs in
his last 3 starts. The #5 ranked offense against lefties the Reds will
have a very good chance at hitting a few long balls of there own in this
one. The Reds will obviously will have a landslide advantage in terms
of bullpen play. I expect the Reds to make Wolf pay with a few homers
early, Latos to have another strong outing and with Chapman delivering a
1,2,3 knockout punch to avoid the sweep.
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SJSharks99 |
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#2 Posted: 8/8/2012 2:49:25 AM
Cubs/Padres U7 (-120): I was pretty
torn on whether or not to include this play in my card. But the more I
looked into and crunched the numbers the more I kept circling back to
it. I finally decided to pull the trigger on it so we shall how it pans
out for me. The Cubs are ranked #29 in all of baseball vs lefties and
will be facing an improving south paw in Clayton Richards. The young
south paw is coming off 2 of his better starts of the year. He went 7
strong innings allowing just 1 run against the Mets in his last outing.
In his start prior he went 6 innings yielding just 2 runs to the
Marlins. A young pitcher relies on confidence and he should plenty
heading into this game. Beyond the Season woes for the Cubs against
lefties, they are batting just .192 in there last 10 games against
lefties. The Cubs will be sending Jeff Samardjiza to the hill in this
game. He is 1-1 with a 3.89 era in his last 3 outings. He has has had a
quality start in 5 of his last 6 outings, including a shutout and two 1
run allowed outings. He has only surrendered 4 home runs on the road all
season long and will have a very good chance of keeping it that way
when he pitchers in the #1 ranked pitchers park Petco field. He will be
facing the 16th ranked Padres lineup who are without one of there better
hitters, young catch Yasmani Alonso. Speaking of injuries, the Cubs
Alfonso Soriano left Wednesdays game with a right index finger injury
(lol) and he is VERY questionable to play in this game, especially with
it being a day game after Wednesay's night game. I already had many
reasons to like this under, but the added bonus off the Soriano not
being in the line up was one of the ultimate decisions to lock it in.
With 2 struggling offenses, 2 pitchers who have done well, and the
location of this game being Petco, I feel good knowing it will take 8
runs to beat me and I simply don't see that happening in this game.
Best of luck to everyone Wednesday... couple more work days until the weekend  |
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SJSharks99 |
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#3 Posted: 8/8/2012 2:50:57 AM 
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SJSharks99 |
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#4 Posted: 8/8/2012 2:56:29 AM
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SJSharks99 |
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#5 Posted: 8/8/2012 3:02:42 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by spidermonkey224: Hahaha...what are the odds? I was gonna sleep on the Yanks and Rangers, but then decided I'd likely lose some value by morning so I just locked them in. Now I see you are on them as well. 3/4 of our plays are the same. This should mean good things for us. 
always a good sign when we are on the same page
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tinfoils |
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#6 Posted: 8/8/2012 3:09:24 AM  |
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SJSharks99 |
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#7 Posted: 8/8/2012 3:10:39 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by tinfoils: Good luck SJS!
Tins |
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cashcow__360 |
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#8 Posted: 8/8/2012 3:18:29 AM
im going to parlay Yanks ML + Reds ML + Rangers ML
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SJSharks99 |
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#9 Posted: 8/8/2012 3:20:25 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by cashcow__360:
your write ups are great !
im going to parlay Yanks ML + Reds ML + Rangers ML
thanks man, i appreciate it
bol on the parlay
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johnnyb5783 |
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#10 Posted: 8/8/2012 3:20:36 AM
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SJSharks99 |
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#11 Posted: 8/8/2012 3:22:10 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by johnnyb5783:
love all those plays, im run lining the yanks and reds tho, straight up on the rangers BOL
thanks man, bol
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Kaka123 |
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#12 Posted: 8/8/2012 3:25:03 AM
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cashcow__360 |
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#13 Posted: 8/8/2012 3:27:27 AM
Yanks: send a southpaw against a team batting .200 L10 vs lefties ; #1 offence vs RHP
Reds: Latos' last game against the brewers was his career high in Ks, he plays them again ; Reds avoid the sweep and move toward october baseball.
Rangers: as you put it Shark these two teams are heading in opposite directions. As far as im concerned (and as of late) Harrison is definitely an ace of the rangers rotation. he has not had to many bad games. Josh becket is gonna be a bucket by the time this season is done. it will continue 2moro. the hits for the rangers will come in bunches.
Consider a small play on those 3, all to have the most hits...with the pitching match ups in place, it does seem to be a good bet.
best of luck of my man.
and thanks for the reassurance on the plays !
catch ya later |
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SJSharks99 |
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#14 Posted: 8/8/2012 3:27:30 AM |
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#15 Posted: 8/8/2012 3:27:37 AM  |
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SJSharks99 |
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#16 Posted: 8/8/2012 3:29:32 AM |
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SJSharks99 |
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#17 Posted: 8/8/2012 3:29:52 AM |
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lSHOTBlGGlE |
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#18 Posted: 8/8/2012 3:33:12 AM |
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cprende2 |
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#19 Posted: 8/8/2012 3:34:09 AM Rangers, Yanks, Reds all great bets GL |
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SJSharks99 |
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#20 Posted: 8/8/2012 3:42:03 AM
Cprends: thank you |
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#21 Posted: 8/8/2012 4:28:26 AM
! |
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cashcow__360 |
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#22 Posted: 8/8/2012 4:29:42 AM
Rangers 6-2 in the last 8 meetings. Rangers are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Boston. Road team is 16-5 in Nauerts last 21 Wednesday games behind home plate. Rangers are 9-0 in Harrisons last 9 road starts vs. a team with a losing record
Reds 4-1 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series. Reds are 9-2 in their last 11 road games. 9-1 L10 as road favs. 10-2 Latos L12 as a fav. 4-1 as a road fav. 8-2 L10 against team with losing record. Reds 5-0 L5 road games vs LHP. 6-0 L6 vs LHP. The umpire Angel Campos heavily favors the home team; but Reds are 6-2 L8 with him calling the strikes.
Yanks Throwing most of the stats out the window on this one, except 'Yankees are 23-7 in their last 30 games with Umpire Bill Welke behind home plate.' Sanchez and CC are not comparable by any means. CC has given up 4 or more runs only twice in his L10 games & CC always goes deep into games. Regardless, with all that said i do keep in mind [ the 10 HRs hes given up to Det hitters + Miggy vs CC .425 (23ab,10h,2hr,12rbi,4bb,4k) ] |
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chasedown |
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#23 Posted: 8/8/2012 4:53:41 AM are those three really really solid plays? i got beat earlier, 20K :(
need some winners. thanks! |
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SiMbEcK11 |
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#24 Posted: 8/8/2012 4:56:43 AM |
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Orangemen44 |
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#25 Posted: 8/8/2012 4:57:12 AM |
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