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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: SJSharks - Monday Bases
SJSharks99 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
SJSharks99
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#1
Posted: 8/6/2012 3:09:58 AM
Sunday 5-1: Couldn't have asked for a better finish to a really good week. The Nationals and Tigers (miracle) and Cardinals all covered the RL. The Pirates dog play came through nicely, and the Cardinals nailed both the ML and RL plays for me in the night cap. This day was pretty sweet, and it was almost even sweeter with my 6 team parlay just missing with the Rays losing in extra innings to the O's. I am very happy though, it's always nice to cap off the week with a strong day, leading into Monday.


39-24 Last 63 (61.9%) 


16-7 Last 23
(69.5%)


Season:136-134-3
ML: 74-72
RL: 22-13
Totals: 29-36-3 
Props: 11-13-1


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#2
Posted: 8/6/2012 3:10:28 AM



Braves ML (-118): It's hard not roll with this team right now, they are clicking on all cylinders are breathing down the necks of the Nats for the AL East division lead. They are also the current wild card leaders in large part to there current 10-2 run they are on. The Braves will be facing a depleted Phillies squad who they just swept last month. Could revenge be a factor? Sure, but just because a team is seeking revenge, doesn't exactly mean they will get it. At the end of the day they still have to actually play the game and get it done on the field. This is a tough task for the a team with a very depleted line up and shaky pitching. The Phillies will be sending Vance Worley to the mound to attempt to stop rain on the Braves parade. On the year Worley is 6-6 with a 3.63 era, but he has struggled at home this year going 2-3 with a 4.72 era. He has a whip of 1.50 in home starts, while giving up 23 free passes in just 53 innings of work. He has surrendered 7 home runs in 9 home starts, including allowing home runs in 4 of his last 5 home starts. An elevated WHIP and vulnerability to the long ball will pose as a serious problem vs a Braves team who is swinging the bats very well lately and have a line up full of people capable of hitting home runs. It wouldn't be a far fetched to think Worley gives up 2 home runs in this game. The Braves are ranked #8 in the league vs right handed pitching on the year and are only getting better. The Braves as team have had success against Worley (in a small sample size). Bourn, Heyward, Freeman, Jones, McCann and Uggla are batting a combined .350 (14-40) with the hits pretty evenly distributed amongst them. On the hill in this game for the Braves will be Ben Sheets, who will look to continue upon what has been a successful return to the big leagues. Sheets enters this contest with a 3-1 record and a 1.46 era. This guy has poured his heart and soul into all 4 of his outings so far. I have watched all 4 of his starts and have seen how focused and determined he has been. He truly looks like he is doing all he can to be a big part in this playoff run for the Braves. He is definitely making the most of this opportunity based on his numbers so far this season. In his 4 starts, he has yet to allow a home run, his command has been good only allowing 6 walks (1.5 a game), while striking out 23 (5.7 a game). His WHIP did rise to a 1.22 after allowing a 11 hits in his last outing vs Miami. I fully expect this season veteran to have a strong bounce back performance in this affair. He will face a Phillies team who ranks in the middle of the pack against right handed pitching (#16). Sheets is also 1 month removed from a strong outing vs the Phillies, who have only gotten worst line up wise since then. In the July 8th outing against the Phillies, Sheets went 6 strong innings, allowing just 1 run, on 6 hits, and 1 walk, en route to a 6-1 Braves victory.  In the later stages of the game the Braves will have a huge advantage. The Braves enter this contest ranked #1 in the bullpen, meanwhile the Phillies are again in the middle of the pack ranked #16. The Braves will have the better line up, the better starting pitcher and the better bullpen heading into this game. I can't even say the Phillies have the advantage being home in this game honestly. Sure they might be at home, but they are 7 games below .500 with a 23-30 home record this year. Meanwhile the Braves are one of the best in all of baseball with a road record of 30-20. This is another big game for the Braves with lots of implications riding with there own division and the wild card race. I like there chances of a getting a W.



Reds ML (+121): The hottest team in baseball loses a game and they instantly become an underdog against a Brewers team who is playing terrible baseball lately. Granted, I realize the Reds are the dog in this game because of the pitching advantage on paper for the Brewers. I am set to challenge that advantage though, because the Reds have had a ton of success against Gallardo. Let's start with the "least" productive out of the group Drew Stubs, he is batting .227 (5-22), with 4 of those hits being XBH, Brandon Phillips is batting .278 (9-33), with 4 of those being XBH, then we start to really heat up, Ryan Ludwick is batting .353 (6-17) with 3 of those being home runs, Scott Rolen is batting .381 (8-21) with 3 of those being XBH, then last but not least we have Jay Bruce, who is batting .462 (12-26) with 4 of those being XBH. The heart of the line up for the red hot Reds team has crushed Gallardo. Then you add in the wild card rookies Cozart and Heisy, and it could spell a long day for Gallardo and the Brewers. Not too surprising Gallardo is 4-5 with a 5.04 era vs the Reds, and plenty of guys not named Joey Votto have been contributing factors. In a July 21st start this year Gallardo lasted just 5 innings, allowing 4 runs on 9 hits and ended up on the losing end of a 6-2 score. Gallardo has also struggled big time in his last 3 outings going 1-2 with a 6.11 era. He has also allowed home runs in 5 straight games. That could be a recipe for disaster for a team more then capable of hitting the long ball, especially with a line up full of people who have done just that vs Gallardo. Meanwhile, the Reds will be countering with Bronson Arroyo. Let me be the first one to say, I am not a big Arroyo fan for obvious reasons. That being said, it took a lot of digging for me to really wanna make this play. But I was happy to see that Arroyo has had pretty good success against the Brewers. In 24 career contests Arroyo is 13-8 with a 3.67 era. He also had a good outing vs the Brewers on July 21st of this season. In that start he went 6 innings, allowing just 2 runs on 5 hits, while walking 2 and striking out 6 in a 6-2 home win. Bronson also enters this game on a probably his hottest run of the season, he is 3-0 with a 2.89 era in his last 3 outings. Bronson has also enjoyed pitching on the road this season where he is 5-4 with a 3.39 era, but a low WHIP of 1.10 compared to his 1.40 WHIP at home. The Brewers will have a slight advantage in terms of rankings against right handed pitching. The Reds enter as #20, and the Brewers enter as #11. But for all the reasons mentioned above, I think the hottest team in Baseball will be able to overcome that. As the line has indicated, this could be a very close game. In the later stages of the game when the bullpen comes into play, you gotta love the HUGE advantage the Reds will have. The Reds rank #2 just behind Atlanta, meanwhile the Brewers rank #18, but lately they have been even worst then that. I expect the Reds to have the lead in this one, but if they are losing late in this one, I like the added advantage of going against the Brewers bullpen. The Reds are the road this year have had success and their 30-22 mark ranks them as one of the best. During there current 15-2 run, the Reds have won 9 in a row on the road. Travel should play no factor in this one, with both teams having short flights after there Sunday contests. Only small benefit from the Reds who had a afternoon game and the Brew crew playing a late Sunday Night Baseball game and arriving in the Wisconsin area much later.

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#3
Posted: 8/6/2012 3:10:41 AM
Orioles ML (-129): The Orioles will return home feeling good after they just finished taking 2 out 3 from the Rays. Both of the wins were backed by strong starting pitching, as they were able to shut the Rays out in both games. The achilles heal for this team has been there starting pitching. In the first half of the season they were getting quality starts. In the 2nd half of the season, those quality starts have been few and far between which has made this O's team very hard to figure out. In this contest they will be sending Chris Tillman to the mound. He is a young pitcher who for the most part has done a pretty darn good. He enters this game with a 4-1 mark and a 2.70 era. In his last 6 stats, he has only allowed 2 runs or less in 4 of his last 5 outings. The only time he didn't was when he allowed 4 runs to the Yankees, but they obviously can score 4 runs vs anybody. Tillman will be making just his #2 start at home, so his splits are way too small of a sample size. He has already faced the Mariners 1 time this year on July 4th and it was his best outing of the year. In that start he went 8 scoreless innings, holding the M's to just 2 hits and striking out a season high 7 batters, a game the O's won 4-2 in Seattle. One of the major reasons Tillman was able to have so much success vs the M's line up was in large part due to the fact the M's are a league worst 30th ranked offense against right handed pitching. On the other side of the mound in this game will be the Mariners Jason Vargas. On the year Vargas a solid 12-7 with a 3.71 era. However his home/away splits are a huge discrepancy that will be to the advantage of the O's. Vargas home era at the pitcher friendly park in Seattle is 2.62, but if you take him out of his natural habit, his era sky rockets to 4.67. Vargas is hot coming into this one but his last 5 outings all came against teams who aren't exactly offensive powerhouses. He squared off against an injury riddled Jays line up, an awful KC lineup, a Rays line up who just got shutout twice in a row by the O's, KC again, and the A's who batting .200 as a team. The O's line up isn't nothing to write home about, but they have much better options in the line up for producing runs. The O's will have a big advantage being #16 in the league against southpaws vs. the M's #30 ranking against right handed pitching. The O's should have lots of confidence heading into this game. After taking 2 out 3 from the Yankees, they followed that up with 2 out 3 from the Rays, including winning the last 2 in shutout fashion. After the dust settled on this weekends games, the O's find themselves just 1 game back in a very wild AL Wild Card race, and this is a game they can't take lightly. I expect them to have a strong performance and the end result being a nice win.



White Sox RL (-105): The White Sox have to be feeling good after taking 2 out 3 from the visiting Angels. The only loss came in extra innings, in a game that could have gone either way. In all reality all 3 games could have gone either way, but the White Sox found a way to come out on the right side in 2 of them. The White Sox won't have any time to let there guard down as they welcome the KC Royals. The White Sox are in a thick divisional race with the red hot Tigers and they simply can't afford to take any games lightly. In this contest they will turn to their ace Chris Sale, who should be feeling fresh and eager to take the hill after missing his last outing to rest a tired arm. Sale's numbers have fallen back to earth lately, but that's to be expected a bit from a young pitcher.The one area where he hasn't seen that much of a decline is his performances at home. Sale is 5-2 on the year with a 1.63 era. His last 2 outings that he struggled in both came on the road. His WHIP at home this year is a fantastic 0.83, and he has also only allowed 2 home runs all season at home. He has faced the 2012 Royals twice this year, in his last outing he allowed just 1 run, and in the outing prior he allowed 3 runs. The south paw should have a high probability of being successful against a KC line up that ranks near the bottom in in the league against lefties ranked being the #20 ranked offense. The Royals will be sending Luis Mendoza to the mound in this game and he is slowly starting to fade. In his last 3 outings Mendoza era has reached a 4.34 and he has allowed 20 hits in just 18 innings of work. His strike out to ball ratio has also declined having just 8 Ks while allowing 6 free passes. The White Sox will have a slight advantage ranking #14 against right handed pitching. The Royals will have the advantage when it comes to the bullpen with a (#8 to #20 rating) but I am pretty confident that Sale will go deep into this ball game and will hand the rock over to a usually reliable Reed to close it out. The White Sox will have a nice benefit in being at home in this game due to the Royals road struggles that have really compounded lately. The Royals are 3-17 in there last 20 road games. Meanwhile the White Sox have been very good run at home lately going 12-3 in there last 15 home games. The White Sox have also covered the RL in 7 straight home wins. I expect the White Sox to take advantage of the momentum they have heading into this one and backed by a strong performance from Sale, they should be able to win this game by at least 2 runs.



That will be all for my Monday card, I got another busy Monday at work ahead of me. Ill try and pop in as much as I can throughout the day. Best of luck to everyone and let's kick the week off on a winning note.
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#4
Posted: 8/6/2012 3:11:57 AM
I apologize for any spelling/grammar errors, and I don't know why the blue didn't show up on the top page... oh well, time for some much needed
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#5
Posted: 8/6/2012 3:16:43 AM
I also threw a couple bucks on the 4 of them as a little parlay...


pays 12.79 to 1

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#6
Posted: 8/6/2012 3:17:29 AM
BOL SJ!!! Solid write ups! Get that !!!!
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#7
Posted: 8/6/2012 3:18:25 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by slicethebread7:

BOL SJ!!! Solid write ups! Get that !!!!



thanks man... hope so
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#8
Posted: 8/6/2012 3:23:32 AM
How long does it take you to type that much garbage?
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#9
Posted: 8/6/2012 3:26:48 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LanceLogan:

How long does it take you to type that much garbage?



well I am usually doing research, as I am working on my write ups, so id say like 2-3 hours of doing both. thankfully I am quick typer haha
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#10
Posted: 8/6/2012 3:30:07 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LanceLogan:

How long does it take you to type that much garbage?


honestly it's a lot of work, but the results have been good, so I gotta just keep plugging away. the writes ups is a more of confirmation to myself more then anything about the play I am making
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#11
Posted: 8/6/2012 3:44:07 AM
friggin rights it's alot of work, too much. Good luck tomorrow.
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#12
Posted: 8/6/2012 3:50:31 AM
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#13
Posted: 8/6/2012 3:52:19 AM
Hahah thanks Lance

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#14
Posted: 8/6/2012 3:52:52 AM
Thank you Smith - you were Mia on Sunday
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#15
Posted: 8/6/2012 4:07:13 AM
Haha.. Your write ups are too long now man! Lol I'm usually convinced after the first few sentences... 

I am leaning a bit differently than you today on couple plays, however I have only gazed through my match-up research.. Looks like Chipper Jones won't be playing for the Braves tomorrow, but they may not need him with the way the Phillies have been inconsistently playing. I was initially leaning towards the hot Mariners team against Baltimore, but I may just have to read through your whole write up now incase I am missing out on any key insight information.. 

Reds ML 
Whitesox RL 

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#16
Posted: 8/6/2012 4:07:39 AM
Sj- I know man, I've had alot going on, in the process of getting a new place and stuff like that  . I'll settle down soon tho. Looks like you have been destroying the books . Keep it up
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#17
Posted: 8/6/2012 6:05:15 AM
nice work 

good luck today 
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#18
Posted: 8/6/2012 6:19:59 AM
Good luck shark, always appreciate the I.depth analysis.
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#19
Posted: 8/6/2012 6:51:08 AM
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#20
Posted: 8/6/2012 6:59:28 AM
First bet was Seatte.  Will look at the rest.  Gl
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#21
Posted: 8/6/2012 7:11:07 AM
Respect Shark!
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#22
Posted: 8/6/2012 7:18:50 AM

GL today SJS - appreciate the information

 

Cheers

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#23
Posted: 8/6/2012 7:27:12 AM
liking the reds! good luck shark!
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#24
Posted: 8/6/2012 8:13:13 AM
Great job 
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#25
Posted: 8/6/2012 8:16:36 AM
great insight shark...good luck, I.m on all your picks 
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