Posted: 5/30/2012 12:11:36 PM
YTD 85-80 +20.83
CLV (Closing Line Value): +20.46
CLV Profit (Actual Units Won/Saved by Beating Closing Line): +8.26
As always, I am capping the line, not the matchup. My only goal is to beat the closing number by betting early before the market sets itself. If I do that consistently, I believe I will be profitable. Along with my units I will be tracking CLV (total units I have beaten closing line) and CLV Profit (actual units won or saved by betting early instead of waiting for the closing line).
After numerous walkoff homeruns against me over the Holiday weekend I got one to swing my way, as Josh Willingham crushed a 3-run bomb into the bullpen to cash my Twins +110 bet. Card only ended up as a split though as my O's wager did not come through. Ended up 1-1 and picked up some spare juice.
Hoping I can put together a winning day with the card below. A 2-2 split would be fine with me. As always, bets were made after BetOnline and BetCris opened and were posted in my Tuesday thread.
951 San Diego Padres +135
954 Pittsburgh Pirates +120
973 Baltimore Orioles +145
975 Detroit Tigers +135
Too much respect for Dempster and not enough respect for Bass in the opening line of -145/+135 for SDG/CHC. Bass just closed +100 to Dillon Gee and the Mets in New York... would Dempster be laying any road chalk in New York against Gee and the Mets? Maybe -110, at best -115, and even then you're still only talking about a 15 cent difference between Bass and Dempster. That would mean -135/+125 for the Cubs today, but in reality even that may be a bit too high. +135 was too much value to pass up on the Padres. Current Line is Padres +110.
Johnny Cueto to me is one of the more overrated pitchers in baseball, and he consistently gets inflated opening numbers. I don't think he should be laying -130 road chalk against a guy like A.J. Burnett. That would mean -170 if this game were in Cincy, and when you consider Cueto just closed -155 against Christian Friedrich and the Rockies, I think that's a bit unreasonable. A Burnett/Friedrich matchup would probably result in -120 for whoever the home team is... there isn't much difference between the two, so if Cueto is -155 at home to Friedrich he should be -155 to Burnett at home as well. This means something closer to a -115/+105 line for Cincy tonight. Like the +120 for Burnett here. Current line is Pirates +110.
Like yesterday's BAL/TOR game another high opener for the Jays. I lost yesterday's O's bet, and while it seems like they're heading for a slide I could not in good conscious pass up a ridiculous +145 with Jason Hammel. Morrow is good, but Hammel has been getting much respect from the sharps, with strong closing lines of -105 @ Washington against Detwiler and -125 at home against a formidable pitcher in his own right in Bruce Chen. I simply don't think Morrow would be laying -115 road chalk against the O's and Hammel if this game were at Camden Yards, which is what the -155/+145 opener was suggesting. Current line is Orioles +125.
What's wrong with Jon Lester? He's struggled for much of the year, and in his last start he closed only -145 at home against Alex Cobb and the Rays. The opener of -145/+135 for tonight's game suggests that Smyly and Cobb are equal. Doesn't make much sense to me, as Smyly is probably the better pitcher and the Tigers possess a superior lineup than the Rays. If this game were in Detroit I doubt you would see the Red Sox laying road chalk... rather you'd probably see Detroit as a slight favorite of -110 or so. I jumped on the +135. Current line is Tigers +115.
Good luck today everybody.