Posted: 5/27/2012 11:06:36 AM
Nothing tricky about today's plays. Sometimes square plays are the right plays.
Tribe/ChiSox o9 (-120) - Let's start w/ Ubaldo (5.02 ERA, 5.79 xFIP). His ERA is high and his xFIP confirms that he is just simply pitching bad. His control is horrible 6.58 BB/9 and he is only striking out 5.19 batters per 9. He faces the hottest hitting ballclub in majors today. This alone is almost reason enough to take the over but wait.. there's more. For the Tribe, Gavin is a quality pitcher and capable of throwing gems here and there, but this year he has been average at best (4.66 ERA 4.11 xFIP). His GB% is down from previous years also. If the Sox don't take care of the total by themselves, the Indians should be able to help them out with a few runs of their own.
Rays/RedSox o10 (-110) - This is almost the same exact play as above. With the Total opening at 10 (after a low scoring game), lines makers are telling us there will be fireworks. To me, they want you to see that 10 and Hellickson's 2.73 ERA and think UNDER. Don't be fooled. Hellickson's xFIP of 4.40 suggests negative regression. However, last year his ERA stayed under 3 despite his higher xFIP. Pitchers don't always regress the way the stats suggest they should. In Hellickson's case, it prob can be attributed to TB's stellar defense. Doesn't matter though, Bucholz has been awful (7.84 ERA, 5.35 xFIP). His xFIP suggests his ERA should come down a little from being almost 8, but does it really matter? After facing the pitchers they saw yesterday, these two heavy hitting lineups will think they are playing little league.
Giants/Marlins o7 (-130) - Gamblers only need apply. Again, this is the new Marlins Park and more runs are being scored here than any other this year. I don't know why, Marlins aren't slouches, but they are by no means the best hitting ballclub in the league. Looks like a high rate of Hits, Triples, and Walks. Idk if its the surroundings (that crazy sculpture), or what. To me, it seems nobody is accounting for the park factors yet. Bettors nor Linesmakers. Granted, it is way too early and not sufficient data yet to claim this to be the best hitter's park in history and thats why its a gambler's bet. The runs scored could go down, but they could also go UP still. Cain for the Giants is a top notch pitcher and much better than Nolasco imo, and I really want to play the Giants here, but early line movement has scared me off. Just checked the %s, public is betting the over. I'm riding it with them today.
Nationals +115 Beachy has been great, but Gio has been even better. Beachy hasn't been as sharp lately either, according to his advanced splits. Washington's bats are much hotter and bullpens have been equal. Value is on the dog here imo, so I'm playing it.
Phillies - I don't like the line movement, but I don't give a rat's behind on this one. For the most part, im considering starting pitching equal. The advantage here lies in the bullpens. And its HUGE. In the last 14 days, the Phillies relievers rank #1 in the league. Just look at these numbers: 1.98 xFIP 2.02 tERA and 1.41 SIERA. The Cards rank 2nd to last: 4.51 xFIP 5.11 tERA and 4.25 SIERA. But the Cards have better bats right? Probably, but not so fast. Also looking at the last 14 days, Phillies rank 4th in the league while Cards are closer to mid-pack. Not only that, but Kendrick pitched a complete game shutout against them last night. Could this be a sign that the Cards bats are about to slump? In any case, if this turns out to be a close game and the bullpens get involved; my money is on the hot bullpen arms from Philly.
Time to go to war on the diamonds
I'm also eyeing that UNDER in Citi Park again
now that its moved up to 7.5
mlb 21-10 67.7% +11.68u
NHL 34-38 47.2%-0.70u
NFL 40-39 50.6% -0.15u
CFB 188-129 59.3% +46.00u
CBB 51-39 56.6%+8.00u
NFLx 15-11 56.6%+2.80u
MLB Playoffs 24-13 64.8%+13.74u