Thursday 05/24 MLB (YTD 77-69 +22.58)

YTD 77-69 +22.58

CLV (Closing Line Value): +18.05

CLV Profit (Actual Units Won/Saved by Beating Closing Line): +7.78

As always, I am capping the line, not the matchup. My only goal is to beat the closing number by betting early before the market sets itself. If I do that consistently, I believe I will be profitable. Along with my units I will be tracking CLV (total units I have beaten closing line) and CLV Profit (actual units won or saved by betting early instead of waiting for the closing line).

Things started off rough yesterday, losing two day games in extra-innings (Blue Jays and A's). Rallied a bit somewhat in the nightcap by cashing with the Indians and Diamondbacks but losing with the Cubs. All in all, a 2-3 day losing less than a unit so nothing catastrophic.

Only one play today.

Thursday 5/24

963 Los Angeles Angels -120

Let me preface this by saying I hate this play. I have no idea why I played it, my projections had this one higher but in my heart of hearts I knew my line was probably inflated. I can count on one hand the number of times I have layed road chalk this year. I hate doing it, and still have no clue why I did it tonight. Was probably just trying to force a play on a short card. Anyways, what's done is done so we'll roll with it.

Good luck to everybody today.

 E, switch, cat, tin, AA

Two plays thus far for tomorrow after BetOnline opened:

Friday 5/25

Cleveland Indians +115

Colorado Rockies +160

Thanks, fellas.

Added one more play for tomorrow.

Friday 5/25

Cleveland Indians +115

Colorado Rockies +160

Texas Rangers -125

good luck man

Quote Originally Posted by switchwalk:

Toneski surprised you didnt bite on nats+140

what you got on Friedrich to take a shot there? i know your capping the number, but you must have something on this kid that you think the price is skewed.

Shame that danks got put on the DanksList cuz your number is oh so juicy

Looks good bud 

Oh man... certainly not pleased when I found out Danks was going to the shelf and my +115 went down the drain. Shame of it is the Indians were already down to +101 at Pinnacle before the news hit. Nothing I can do.

Regarding Friedrich... I was shocked at the really strong line he got against Vargas. I bit on the M's in that game at +150 (and won the bet) but it steamed all the way up to +165. The books are certainly giving him tons of respect, and he was one of the Rockies top pitching prospects.

Because I was skeptical of that line against Vargas, I used his closing number of -105 at Vogelsong as my barometer. And I started to think what Cueto would be on the road against Vogelsong... my guess is something like -130. Certainly seems about right, I don't think he would be laying more chalk than that. So a starting line of -105, plus the 25 cent difference between Cueto and Friedrich, but another 20 cents for home field gave me a line of 150/+140 for the Reds. I certainly think the -170 line was way too high against a pitcher the books seem to like in Friedrich.