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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: shut up with the "No Value" bullshit
SoundOfBrooklyn send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 5/24/2012 11:25:04 AM
i hate when people are saying "theres no value on verlander, juice keeps going up." If a team is going to win they are going to win. So what if you lose 10 more dollars in a spot where you think a team should win. Detroit is not worth taking because now they are -170 instead of -160???? That sounds retarted to me. If you think Cle is the better team and were iffy on the bet then I understand not taking detroit when the price goes up. but for people who see a win with verlander on the mound just shut the darn up with the juice talk and take detroit to bust out in this one. the only time there is "VALUE" in baseball is on an underdog that the price is getting better to take. Value doesnt go away in a spot where you think theres a win. 
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#2
Posted: 5/24/2012 11:26:19 AM
agree, the only value is if it wins, period
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#3
Posted: 5/24/2012 11:26:29 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SoundOfBrooklyn:

i hate when people are saying "theres no value on verlander, juice keeps going up." If a team is going to win they are going to win. So what if you lose 10 more dollars in a spot where you think a team should win. Detroit is not worth taking because now they are -170 instead of -160???? That sounds retarted to me. If you think Cle is the better team and were iffy on the bet then I understand not taking detroit when the price goes up. but for people who see a win with verlander on the mound just shut the darn up with the juice talk and take detroit to bust out in this one. the only time there is "VALUE" in baseball is on an underdog that the price is getting better to take. Value doesnt go away in a spot where you think theres a win. 



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#4
Posted: 5/24/2012 11:31:41 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SoundOfBrooklyn:

i hate when people are saying "theres no value on verlander, juice keeps going up." If a team is going to win they are going to win. So what if you lose 10 more dollars in a spot where you think a team should win. Detroit is not worth taking because now they are -170 instead of -160???? That sounds retarted to me. If you think Cle is the better team and were iffy on the bet then I understand not taking detroit when the price goes up. but for people who see a win with verlander on the mound just shut the darn up with the juice talk and take detroit to bust out in this one. the only time there is "VALUE" in baseball is on an underdog that the price is getting better to take. Value doesnt go away in a spot where you think theres a win. 

if you havent realized baseball is a ridiculously long haul of a betting season... that $10 you speak of if you dont lay off certain spots adds up and kills your profit period.  You saying a winner is a winner is a ridiculous statement because longshots win and favorites lose all the time its betting for christs sake...... and o yea its retarded not retarted 
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#5
Posted: 5/24/2012 11:32:03 AM
Totally disagree.

For every game there is a number or a breakeven line that, given that line, you would bet the other way.  How far would you go to bet Det today?  -200?  -300? -1000?  At some point, you would turn that around and take Cle on the other side.  If you are willing to take Det today up to -300 and you get them at -170, then for you, you have found value in that Det -170 play.  It's that simple.

GL
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#6
Posted: 5/24/2012 11:35:57 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by SoundOfBrooklyn:

i hate when people are saying "theres no value on verlander, juice keeps going up." If a team is going to win they are going to win. So what if you lose 10 more dollars in a spot where you think a team should win. Detroit is not worth taking because now they are -170 instead of -160???? That sounds retarted to me. If you think Cle is the better team and were iffy on the bet then I understand not taking detroit when the price goes up. but for people who see a win with verlander on the mound just shut the darn up with the juice talk and take detroit to bust out in this one. the only time there is "VALUE" in baseball is on an underdog that the price is getting better to take. Value doesnt go away in a spot where you think theres a win. 

 

This has nothing to do with the price fluctuating .10 on the line...The bottom line is that value is lost when you are backing a HEAVY road chalk team that has had trouble hitting the ball. Laying juice on over-valued/public backed road teams will do nothing but ruin a bankroll...

That said, are there spots to lay juice in baseball? Even road faves? Absolutely. But, not with a team struggling to get runs at the plate...

 

I'll take +152 @ a minumum investment on a home team vs a team struggling at the plate ANY TIME. Win or lose, that's value

 

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#7
Posted: 5/24/2012 11:42:45 AM
people like this are the ones putting money in the pockets of the rest of us
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#8
Posted: 5/24/2012 11:48:34 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by SoundOfBrooklyn:

i hate when people are saying "theres no value on verlander, juice keeps going up." If a team is going to win they are going to win. So what if you lose 10 more dollars in a spot where you think a team should win. Detroit is not worth taking because now they are -170 instead of -160???? That sounds retarted to me. If you think Cle is the better team and were iffy on the bet then I understand not taking detroit when the price goes up. but for people who see a win with verlander on the mound just shut the darn up with the juice talk and take detroit to bust out in this one. the only time there is "VALUE" in baseball is on an underdog that the price is getting better to take. Value doesnt go away in a spot where you think theres a win. 

If you cannot create a line for yourself, then you wouldn't know if either side has any "value".......Based on my data, I make the Detroit line at -147.  So, should I pay $170 for something worth $147?  On the other hand, if you compute the fair line to be -190 for example, then of course there is "value" at -170......

 

 

 

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#9
Posted: 5/24/2012 11:49:54 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ScreaminPain:

If you cannot create a line for yourself, then you wouldn't know if either side has any "value".......Based on my data, I make the Detroit line at -147.  So, should I pay $170 for something worth $147?  On the other hand, if you compute the fair line to be -190 for example, then of course there is "value" at -170......

 

 

 



^^THIS^^


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#10
Posted: 5/24/2012 11:56:08 AM
I don't agree with the logic of the OP, but I happen to think that this game warrants a -175 line. I got it at -155. I'm happy.
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#11
Posted: 5/24/2012 12:16:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SoundOfBrooklyn:

the only time there is "VALUE" in baseball is on an underdog that the price is getting better to take. Value doesnt go away in a spot where you think theres a win. 


In theory...Wouldn't that make a team whose price is getting worse, worse to take?

Anything can happen in baseball. And if you had the potential to lose 1.5 units, instead of 1.7 (or whatever you would put on a game), I'm pretty sure that you'd take that. Value such as you described is important to those who aren't blinded by their own false sense of invulnerability.

I'm on the Tigers as well. But your poorly articulated argument made me feel obligated to call you a moron. So here goes. You sir, are a moron.
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#12
Posted: 5/24/2012 12:23:43 PM
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SoundOfBrooklyn send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#13
Posted: 5/24/2012 12:35:46 PM
you are missing the point. I am NOT by any means saying detroit is a great bet. my point is if you think its a winner then bet it. and if you think its an iffy game and originally leaning towards detroit but the price goes up then I understand not taking it. you guys act like your professional bettors. maybe im not betting as much as you guys where every single day the couple dollars saved and earned amount to something. i only bet when i really like something. so yes, for the junkie that makes 3-5 wagers every single day, i understand where that .10 does matter. 
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#14
Posted: 5/24/2012 12:42:44 PM

Sorry, but this post is laughable.

If you have no regard for value when betting baseball you will end up losing.

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#15
Posted: 5/24/2012 12:49:02 PM

What if the  line  was -270 ?  -370 ??? -470 ???

 

At  some  point even  you  might conclude that  the  Tigers/Verlander are  just  not worth the  risk.

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#16
Posted: 5/24/2012 12:49:51 PM
Tigers/Verlander at -170 was fine for today Masterson sucks
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#17
Posted: 5/24/2012 12:50:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SoundOfBrooklyn:

you are missing the point. I am NOT by any means saying detroit is a great bet. my point is if you think its a winner then bet it. and if you think its an iffy game and originally leaning towards detroit but the price goes up then I understand not taking it. you guys act like your professional bettors. maybe im not betting as much as you guys where every single day the couple dollars saved and earned amount to something. i only bet when i really like something. so yes, for the junkie that makes 3-5 wagers every single day, i understand where that .10 does matter. 


Just stop and let this post die and get buried on page 15. 
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#18
Posted: 5/24/2012 3:34:22 PM

It's like magic..........every time there is a thread of this nature, the gambling gods make a point and kick the author right in the nuts.  This young grasshopper has much to learn.

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#19
Posted: 5/24/2012 3:39:46 PM
value
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#20
Posted: 5/24/2012 3:43:51 PM
Guys like this probably only bet on names like Verlander.. Sabatia.. King Felix. Roy Halladay, etc.... Indians were a value bet from last night even at +160. "I hate " when people act like they know it all.
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#21
Posted: 5/24/2012 3:49:33 PM
and the shitthy tigers lost again with or without value, so end the topic! lol
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#22
Posted: 5/24/2012 3:59:36 PM
MLB is ALL about value so what are you trying to say?
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#23
Posted: 5/24/2012 4:28:52 PM
Cleveland wins lol!
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