#1 Chicago White Sox/Cleveland Indians Over 8 -105
#2 Chicago White Sox +125
pitching matchup:
J. Danks (White Sox) vs. J. Masterson (Indians)
This is the same situation the last time both these teams and pitchers faced each other. I bet the Over 8.5 and Cleveland won 7-5. I don't see that total going any lower. Both pitchers have not been pitching well. Masterson has a High walk rate of 12.3%, high 4.39 xFIP, 4.80 tERA and 4.57 SIERA. Danks is also performing poorly- 4.62 xFIP, 6.30 tERA and4.73 SIERA. Both teams lineups have seen either pitcher plenty of times and had success against each one. The 2 outtings with these teams and these pitchers: 05/03/12 CWS @ CLE 5-7, 04/11/12 CLE @ CWS 6-10. The conditions for tonight will be a cool 62 degrees and partly cloudy...perfect for hitting. The reason I'm backing Chicago in this one is because the few wins Dank has this season have been on the road and I don't believe Chicago will allow themselves to be swept. He's pitched slightly better on the road @ Cleveland and Seattle, where he had strong run support. Also, for some reason, Masterson has been a victim of horrible bullpen work. In 4 out of 6 of his starts, the bullpen has giving up 13 runs in 11.2 IP.
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#1 Chicago White Sox/Cleveland Indians Over 8 -105
#2 Chicago White Sox +125
pitching matchup:
J. Danks (White Sox) vs. J. Masterson (Indians)
This is the same situation the last time both these teams and pitchers faced each other. I bet the Over 8.5 and Cleveland won 7-5. I don't see that total going any lower. Both pitchers have not been pitching well. Masterson has a High walk rate of 12.3%, high 4.39 xFIP, 4.80 tERA and 4.57 SIERA. Danks is also performing poorly- 4.62 xFIP, 6.30 tERA and4.73 SIERA. Both teams lineups have seen either pitcher plenty of times and had success against each one. The 2 outtings with these teams and these pitchers: 05/03/12 CWS @ CLE 5-7, 04/11/12 CLE @ CWS 6-10. The conditions for tonight will be a cool 62 degrees and partly cloudy...perfect for hitting. The reason I'm backing Chicago in this one is because the few wins Dank has this season have been on the road and I don't believe Chicago will allow themselves to be swept. He's pitched slightly better on the road @ Cleveland and Seattle, where he had strong run support. Also, for some reason, Masterson has been a victim of horrible bullpen work. In 4 out of 6 of his starts, the bullpen has giving up 13 runs in 11.2 IP.
#3 Washington Nationals/Pittsburgh Pirates Under 7.5 -110
pitching matchup:
E. Jackson (Nats) vs. A. Burnett (Pirates)
Got this early yesterday because these 2 teams are Under machines( Washington 11-17, Pittsburgh 7-19). Personally, I believe these 2 teams have the best pitching rotations in the National league. A.J. Burnett...one of the most improved pitchers from last year to this. He has a very good 2.91 xFIP, 67.6% first strike rate and for the first time in 3 years a 51% Ground ball rate. He's making the hitters hit it down. The biggest advantage Burnett has going for him this year is that many national league lineups have barely hit against him. And the Nationals are no exception- only 3 players on the Nats lineup have hit against him (Ankiel, LaRoche, and Zimmerman) going 5-23 (.217 career average). Edwin Jackson has also been a stud. He has a strong 3.36 xFIP, 2.56 tERA, his frist strike rate is 67.4% and his swinging strike rate is a great 13.2%. He's a very deliberate pitcher with a fast PACE. The entire pittsburgh lineup is 10-59 (.220 batting average) against Jackson. Beyond pitching matchups, both the pirates and nationals are poor against right handed pitching. Pittsburgh is ranked 27th and Washington is 19th in batting average against righties; Pittsburgh is last in run production and Washington is 21st against righties. PNC Park in Pittsburgh is also the 6th toughest place to hit a homerun. The poor bats from both pittsburgh and washington combined with the strong pitching with Jackson and Burnett lead me to believe this will be a low scoring affair.
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#3 Washington Nationals/Pittsburgh Pirates Under 7.5 -110
pitching matchup:
E. Jackson (Nats) vs. A. Burnett (Pirates)
Got this early yesterday because these 2 teams are Under machines( Washington 11-17, Pittsburgh 7-19). Personally, I believe these 2 teams have the best pitching rotations in the National league. A.J. Burnett...one of the most improved pitchers from last year to this. He has a very good 2.91 xFIP, 67.6% first strike rate and for the first time in 3 years a 51% Ground ball rate. He's making the hitters hit it down. The biggest advantage Burnett has going for him this year is that many national league lineups have barely hit against him. And the Nationals are no exception- only 3 players on the Nats lineup have hit against him (Ankiel, LaRoche, and Zimmerman) going 5-23 (.217 career average). Edwin Jackson has also been a stud. He has a strong 3.36 xFIP, 2.56 tERA, his frist strike rate is 67.4% and his swinging strike rate is a great 13.2%. He's a very deliberate pitcher with a fast PACE. The entire pittsburgh lineup is 10-59 (.220 batting average) against Jackson. Beyond pitching matchups, both the pirates and nationals are poor against right handed pitching. Pittsburgh is ranked 27th and Washington is 19th in batting average against righties; Pittsburgh is last in run production and Washington is 21st against righties. PNC Park in Pittsburgh is also the 6th toughest place to hit a homerun. The poor bats from both pittsburgh and washington combined with the strong pitching with Jackson and Burnett lead me to believe this will be a low scoring affair.
Alex White is coming up from the Minors for his 2012 debut against the lowly San Diego Padres. In the minors he had a 2.92 ERA, 21 Ks, 8 BBs in 24.2 IP. The Padres' lineup isn't a hell of a lot better than any minor league lineup, lol. Only 3 hitters on the padres lineup have seen White (Barlett, Venable and Hudson) going 2-8 (.250 avg). Suppan had one start so far this year winning 5-0 against milwuakee, but...that doesn't say the whole story. He escaped 2 situations, working his way out of bases-loaded jams in the 2nd and fourth innings with a strand rate of 100% (league average of 70%). There will be regression there and I don't see that happening against a much better hitting team in Colorado who's ranked 5th in hitting against right handed pitchers. Beyond that, the rockies lineup has seen Suppan a number of times and have good success against him. Also, the Padres are the worst hitting team in the major leagues against right handed pitchers.
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#4 Colorado Rockies -116
pitching matchup:
A. White (Rockies) vs. J. Suppan (Padres)
Alex White is coming up from the Minors for his 2012 debut against the lowly San Diego Padres. In the minors he had a 2.92 ERA, 21 Ks, 8 BBs in 24.2 IP. The Padres' lineup isn't a hell of a lot better than any minor league lineup, lol. Only 3 hitters on the padres lineup have seen White (Barlett, Venable and Hudson) going 2-8 (.250 avg). Suppan had one start so far this year winning 5-0 against milwuakee, but...that doesn't say the whole story. He escaped 2 situations, working his way out of bases-loaded jams in the 2nd and fourth innings with a strand rate of 100% (league average of 70%). There will be regression there and I don't see that happening against a much better hitting team in Colorado who's ranked 5th in hitting against right handed pitchers. Beyond that, the rockies lineup has seen Suppan a number of times and have good success against him. Also, the Padres are the worst hitting team in the major leagues against right handed pitchers.
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