Friday 4/27 MLB Plays

Sides: 36-36 (+5.52 units)
Totals: 23-14 (+8.21 units)
Team Totals: 7-4 (+2.70 units)
Overall: (+16.43 units)

Had my best day/night of the season on Thursday. I'll be studying for finals most of this weekend before roadtripping to the Kentucky Derby, so things are gonna be hectic. I'll probably end up taking a day or two off at some point, but not yet.

As always, opinions/comments welcomed...

Seattle +194 (1 unit)
Fourth straight day on the Mariner train. Perhaps it's being away from Safeco, or maybe just a sign that the talent in the lineup is finally meshing together, but this team is HOT. The bullpen is still an issue and Romero is always tough at the Rogers Centre, but c'mon, win or lose, this is a stupid price. Toronto's bats have gone silent and a visit from Blake Beavan probably isn't going to provide the cure. If this loses, so be it, but I'm riding the Seattle train until it derails.

Arizona +126 (1 unit)
Strange, very strange line. Miami's prices have been inflated all month long and their ineptitude against lefties is becoming laughable. I love this play from both the situational and statistical perspectives, as Arizona had a full day off to travel cross-country and will have its entire bullpen available for the first time in awhile. Miami, however, will not, as their guys had a tough workload in three hard-fought games with the Mets. Heath Bell will be sidelined after a 46-pitch outing on Thursday. Zambrano as a favorite is nonsensical and I'll be happy to side with the better lineup and starting pitcher at well-above even money.

Leans:
Kansas City +115, San Diego +100, PIT-ATL Under 7, CHC-PHI Under 7, Houston +137,  WAS RL +1.5

I like Az a lot. 

BOL Today

Ariz analysis is solid! GL

San Diego -104 (1 unit)

BOL Jfen

I like both Arizona and Seattle........GL today JFen

There's no question Romero is tough, especially at home, but he's in line for some major regression. Last season, his .242 BABIP and 79.2% strand rate indicated significant luck and he's off to a similar start this season with a .230 BABIP and 73.5% strand rate. Perhaps it continues, but the torrid Mariners lineup will test his sustainability.

i like all 3 man 

What do you think of the Yankees. Delmon Young got arrested last night in NY.

Arizona and Astros are great plays
M's as way. I will take that price for a team that is hot facing a team that is silent

thanks for taking the time to write up your plays and post jfen.  I really appreciate it, and i know others do as well.  solid start!

jfen thanks for all your help in college b-ball

this team plays better on the road

good luck today JFen.  I will be at the derby as well.  my first time, pretty excited.

I'm with you on Seattle but don't understand the love for Arizona. The stats just don't support a play on the Dbacks, plus they have so many starters on the DL. Marlins hit  over .400 against Saunders over 73 PAs; Ariz. hits < .180 against the Zman over 50+ PAs. Plus Zambrano can hit, Saunders will probably go 0 for 2012.

How do you support a play here when there are so many negatives on the Arizona side? I'm not being critical, Jfen, just trying to understand. Maybe something I'm missing??

Thanks,
RT2

Kansas City TT Over 4 (1 unit) -105

I'd play the full game but have too many concerns about the KC bullpen on the heels of a tiring series in Cleveland. With the team total, though, I get a lineup that has battered Pavano in the past and is as aggressive early in the count as any team in baseball. Pavano throws a ton of strikes (#2 in MLB last year in first pitch strikes) and tries to work ahead of hitters with an extremely hittable first-pitch fastball. It also helps that I think this Kansas City team is poised for some progression to the mean after an astoundingly bad streak of leaving runners on base.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/evaluating-the-royals/#more-84451

Studying for finals and can cap like this, you are a genius!  Thanks JFen!  Please be around in the Fall.

BOL JFEN

RT,

Some valid points raised. I believe Chris Young (and Stephen Drew, who has to play this year) is the only regular on the DL. The sample size against Zambrano is very small - half of the Arizona lineup for this evening has never even seen Big Z. Only Overbay (4-23 lifetime) has more than 10 AB's. Ditto on the other side, where only Infante (5-11) has more than 10 AB's against Saunders. But I'm more interested in Miami's ineptitude against lefties this year: .185 AVG, .222 OBP, and a mindblowing 32.3% strikeout rate. All of those numbers are easily the worst in baseball. Combine that with the health of the bullpen, chemistry issues, and a rested Arizona squad, and I'll be happy to take the Snakes at plus money.

Good luck RT.

Will have to take look at Arizona.

Thanks and GL

Passing. I've been fading the Tigers at every opportunity but have no interest in going against Verlander right now. Potential under lean depending on the umpire.

Thanks and GL...will probably lay off it....maybe 1st 5 on the Marlins.

RT2

Futures Bet:

Tampa Bay AL Pennant +825 (1 unit)
Currently listed 6th in the AL pecking order. Why? I have no idea. Elite starting pitching, the best manager in baseball, and a proven track record of late-season success. I honestly think this is the only team in the American League capable of taking out Texas in a 7-game series.