MLB Monday

Overall : 19-21-0 +0.46 units

Favorites : 4-1-0 +21.62 units

Run Lines : 3-2-0 +8.55 units

Underdogs : 4-8-0 (19.56 units)

Totals : 8-9-0 (21.50 units)

Props : 0-1-0 (8.00 units)

Currently clinging to pennies of profit, but still looking to get going on the bases in 2012.  I've always started slow and this year I jumped in sooner than normal, but I've made some gut selections that were better served on the cutting room floor.  At the risk of contradicting my last sentence, no better time like the present for my combined biggest bet of the season.

Boston Red Sox -148 (15 units to win 10.13)

Boston Red Sox RL Even (10 units to win 10)

Before you ask, yes I've been paying attention to baseball this season and well aware of the turmoil and apparent disconnect among Red Sox nation.  Are they really a bad team?  or is the 4-10 start a product of other uncontrollable factors.  Let's start with how they ended last season... Brutal.  Right there, no carry over success to bring to spring training or into the start of 2012.  There was the drinking drama.  There was finger pointing.  There was Francona as the scapegoat.  Then came the hiring of Bobby V, who was brought in as a veteran to earn the respect of the players.  This is the same Bobby V who went Magnum PI in hte dugout after getting ejected from a game with the Mets. They experimented moving a RP to SP.  There was a pitching coach change.  Their long time closer left for the Phillies.   They brought in a stable closer to fill that hole and he was on the shelf before things even got going.  Speaking of inuries, Elsbury, Crawford, Youk - all have been on the DL or missed some time. Then there was Youk being called out by Bobby V for not hustling or being passionate.  Take all the drama, injuries and change and recognize the Sox opened the season playing teams with a combined 50-28 record. Teams who all rank in the top 4 in HRs and all rank in the top 5 in RBIs in the AL.  The starting pitchers they have faced - Verlander, Fister, Scherzer, Drabek, Romero, Price, Hellickson, Moore, Shields, Lewis, Holland.  Some quality arms.  The Sox have not had the luxury of playing games where they were the better team.  Distraction impacts results when talent is lacking vs. the opponent.  Distraction gets squashed when teams do well.  Teams do well when they are better than their opponent in terms of talent.  The Sox are a talented team, much more so than the Twins.  They face Jason Marquis, who not many of the Sox have faced. But let's be honest, they have seen pitchers who are of the same pedigree as Jason Marquis, so I wouldn't expect them to be caught off guard.  All of that is driving me to a bet on the Red Sox, but what really put me over the top was having Lester on the bump.  I likely don't make this bet with anyone else pitching for the Sox, or if I do, it's not even near a wager this big.  Since 2007, Lester is 15-2 with a 2.13 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in starts following ones where he gave up 5+ earned runs.  Of the 22 starts, he has allowed more than 3 earned runs only three times (13%) and more than 2 earned runs only five times (22%) 

I still think this Sox team will be relevant down the stretch and coming up is Minensota, ChiSox, Oakland, Baltimore, KC, Cleveland and Seattle.  I want to see how they fare in this series @ Minnesota, but I will be placing some cash on the Sox to win the AL East at some point this week. 

Likely have 1-2 more plays to ride along with these two..

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Excellent write-up, Spazzer.  I am on this play as well  -  not as large as you, but it's one of my bigger combined plays of the early year thus far.

Love the Stat on Lester and appreciate you going as far back as 5 years, instead of 3, to actually show the capabilities of The Lefty Lester.


I was going to do a small piece in my thread about the starters that the Red Sox have faced this year  -  find another team in the Major Legaues who have came close to the quality of starting pitching that the Red Sox have faced.  You won't find one.


I also think Jason Marquis isn't going to like the American League so much as this is his fist stint in the AL.  He first faced the Yankees, let up 4ER over 5IP but was lucky the Twins hammered their way into a nice lead after the first couple of innings to pick up the win.  Now tonight, he faces a team who is fully capable of doing what the Yankees did to him, and that's jumping on the scoreboard earlier then the Twins.  Away team ball.  I don't expect the game to go up & down, up & down.  3 run, 4 run lead for Lester, and it should hold.

Again, thanks for the great ink, Spazzer.   

GiL - thanks buddy, appreciate it and agree on both the pitching the Sox have faced and Marquis.

Mike - Sox need a guy like Bard back there

keepitstrict, Manassa, brent, snakebyte - thanks fellas.

henrydaman - Slight lean to the under.  Twins hitting .233 vs lefties this year and opposing lefty starters have a 2.48 ERA against them.  All good ones too, but arguably Lester is the best or near the top of the ones they faced.  I do think the Sox offense gets to Marquis, hence only a slight under lean.